Friday, December 14, 2018

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,604.80 -1.38%


























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 24,093.80 -1.08%
  • NASDAQ 6,926.56 -.57%
  • Russell 2000 1,415.42 -2.41%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 36.83 -1.67%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 142.88 -4.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 26,726.10 -1.33%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,164.66 -.78%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,139.82 -2.09%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 555.83 -.45%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 981.46 -.56%
  • NYSE Technology 1,638.81 +.49%
  • Transports 9,532.45 -4.19%
  • Utilities 756.56 +.36%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.64 +.28%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.93 -.64%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,171.64 -.32%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 976.16 +.28%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 318,350 -.83%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -875 +666
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 48.3 -13.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 330,146 -5.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,048,735 +1.42%
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 -9.65%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.07 -53.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 99.0 +23.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -36.89%
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.19 -3.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.58 +9.49%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.83 -5.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.97 -1.48%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,794.50 -5.59%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.003 Trillion +2.0%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.391 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 20.9 -44.9%
  • AAII % Bears 48.9 +60.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 180.31 -2.08%
  • Crude Oil 51.16 -1.96%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 143.81 -2.41%
  • Natural Gas 3.81 -15.37%
  • Heating Oil 184.58 -1.85%
  • Gold 1,242.90 -.91%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.63 -1.86%
  • Copper 275.65 +.31%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 301.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.59 USD/Metric Tonne +5.79%
  • Lumber 321.60 -3.26%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 938.38 -.52%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.38% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.9% +20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% +33.33%
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1896 +2.32%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 191.49 +41.61%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 174.52 -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.30 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -76.20 -27.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +3.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.7% chance of no change, 72.3% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/19
  • US Dollar Index 97.48 +.82%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,608.22 -.21%
  • Bitcoin/USD 3,179.08 -5.83%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.20 -.12%
  • Yield Curve 15.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.89% +3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.049 Trillion +.06%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.15 +.19%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.44 -.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 268.75 -19.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 9.71 -1.08%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 85.40 -5.76%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.53 -3.51%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.61 -5.18%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 146.56 -8.5%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.60 +1.0%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% -8.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.75 +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +5.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.79 -5.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 662.0 -3.7%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 102.44 -5.98%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 198.63 -3.97%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.832 Trillion +3.57%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,090.10 +1.4%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 224,750 -3,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.63% -12.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 346.0 +1.62%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.4 -.9 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.60% -20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.39/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,365.0 -.51%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 854.65 -.19%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -11.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 303,225 +3.3%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Semis +3.1%
  • Gaming 3.0%
  • Networking +2.5%
  • Internet +2.1%
  • Software +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Healthcare Providers -2.3% 
  • Papers -3.1%
  • Airlines -3.2%
  • Banks -4.4%
  • Oil Service -7.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)
  • MDRX, PRMW and SCG
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)
  • AB, AMG, UNFI, JEF, MDCO, KBR, ADBE, COST, LASR and CVRR
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Mueller Probe Worries, Earnings Jitters, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.8 +5.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.18 -.72%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.97 -.89%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.85 +1.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 +8.08%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 -12.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.29 +57.32%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.06 +2.58%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 668.0 -.30%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.74 +2.61%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 268.75 +1.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.71 +3.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.57 +.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.60 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.66 -.49%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.50 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -76.20 -32.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 -2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83-1.0 basis point
  • 74.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 83.2% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -114 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long