Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.6% 2) Gold & Silver -.4% 3) Education -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AXGN, SRPT, PCG, COLL, SEM, MYGN, WTW and DPLO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BMRN 2) AET 3) PCG 4) EPD 5) HCLP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PCG 2) HCLP 3) MAXR 4) EIX 5) MO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.5% 2) Retail +3.7% 3) Biotech +3.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LXFT, LOXO, NOBL, SAGE, INSM, SLRC, ROKU, IGV, RETA, BPT, AUDC, TEAM, TCGP, ASND, TTP, IIIV, EXAS, UBIO, DORM, SXI, TYG, IYZ, LGIH, EOLS, EVTC, NVTA, BPMC, ARRY, MAT, SAFM, GPS, USAC, MODN and CELG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CPE 2) SAGE 3) RCL 4) MAT 5) CVNA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MDR 2) CDEV 3) MGI 4) PPDF 5) ATUS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 82.3% of Issues Advancing, 16.4% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 15.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8%
• Vix 21.2 -.9%
• Total Put/Call .85 -6.6%
• TRIN/Arms .89 +134.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Seven Key Issues to Determine Success of U.S.-China Trade Talks.  

• China’s Latest Move to Cushion Its Economy Won’t Be the Last, Economists Say.

• May Fights for Brexit Deal, Warns of Second Referendum Risk.

• Germany Seeks U.S. Assistance After Hacking Breach: Report. 

• Stocks in Asia Rise on Fed, China Policy Boost. Stocks across Asia kicked off the week with strong gains after soothing Federal Reserve comments and an easing of monetary policy in China triggered a renewed appetite for risk assets. Treasuries steadied after Friday’s slide and oil extended its recent rebound. Shares in Japan led the charge, with advances also in Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia. U.S. futures climbed, signaling Friday’s rally in U.S. stocks could continue. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policy is flexible and officials are “listening carefully” to financial markets, while the People’s Bank of China cut the required reserves for banks. Australian bond yields surged after the yield on 10-year Treasuries soared back to 2.67 percent on Friday. Sentiment may also be helped as the U.S. and China reopen trade talks. Japan’s Topix index rose 3.2 percent as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.5 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects This Year.

• Goldman Says to Bet on Weaker U.S. Dollar After Powell Comments.   

• Markets Are Too Bearish Given Robust Economy, UBS's Weber Says.

• Pelosi and Democratic Leaders Tread Carefully on Impeachment.  

• Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund Returned 14.6% Last Year.

Wall Street Journal:

• White House Signals Flexibility on Concrete Border Wall.

• A Soda Tax and Consequences.

• Trade Tensions Take a Toll on China’s Economy.

• Among the Growing Risks Investors Are Assessing: Their Own Fear.

• Bolton Says U.S. Withdrawal From Syria Is Conditional.

• Have I Got a Fund For You! Why Brokers Push Some Investments.

Fox News:

• GOP's Scalise halts tax debate with Ocasio-Cortez after 'radical followers' tweet about shooting.

• Trump digs out old Obama, Clinton comments to boost his push for wall.

CNBC:

• Here’s what Wall Street bankers think Apple should buy, if Tim Cook decides to go deal hunting.

• These 9 retail brands are the ones to watch in 2019.

Zero Hedge:         

• Key Democrat Admits Trump Has Authority To Declare National Emergency To Build Wall.

• Did China Just Hint At A New "Shanghai Accord"?

• "China, China, China" - Acting US SecDef Succinctly Summarizes World's Biggest Threat.

• Schumer Snubs Trump "Wall" Memes As White House Offers "Fence" Compromise.

• The Steele Dossier Was Planned As Hillary's Insurance Policy.

• Cuban Crickets Blamed For Brain-Melting Sonic Embassy Attacks.

• More "Project Fear": May Warns 'No Deal' Brexit Would Leave UK In "Uncharted Territory".

• "The Criminals Who Run The Deep State Will Be Exposed": Kim Dotcom Teases "Next Round Of Leaks".

• Clinton Crony Says Bernie Supporters Must Be Silenced For 2020 Primaries.

• Iran And Russia To Hold Joint Naval Exercises In Caspian Sea.

• Macron's Approval Rating Shrinks To 25% Despite Concessions To Protesters.

• Mass Exodus: More People Left New Jersey Than Any Other State In 2018.

• A Visual History Of The 20 Internet Giants That Ruled The Web From 1998 To 2018.

• Global Housing Markets From Hong Kong To Sydney Join Global Rout.

Business Insider:

• 'This isn't a done deal': New York City Council speaker Corey Johnson lays out his plan to avoid being 'played' by Amazon.

• San Francisco prices are so out of control that one hotel is charging the equivalent of $21.25 for a cup of coffee during a JPMorgan conference.

• Nancy Pelosi defended Rashida Tlaib after the freshman congresswoman said Democrats would 'impeach the motherf---er' in reference to Trump.

• Warren Buffett may be getting ready to pounce on more Apple(AAPL) shares.

• The blowout jobs report seems to 'make a mockery' of recession fears, economist says.

• Artificial intelligence will be a major theme at the world's largest tech show next week.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.0 -5.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index n/a.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.95 +.18%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures +.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CMC)/.35

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 59.5 versus 60.7 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US/China trade talks, China Trade Data report, Eurozone Retail Sales report, CES 2019 and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on technical buying, China trade deal optimism, dovish FOMC commentary, diminished global growth fears, oil strength and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Trump Likely to Meet With China’s Vice President in Davos: Report.  

• World's Riskiest Assets Suddenly Seem a Whole Lot More Appealing.

• Ocasio-Cortez Suggests 70% Ultra-Rich Tax Could Pay for Climate Plan.

• Maxine Waters Won’t Please Everyone, Even Some Fellow Democrats.

• CES Will Be Awash With Voice-Activated Gadgets. Will They Sell?  

• Hedge Funds That Returned 20% Show All Is Not Lost.  

• Bernanke Plays Down Stocks Selloff, Dismisses Crisis Comparison.   

• Shutdown Stalemate, Pelosi’s Chance, EU Skeptics: Weekend Reads.

• Trump Goes After Pharma on Twitter as Companies Increase Prices.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Considers Declaring Emergency to Build Border Wall.

• Apple and the Art of Guidance.

• Your Ice Cream Will Ride in a Self-Driving Car Before You Do.

• U.S. Added 312,000 Jobs in December.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (AAPL), (SMM), (VYM), (T), (MS), (DXC), (MYL), (NAV) and (AMLP).

MarketWatch.com:

• Get to the airport early: Government shutdown could double security lines as TSA agents call out sick.

• Manufacturing employment in the U.S. is at the same level as 69 years ago. 

• It’s time to buy stocks again, these encouraging signs are telling strategists. 

• This is how much money is sitting on the sidelines waiting to come back to the market.

• The biggest stock-market winners and losers on the best day for jobs news in 10 months.

• Bitcoin on track for 10th consecutive session below $4,000.

• Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands(LB) among 7 retailers Wells Fargo is backing in 2019.

Fox News

• Dem 2020 hopefuls meet with Hillary, hope for valuable endorsement – provided she doesn’t run.

• BRETT VELICOVICH: Bad news for Dems, Americans want border security. 

• Hundreds pay tribute to California cop who was gunned down after stopping an illegal immigrant.

CNBC:  

• Wall Street expects Amazon to bounce back after the stock suffered its worst quarter in a decade.

• Gavin Newsom takes the reins as California’s newly-elected governor on Monday, but some are already worried about the cost of his ‘list of promises’. 

• Lowe’s(LOW) looks to hire 65,000 new employees in tightest labor market in decades.

• The Fed may have just set the Trump rally back on its course, says Jim Cramer.

• Dow jumps more than 700 points, propelled by Powell’s comments and a blowout jobs report.

• Cramer reveals some of his favorite Dow stocks for 2019.

• Shares of Boeing and AMD will rise 50% over the next three years, tech investor predicts.

• The market is at a bottom, says Raymond James’ Jeff Saut.

Zero Hedge:

• Macron Arrests "Yellow Vest" Organizer In Escalation Which Will Surely Calm Things Down.

• President Xi Orders Chinese Army To "Prepare For War".

• After Introducing Mass Migration To Europe, Germany Now Bribing Foreigners To Leave.

• Chinese Professor Censored After Admitting Real GDP Growth Is Below 2%.

• How China Colonized An Entire Continent Without Firing A Single Shot.

• France Ablaze Again; Yellow Vests Rage After Founder Arrested; Cops Punched, Tear Gas Deployed.

• Heavy Duty Truck Orders Tumble 43% To Two Year Low.

• "A Tectonic Shift In China's Economy Has Largely Gone Unnoticed By Investors".

• UK Welcomes Extremists, Bans Critics Of Extremists.

• AI Program Taught Itself How To 'Cheat' Its Human Creators.

• Murders In Washington, D.C. Jump 40% In 2018.

• Free Speech Crushed In Socialist Venezuela — Again.

• PG&E Shares Plunge 30% On Reports Of Possible Bankruptcy Filing.

• GE Shares Rally On Report Apollo Weighing $40 Billion Bid For Aircraft-Leasing Unit.

• Forget El Nino, StormFest Is about To Hit The West Coast.

• Congresswoman Flees From Reporters Asking About "Impeach The Motherfu*ker" Comment.

• "Radical" Ocasio-Cortez Teases 70% Tax On Super Wealthy; Compares Self To Lincoln, FDR.

• "Impeach The Mother-F**ker" - On First Day In Office, Muslim Congresswoman Slams Trump.

• Stocks Soar On Powell Promise, Jobs Juice.

Business Insider:

• Chinese schoolkids are being tracked and monitored through tech implanted inside their 'smart uniforms'.

• China says 'social and economic consequences' will follow projected population peak of 1.44 billion in 2029.

• Apple(AAPL) is about to have a big year — here's what to expect it to launch in 2019.