Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Asia Stocks Rally After Recovery in U.S. Equities. (video) Asian equity markets recovered some of the losses sustained in the global rout after U.S. shares rallied amid a welter of calls to "buy the dip." The dollar and Treasuries were steady. Japan’s benchmarks jumped about 3 percent at the open and stocks also rose in Sydney and Seoul. A topsy-turvy session for the S&P 500 Index ended with technology, materials and consumer shares leading a 1.7 percent advance. The benchmark for U.S. share volatility went through wild gyrations one day after more than doubling, though ended the session down almost 20 percent. Japan’s Topix index advanced 3.2 percent as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 3.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1 percent. The Kospi index in South Korea was up 0.9 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent.
  • Buying the Dip Works Nicely, a 30-Year History of Routs Shows. As the dust settles for now after the turmoil of the last few days, a chorus of buy-the-dip calls from fund managers and strategists is still ringing in equity investors’ ears. History suggests they have a point. An analysis by Schroders Plc of the 10 biggest one-day stock declines in the past 30 years showed the U.S. stock market returned about 25 percent on average in the following 12 months. For the following five-year period, average annual total returns were about 14 percent, according to the calculations.
  • Inside Wall Street's $8 Billion VIX Time Bomb. It was the hot trade on Wall Street, a seemingly sure thing that lulled everyone from hedge fund managers to small-time investors. Now newfangled investments linked to volatility in the stock market -- until a few years ago, obscure niche products -- have exploded in spectacular fashion. The shock waves have only just begun.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +2.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -3.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.81 +.07%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +1.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.19%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (CTSH)/.96
  • (HAIN)/.43
  • (HUM)/2.00
  • (ICE)/.72
  • (JEC)/.74
  • (JLL)/4.20
  • (KORS)/1.29
  • (STE)/1.07
  • (FOXA)/.39
  • (ALL)/1.53
  • (COHR)/3.52
  • (FLO)/.14
  • (IAC)/.93
  • (NTES)/2.33
  • (ORLY)/2.78
  • (PRU)/2.64
  • (RMAX)/.50
  • (RGLD)/.41
  • (TSLA)/-3.15
  • (YELP)/.27
  • (TDW)/-.77
  • (TTWO)/.99
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,233,330 barrels versus a +6,776,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +277,780 barrels versus a -1,980,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,511,110 barrels versus a -1,940,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.09% versus a -2.8% decline the prior week.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for December is estimated to fall to $20.0B versus $27.951B in November.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, China Foreign Reserves report, $24B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Financial Services Symposium, Cowen Aerospace/Defense/Industrials conference and the (ZUMZ)/(COST) monthly sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Yen Weakness, Road&Rail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.0 -19.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.25 +.41%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.92 +3.36%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.32 +7.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 +100.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +9.89%
  • NYSE Arms .62 -82.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 +.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 359.0 -4.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 48.0 +5.82%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.50 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.63 +6.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 119.95 -3.71%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.34 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 27.75 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.73 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.51% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 68.25 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.31 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.10 -1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.90 +5.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 -.7 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 -2.0 basis points
  • 96.3% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 98.6% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +470 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +76 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +169 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal: