Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,555.89 +.22%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 22,888.04 +.46%

• NASDAQ 6,611.82 +.28%

• Russell 2000 1,504.84 -.42%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.16 +.31%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.39 -1.79%

• Wilshire 5000 26,517.63 +.04%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,283.40 +.64%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,178.13 -.23%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 562.91 +1.62%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3665 -1.20%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,625.60 +.49%

• Transports 9,954.48 +.76%

• Utilities 738.29 +.79%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.55 -1.66%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.39 +2.12%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,247.54 +.20%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,011.14 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 308,249 +.33%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 724 -220

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 53.33 +42.21%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 444,316 -2.16%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,471,226 +2.49%

• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

• OEX Put/Call 1.52 -1.94%

• ISE Sentiment 128.0 +43.68%

• NYSE Arms .81 +3.85%

• Volatility(VIX) 9.67 +5.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 15.97 -10.62%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.70 -1.66%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.09 +2.53%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,920.68 +.17%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.741 Trillion +.01%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$9.792 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 39.8 +11.7%

• AAII % Bears 26.9 -18.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 184.36 +.98%

• Crude Oil 51.03 +4.47%

• Reformulated Gasoline 160.99 +3.92%

• Natural Gas 3.01 +5.06%

• Heating Oil 178.67 +3.13%

• Gold 1,304.0.20 +1.9%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 205.55 +2.14%

• Copper 313.0 +3.64%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 288.33 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 62.53 USD/Ton +.47%

• Lumber 425.0 +2.91%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,036.77 +1.17%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.7 +20.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.2% +50.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.4439 +8.19% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 95.83 +3.32%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 141.66 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.7 +9.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.30 +4.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 85.5% chance of no change, 14.5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/1

• US Dollar Index 93.06 -.89%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,633.56 +.71%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.92 +.29%

• Yield Curve 78.0 -8.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.27% -9.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.420 Trillion -.02%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.78 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 338.13 -.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 5.09 -6.08%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 16.09 -2.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 38.31 -3.21%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.0 +8.78%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 69.56 -.2%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.74 +.02%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 142.30 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 29.25 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.0 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.67 +1.52%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 396.0 -1.28%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.69 -2.11%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 177.53 -.65%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 155.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.540 Trillion +.01%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,063.80 -.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 257,500 -11,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.91% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 405.20 -2.13%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.50 -.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.2% -90.0 basis pointss

• Nationwide Gas $2.48/gallon -.o3/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,458.0 +3.77%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 772.65 -3.81%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 +10.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 285,490 -.49%

Best Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Leading Sectors

• Tobacco +4.1%

• Semis +2.5%

• Robotics +2.1%

• Paper +2.0%

• Steel +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Construction -1.4% 

• Banks -1.6%

• Gaming -2.9%

• Coal -3.1%

• Retail -3.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• ANAB, MTEM, OME, HLF, DERM, OMF and NMIH

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• FLXN, HELE, COST, CZR, AXDX, YEXT, JNPR, PTGX, CUDA, ULTA, KTWO, HAWK and NSTG

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Energy/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 9.63 -2.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.84 -.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 -.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 16.05 -6.58%

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +71.2%
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -.2%

• NYSE Arms .88 -42.12%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.55 -1.49%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 396.0 -1.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.58 -1.1%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.10 +4.3%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.09 -.06%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 177.90 -.22%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 142.30 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 29.25 +.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -41.0 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.93 +.38%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.07% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 78.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.53/Metric Tonne +4.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.90 -3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.70 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.30 -1.1 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -3.0 basis points
  
• 76.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 77.8% chance at Jan. 31 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -.9% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Defense -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NEWT, PCG, TWNK, FRC, CNC, SSYS, AAOI, MOH, SSRM, DDD, GCP, FRC, SGH, ABEO, GLYC and VYGR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SRPT 2) DISH 3) MTZ 4) HUN 5) CNC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATRS 2) PCG 3) TWNK 4) THC 5) MINI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +4.0% 2) Computer Hardware +1.7% 3) Oil Service +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SOHU, FARO, CEVA, SPAR, EQGP, MON, HMNY, XRF, BOX, HPQ, ULTA, MT, HUN, NFLX, ACLS, UNVR, JLL, LCI, X, TSE, RE, UN, LN, NEP, RDUS, ADS, IONS, VIAB and HUN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VIAB 2) OCN 3) BOX 4) CMCSA 5) THC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HPQ 2) ORIG 3) MOS 4) ETH 5) NVDA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +18.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 65.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 210 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 47.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.7%
• Vix 9.7 -2.5%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +11.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 -27.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.50 -.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.67 +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BAC)/.45
• (DFRG)/-.01
• (JBHT)/.97
• (PNC)/2.13
• (WFC)/1.03

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for September is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in August. 
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in August.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for September are estimated to rise +1.7% versus a -.2% decline in August.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for September is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.2% gain in August.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas  for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in August.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for October is estimated to fall to 95.0 versus 95.1 in September.
• Business Inventories for August are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Powell speaking, China Trade Balance report and the (SAFM) investor event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.