Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on China trade deal worries, global growth fears,  Brexit concerns, technical selling, yen strength and oil weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• The Global Economy Just Had a Rough Week.   

• China Warns U.S. That Trade Deal Enforcement Must Be ‘Two-Way’.

• China Factory Prices Stabilize in February Amid Deflation Risk.

• Bond Investors Are Daring to Whisper About a Return to Fed QE.

• Goldman Cops to Misstep on Dollar Call, Eyes Yen Trade Instead.

• Warren Says Breaking Up Tech Giants Will Keep Market Competitive.

• Powell, Fed Colleagues Stress Pause in March.

Wall Street Journal:

• Consumers Love Food Delivery. Restaurants and Grocers Hate It.

• Care.com Puts Onus on Families to Check Caregivers’ Backgrounds—With Sometimes Tragic Outcomes.

• U.S. Hiring Pullback Taps Brakes on Economic Expansion.

• February Jobs Scare.

• U.S.-China Trade Talks Hit a Bump.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (DAL), (COT), (RIG), (ESV), (RDC) and (DO).

MarketWatch.com:

• Deutsche Bank agrees to informal merger talks with Commerzbank.

• You may soon own more stocks than you’d like in the rigged Chinese market.

Fox News:

• CNN to be sued for more than $250M over 'vicious' and 'direct attacks' on Covington student: lawyer.

• Omar claims Obama comments twisted – but own audio says otherwise.

• GINGRICH: Pelosi's grip slips as AOC, radical youngsters seize control of Dems.

CNBC:

• Beijing is worried that Trump may walk away from the table, like he did with North Korea.

• FDA chief Scott Gottlieb’s resignation leaves ‘billion-dollar question’ for CBD industry. 

• These high-yielding stocks are beating the market this year.

Zero Hedge:  

• Cohen 'Coached' By Schiff Staffers Prior To Anti-Trump Testimony: Report.

• Grand Jury Slaps Jussie Smollett With 16 Felony Counts In Hate-Crime Hoax.

• Government-To-Facebook Pipeline Reveals A Corrupt Mix Of Social Media & The State.

• Backlash: Hedge Fund Kicks Out Family That Makes OxyContin.

• UK's Socialized Healthcare (NHS) Satisfaction Hits An 11-Year Low.

• The Progressive Zombification Of Europe's Banks.

• Democrats Vote To Give Illegal Immigrants The Right To Vote.

• Prosecutors Charge Alleged Masterminds Of $4 Billion Crypto Pyramid Scheme.

• China's Social Credit System Just Blocked Tens Of Millions Of Plane And Train Tickets.

• UN Panel Says North Korea Obtained $670 Million In Crypto & Fiat Via Hacking: Report.

• FedEx(FDX) Unveils Delivery Bot, Aimed At Last-Mile Efficiencies, Gig-Economy Delivery Jobs Feared.

• China Auto Sales Crash in February Amid Accelerating Industry Collapse.

• Illinois' Progressive Income Tax Proposal Falls $2 Billion Short Of Revenue Estimates.

• Ex-NY Official And Wife Convicted In Multimillion-Dollar Bribery Case Involving De Blasio Fundraiser.

• Global Warming A "Hoax And Scam" Pushed By Greedy Government Scientists: Greenpeace. Co-Founder.

• Stocks Slide On Report Xi Has Removed Mar-A-Lago Trip From Calendar.

• Nobody Believes This Market: 2019 Is Now The Worst Year For Stock Outflows Since 2008.

• Ilhan Omar Blasts Obama For "Caging Of Kids" Along Border, 'Getting Away With Murder' Overseas.

• Trannies Tumble To Worst Losing Streak Since Nixon As Yields Hit 2019 Lows.

Business Insider:

• 'It feels like a morgue': Tesla employees say morale has fallen drastically as stores close and workers are let go.

• 20 products and apps we swear by to fall asleep faster, stay asleep longer, and wake up well-rested.

• Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz warned at SXSW that Donald Trump might win again if he competes with a progressive candidate like Bernie Sanders.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,732.61 -2.55%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,402.96 -2.51%

• NASDAQ 7,399.52 -2.69%

• Russell 2000 1,518.92 -4.43%

• S&P 500 High Beta 39.87 -4.64%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 155.32 -6.92%

• Wilshire 5000 28,282.29 -2.65%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,452.05 -2.72%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,186.70 -2.52%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 553.44 -.96%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,053.76 +.40%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,770.33 -2.97%

• Transports 10,070.33 -3.73%

• Utilities 762.21 +.41%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.87 -3.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.82 -1.9%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,211.24 -.47%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 962.81 +.07%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 338,369 -.85%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -92 -197

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.43 -39.4%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 327,671 +4.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,025,884 +.33%

• Total Put/Call .96 +10.11%

• OEX Put/Call .40 -74.66%

• ISE Sentiment 83.0 -37.86%

• NYSE Arms 1.32 +17.82%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.18 +29.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.69 +9.51%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.96 +4.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.24 -.12%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,390.48 -3.08%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.113 Trillion +1.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$4.023 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 37.4 -10.2%

• AAII % Bears 26.8 +33.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 180.23 -.99%

• Crude Oil 55.74 -.84%

• Reformulated Gasoline 178.56 +2.62%

• Natural Gas 2.87 +.63%

• Heating Oil 198.78 -1.41%

• Gold 1,299.30 +.33%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 186.55 -2.68%

• Copper 289.65 -1.04%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 327.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 83.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%

• Lumber 396.80 +4.01%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 887.79 -2.27%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.52% +18.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.70% +50.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.4717 +5.81%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 271.10 +162.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 171.41 +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -42.10 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.50 +12.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.10 -6.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 97.7% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/20

• US Dollar Index 97.36 +.93%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,638.49 -.34%

• Bitcoin/USD 3,890.03 +1.65%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.71 -1.88%

• Yield Curve 17.0 -2.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.62% -12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.930 Trillion -.13%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.11 -16.7%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 194.79 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.50 -11.25 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.28 +5.24%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.32 +8.22%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.57 +5.57%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.89 +4.34%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 128.43 -.35%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.19 +.33%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90% -5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.50 -4.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +3.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.61 +8.7%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 530.0 +4.72%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.41 +3.36%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 175.43 +4.36%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.733 Trillion -.52%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,067.10 -.30%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 226,250 -2,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.41% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 375.30 -2.47%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.10 +1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% -30.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.46/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 657.0 -1.05%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 830.49 -2.35%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 +8.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,631 +4.5%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -2.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -4.8%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilding +1.9%

• Gold & Silver +1.4%

• Utilities +.1%

• REITs -.1%

• Tobacco -.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Defense -6.0% 

• Biotech -6.3%

• Alt Energy -7.1%%

• Healthcare Providers -7.1%

• Oil Service -7.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (4)

• BIG, RARX, FTAI and WBC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• JBT, KR, NDAQ, IGT, NAV, AAXN, SFIX, CBT, OKTA, DOMO, GME, CRC, AOBC, FIXX, LOCO and AMAG

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change