Friday, August 17, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,853.88 +.75%





















The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,696.40 +1.53%
  • NASDAQ 7,821.03 -.24%
  • Russell 2000 1,693.49 +.41%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 43.83 -.43%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 170.79 -1.08%
  • Wilshire 5000 29,622.0 +.60%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,515.71 +.38%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,239.99 +1.03%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 564.12 +3.28%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.6008 -2.38%
  • NYSE Technology 1,853.75 -2.14%
  • Transports 11,232.70 +1.29%
  • Utilities 744.28 +2.89%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 84.98 -3.05%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.99 -3.25%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,255.09 -1.10%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,007.62 +.24%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 329,063 -.17%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -184 -258
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.44 -22.24%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 608,927 -.73%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,342,575 -.28%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 -15.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.98 +261.70%
  • ISE Sentiment 240.0 +161.54%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -48.90%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.46 -4.41%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.31 -7.07%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.88 -1.62% 
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.48 +2.72%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,313.82 +.49%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.860 Trillion -.13%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.407 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 36.2 -.5%
  • AAII % Bears 29.1 -6.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 188.74 -1.54%
  • Crude Oil 66.02 -2.60%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 198.10 -2.93%
  • Natural Gas 2.95 +.38%
  • Heating Oil 210.15 -2.06%
  • Gold 1,183.30 -2.57%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.30 -4.15%
  • Copper 266.40 -3.17%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 324.33 USD/Metric Tonne -5.08%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.60 USD/Metric Tonne -2.06%
  • Lumber 472.50 +13.72%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 932.70 +.13%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.25% -5.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .3% -30.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0782 -1.26%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 17.63 -83.84%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 171.62 +.26%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.30 -4.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.30 +16.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.4 -6.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 10.0% chance of no change, 90.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/26
  • US Dollar Index 96.30 +.03%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,591.31 -.71%
  • Bitcoin/USD 6,509.82 +5.53%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.32 -.42%
  • Yield Curve 24.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.86%-1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.190 Trillion -.68%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.10 +13.22%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.38 +2.86%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 281.5 +13.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 11.10 +4.73%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 147.60 +39.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 69.97 +.5%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.08 -.98%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 163.02 -4.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.75 -.05%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.0 -1.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.74 +1.16%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 415.0 +11.98%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.60 +2.90%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 205.98 +3.86%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.649 Trillion -.56%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,055.30 -1.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 215,500 +1,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.53% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 335.80 -1.96%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.9 -.4 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.50% +30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.85/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,720.0 +1.72%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 831.29 +.91%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 285,169 -2.03%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Telecom +3.2%
  • Utilities +2.9%
  • Foods +2.7%
  • Healthcare Providers +2.3%
  • Restaurants +2.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Social Media -4.3% 
  • Shipping -4.5%
  • Education -4.5%
  • Oil Service -6.6%
  • Gold & Silver -12.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (2)
  • CATM and RYAM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)
  • EAF, THO, GILD, AMAT and TSLA
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Retail/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.52 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.48 +2.55%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.71 -4.84%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 259.0 +99.23%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +9.68%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -30.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.17 -.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 414.0 +1.96%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.80 +1.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 281.5 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.10 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.23 +.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.75 -.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.53 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.03% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.19 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.30 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.30 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.40 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  • 92.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.5% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +136 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -1.0% 2) Internet -.7% 3) Alt Energy -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DESP, ATGE, AMAT, NVDA, DSW, TSLA, CWH and GGAL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FL 2) GERN 3) AMAT 4) LB 5) KR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ATGE 2) DSW 3) DF 4) DESP 5) BXG
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Telecom +1.0% 2) Gold & Silver +1.0% 3) Agriculture +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ZOES, JWN, PAR, CGC, DE, YRD, SAIL, WPM, AIN, MGP, ESPR, GOLD, BGSF, MTZ, WUBA, SNY, KL, RYAM, IIN, NEWA, AIMC, PCG, ADUS, PNW and CATM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JWN 2) WPX 3) PAGP 4) PPL 5) WY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JWN 2) FRO 3) DE 4) KR 5) FDC
Charts: