Monday, February 12, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Japan Catches Up With a Rebound in Global Stocks. Shares in Tokyo advanced, as did those in Seoul and Sydney, while Hong Kong futures tipped a firmer open. The Cboe Volatility Index fell as the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest two-day advance in 18 months, but traders were still on edge following the tumultuous moves last week that wiped $2 trillion from U.S. stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield was steady after falling back from touching 2.89 percent, and the dollar remained under pressure. West Texas Intermediate oil remained under $60 a barrel. Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.4 percent as of 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.9 percent. Markets were closed on Monday for National Foundation Day. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent. The Kospi index was up 0.7 percent in Seoul. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.6 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent. The underlying measures rose 1.4 percent, extending Friday’s 1.5 percent gain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index edged up after a 1.2 percent rally Monday.
  • VIX Manipulation Costs Investors Billions, Whistle-Blower Says. A whistle-blower told U.S. regulators that a scheme to manipulate the VIX, the volatility gauge thrust into the spotlight last week during a wild trading session, costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month. A Washington-based lawyer told the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission -- the nation’s top markets regulators -- in a letter Monday that his client found a flaw that allows traders “with sophisticated algorithms to move the VIX up or down by simply posting quotes on S&P options and without needing to physically engage in any trading or deploying any capital.” Billions in purportedly ill-gotten profits have been scooped up by “unethical electronic option market makers,” according to the letter.
Wall Street Journal: 
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.5 -.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.13 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.45%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (AB)/.65
  • (DBD)/.35
  • (MLM)/1.46
  • (PEP)/1.30
  • (SINA)/.82
  • (UAA)/.00
  • (WB)/.58
  • (BIDU)/2.08
  • (FOSL)/.40
  • (MET)/.73
  • (OXY)/.41
  • (TEX)/.25
  • (TRUP)/.01
  • (TWLO)/-.06
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January is estimated to rise to 105.3 versus 104.9 in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Japan GDP report, UK CPI/PPI reports, weekly US retail sales reports, Suntrust Orphan Drug Day, Stifel Transport/Logistics Conference and the Goldman Tech/Internet Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Stable Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.96 -10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.11 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.02 -3.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.76 +2.01%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +65.7%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -30.30%
  • NYSE Arms .66 +14.33%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.53 -4.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 397.0 -2.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.17 -.92%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.40 -2.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 130.83 -4.55%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.40 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.25 +5.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.13 +.46%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.57% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 78.50 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.50 -3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.50 -3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +318 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Stocks Extend Advance as Treasuries Recover. (video) U.S. stocks advanced as Treasury yields erased most of their climb, with financial markets looking to stabilize after the worst week in two years for American equities. The S&P 500 Index extended gains as the 10-year yield fell back from the four-year high hit earlier Monday. The Nasdaq Composite Index turned positive for the year and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was almost there. Stocks and bonds have been in a tug-of-war since a blowout jobs report sent Treasury yields spiking, raising the specter of higher interest rates this year. The S&P 500 Index rose 1.7 percent as of 2:27 p.m. in New York. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.2 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index added 1.2 percent, the most since April. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.2 percent.
  • Tech ETF Hit by the Largest Outflows Since the Dot-Com Crash. The rout in U.S. stocks last week spurred the heaviest withdrawals since the 2000 dot-com crash for the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking U.S. technology shares. Investors yanked almost $4 billion from the $56 billion PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF in the five days ended Feb. 9, outpacing redemptions at the depths of the financial crisis. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, the world’s biggest fund, saw a record $23.6 billionof outflows.
  • Bitcoin Risks Crashing to $900 If Dot-Com Mania Is Any Guide. (video)
  • Morgan Stanley(MS) Strategist Who Predicted Volatility Says Buy Now. (video)
  • Citi(C), Goldman(GS) Plan ETFs Tied to Riskiest Bank Bonds.
Wall Street Journal: