Monday, October 30, 2017

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:40 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -1.8% 2) Steel -1.7% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VST, MRK, CTB, AMD, FDC, HTLD, M, BCOR and CENX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UA 2) K 3) MOS 4) W 5) PFE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ODP 2) JCP 3) CENX 4) MRK 5) M
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:14 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +4.4% 2) Oil Service +1.6% 3) Gold & Silver +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ENZY, AAAP, CAA, DYN, MHO, ADMS, JP, MMYT, ALDW, GBT, MCY, MAT, BEDU, CIFS, FSLR, FARO, HUN, OSTK, MEOS, EFII, CNA, CYOU, OMER, AMAN, CELG, ADMS, OMER, ORI and SWKS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HST 2) MET 3) UAA 4) MA 5) OAS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ADMS 2) FARO 3) VR 4) MBII 5) AGN
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:06 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, October 29, 2017

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:18 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • A Missing Piece of the Global Growth Jigsaw Starts to Fall Into Place. A missing piece in the global growth jigsaw appears to be falling into place. Spurred by higher profits and buoyant stock markets, some of the world’s best known companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Volkswagen AG are ramping up spending on new plants and equipment after years of caution. For an international economic expansion already gathering speed, that could prove a boon. The thinking is that capital investment, or capex, will stoke not just demand, but ultimately higher wages and inflation. That’s a positive for central banks and governments yearning to see profits trickle into workers’ pockets. Employers have been reluctant to spend even amid an economic upswing spanning 75 percent of the globe.
  • China Puts the Global Economy’s Health at Risk. It used to be that when America sneezed, the world caught a cold. This time around, it’s the risk of a poorly China that poses a bigger risk. The world’s second-largest economy is now trying to ward off the sniffles. While output is still growing at a pace that sees gross domestic product double every decade, the problem remains that much of that has been fueled by a massive buildup of credit. Total borrowing climbed to about 260 percent of the economy’s size by the end of 2016, up from 162 percent in 2008, and will hit close to 320 percent by 2021 according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates. Economy-wide debt levels are on track to rank among "the highest in the world," according to Tom Orlik, BI’s Chief Asia Economist.
  • Spanish Envoy: Catalan Leader Out of a Job "No Matter What". Catalonia's deposed leader is now out of a job "no matter what he says" but could run in December's early regional election if he hasn't been imprisoned by then, Spain's foreign minister said Sunday. Alfonso Dastis told The Associated Press that Catalonia's civil servants won't recognize former regional leader Carles Puigdemont's authority if he ignores the Spanish government's orders and tries to come back to work on Monday.
  • Taliban Kill 28 Afghan Police as Attacks Escalate Nationwide. Taliban militants stormed police checkpoints late Saturday and before dawn Sunday in three provinces of Afghanistan, killing 28 policemen in the latest in a series of attacks across the country. Tens of heavily equipped insurgents, including holders of night-vision rifles, initially began sporadic shooting at three police checkpoints and two army bases on the highway leading to Khan Abad district in northern Kunduz province, said Hayatullah Amiri, the governor of the district, by phone. At about 3 a.m. local time, they stormed one of the police checkpoints, killing all 13 officers stationed there except one who fled.
  • Anti-Muslim Party Poised for Success in Queensland Snap Election. A snap election in Australia’s Queensland is poised to show a surge in support for populists in the traditionally conservative state. Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk asked the state’s acting governor to dissolve parliament on Sunday before announcing a Nov. 25 vote. The election is likely to be tight, with the balance of power potentially going to Pauline Hanson’s anti-Muslim immigration party One Nation: its estimated 18 percent support state-wide may be even higher among disaffected voters in regional areas.
  • Asian Stocks Nudge Higher on Global Growth Outlook. Asian stocks rose as better-than-expected U.S. growth data added to evidence of improving global economic health, with investors awaiting key earnings results and an announcement on who will helm the Federal Reserve. Equities in Australia and South Korea climbed and Japan’s Topix index hovered around the highest since 2007 following another record for the S&P 500 Index Friday. Profit reports due this week from some of the world’s largest companies may show if there’s enough juice in the earnings season to propel another leg higher for global shares. Bond and currency markets continue to be gripped by speculation around who U.S. President Donald Trump will choose as the next Fed chair, with Governor Jerome Powell said to be the front-runner. Japan’s Topix index was flat as of 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.3 percent in most recent trading.
  • Three Crucial Things We Still Don't Know About the Aramco IPO. The financiers and corporate chieftains gathered for Saudi Arabia’s ‘Davos in the Desert’ heard the same message again and again. From the crown prince down, Saudi leaders wanted no room for doubt: the initial public offering of oil giant Aramco is "on track" for 2018.
  • Everyone's a Metals Bull as the Global Economic Engine Fires Up. Global growth is on a tear, and that can only be positive for metals prices. That’s the message coming from the industry ahead of LME Week. For the first time in years, optimism is widespread among traders, smelters, miners and brokers gathering in London, buoyed by a combination of strong growth across the world’s key demand centers, supply curbs in China and a return of investor interest. "The global economy looks much better than it has done probably since the crisis, maybe before that," said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group Pte, the second-largest metals trader. "I’m pretty bullish."
Wall Street Journal:
  • Why Are Markets Rising Everywhere? Investors Can’t Stop Buying Every Dip. Markets around the globe are surging to records, reflecting growing optimism about the world economy and fueling an increasing eagerness by investors to step in and buy assets whenever prices dip.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.63 +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CNA)/.49
  • (DO)/.20
  • (D)/1.02
  • (IPI)/-.03
  • (L)/.19
  • (AVB)/2.17
  • (CBI)/.53
  • (CGNX)/1.03
  • (MDLZ)/.54
  • (RCII)/-.02
  • (VNO)/.52
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in August.
  • Personal Spending for September is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.1% gain in August.
  • The PCE Core MoM for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in August.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for October is estimated to fall to 21.0 versus 21.3 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Industrial Production report, German CPI report and the Japan Jobless Rate report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 7:43 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on tax reform hopes, yen weakness, earnings outlooks, technical buying, short-covering and economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, October 28, 2017

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 8:51 PM
Bloomberg:
  • For Catalans, the Question Is Compliance or Defiance of Madrid. Normal weekend routines like shopping, soccer and strolling prevailed in Catalonia even as the first test of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s decision to take over the breakaway region approached, with Catalans weighing compliance versus defiance. When schools and government offices open Monday, teachers and civil servants will decide whether to follow the ousted Catalan leaders’ calls to resist their Spanish masters or acquiesce to the new reality. A smooth transition in the Catalan police force, with the new chief accepting Madrid’s rule, marked an initial success for Rajoy.
  • House Tax Writer Gives Ground on State and Local Tax Break. Bowing to concerns from Republican House members in high-tax states, the chamber’s chief tax writer said he’ll preserve a federal income-tax break for property taxes. “At the urging of lawmakers, we are restoring an itemized property tax deduction to help taxpayers with local tax burdens,” House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said in a statement Saturday afternoon.
  • Oil Investors Roll the Dice on OPEC After Saudi Prince Ups the Ante. The OPEC trade is back, and Saudi Arabia is in the driver’s seat. Just before the de facto OPEC leader doubled down on its plan to drain the oil glut, propelling Brent crude prices beyond $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015, hedge funds were almost as bullish on the global benchmark as they’ve ever been. Short-sellers retreated to levels last seen in February, when OPEC production cuts were fueling an oil price surge.
  • The FANG Health Scare Ends With a Bang. (video) All year, people have wondered if something was wrong with the market. Volatility was gone, stocks hardly moved. On Friday, they moved, though maybe not in the direction everyone was expecting. Not content with all the tiny gains that were lifting equities toward the best year since 2013, traders emboldened by a scorching dose of tech earnings sent the Nasdaq 100 Index to its biggest rally in 19 months. About $185 billion was added to the market cap of the five largest companies alone, a rally reminiscent of the glory days of the tech bubble. The surge ended a brief bout of nerves caused by a run of down days in technology megacaps. It left the Nasdaq 100 up 28 percent in 2017, its best performance relative to the S&P 500 Index since the start of the bull run.
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (CELG), (MSFT), (ORCL), (CSCO), (BABA), (TGT), (SHPG), (BIIB), (AMGN) and (GILD).
Zero Hedge:
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