Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 43.3% of Issues Advancing, 53.3% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 47.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
• Vix 13.6 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .99 +17.9%
• TRIN/Arms .78 +18.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 46.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.65 -.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (DG)/1.89
• (GCO)/2.33
• (TEN)/1.41

After the Close:

• (ADBE)/1.62
• (AVGO)/5.22
• (JBL)/.61
• (ORCL)/.84
• (ULTA)/3.56
• (ZUMZ)/1.11

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in Jan.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.6% decline in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 225K versus 223K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1763K versus 1755K prior.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +3.7% gain in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Retail Sales report, House Ways and Means hearing with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for March, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Forum, (TSLA) Model Y event and the (GE) outlook conference call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Brexit Hopes, Diminished Global Growth Fears, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -1.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.70 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.06 -.62%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.14 -2.05%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +33.3%
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -14.0%

• NYSE Arms .76 -26.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.27 -2.34%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 511.0 -2.52%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.66 -1.45%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 248.75 +.25 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.15 -.96%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.75 -.99%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.54 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.75 +.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.66 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 15.75 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 83.53 USD/Metric Tonne +1.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.20 +6.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -35.30 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.60 +1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 +2.0 basis points
• 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 0.0% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -5 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/tech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.3% 2) Homebuilders -.10% 3) Papers unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PDD, SFIX, VFF, SSRM, NOAH, EBS, ROKU, NAV, COHU and AM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) AKS 3) YETI 4) DISCA 5) KKR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ROKU 2) SIEN 3) INSY 4) AMPH 5)CLW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.2% 2) Video-Gaming +2.1% 3) Road & Rail +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OAK, VRA, CARA, NCNA, GH, MELI, NTRA, WAGE, CCC, DNLI, AERI, IGV, CBPO, SRRK, AAOI, FOCS, QTNA, MEI, TISI, APEI, PRAH, PYX, CVS, MOMO, YETI, WLL, TNDM, TTWO, SMAR, WTRH and CVS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FOXA 2) HBI 3) COG 4) JNPR 5) COUP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VRA 2) CVU 3) MOMO 4) DKS 5) MELI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 73.3% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining
• 131 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 46.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.7%
• Vix 13.6 -1.6%
• Total Put/Call .91 -9.0%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -25.2%