Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Theresa May Wins U.K. Parliament’s Backing for Her Plan to Delay Brexit.

• Why the Worst May Already Be Over for the Global Economy.

• Asia Stocks Build on Week's Advance; Dollar Steady. Asian stocks were mostly higher Friday, building on this week’s gains despite concerns over a delayed U.S.-China trade deal. Treasuries steadied and the dollar held gains. Equities in Japan and Korea rose, were little changed in Australia and futures pointed to small declines when Hong Kong opens. Earlier, the S&P 500 spent most of the session fluctuating between gains and losses in thin trading, before edging lower at the close. News that a meeting to end the trade war with China won’t happen this month had weighed on sentiment. The pound steadied as Prime Minister Theresa May won the endorsement of British politicians to seek to delay Brexit day. The yen edged lower ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.7 percent as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. Hang Seng futures earlier slipped 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent. Futures gained 0.1 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• A 4-Day Week, Xi-Trump Delay, RBA Cheers Spending Spree: Eco Day.

• JPMorgan's Kolanovic Says Time to Get Over Your Fear of Stocks. 

• Deutsche Bank’s Prized Hedge Fund Unit in Downward Spiral.

Wall St. Journal:

• Facebook(FB) Executives’ Exits Jolt Company Amid Strategy Shift.

• The Yale Dad Who Set Off the College-Admissions Scandal.

• Kids, Don’t Become Success Robots.

• Maker of AR-15 Rifle Can Be Sued Over Sandy Hook Killings.

• China Aims to Placate U.S. With Trade-Secret Theft Ban. 

• Southern Poverty Law Center Fires Co-Founder.

MarketWatch.com:

• Why some investors say tech stocks are becoming less risky.

• Uber reportedly planning an April IPO.

• Harry Boxer’s 4 stocks running on earnings.

Fox News:

• Military announces airstrikes on 'terror' sites in reaction to rocket attack on Tel Aviv.

• Local Dems consider primary challenge against controversial Rep. Omar.

CNBC:

• China suggests linking an official state visit by Xi to a US trade deal.

• UK lawmakers vote in favor of delaying Brexit departure date.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Ulta Beauty, Broadcom, Facebook and more.

• Oracle(ORCL) falls even as guidance meets expectations.

Zero Hedge:

• Top Execs Flee Facebook: Chief Product Officer, WhatsApp CEO Both Quit; Stock Tumbles.

• Iran Holds Massive Drone Drills Called "Way To Jerusalem" In Persian Gulf.

• Nomura: China Holds The Key To Japanese Yen.

• JPMorgan Capitulates, No Longer Expects Rate Hikes In 2019.

• A World Without Work: Universal Basic Income's "Deal With The Devil".

• ChiNext Collapse Continues As China's "National Team" Abandons Investors.

• Six Common Themes Unite The Jussie Smollett And College Admissions Scandals.

• Stocks Start Slide Back To Bond Market Reality As Quad-Witch Looms.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.70 -.4%. 

• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.51 unch.

• FTSE 100 futures +.63%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (BKE)/.85

• (CTRN)/.56

• (KIRK)/.97

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus 8.8 in Feb.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.6% decline in Jan.

• Manufacturing Production for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.9% decline in Jan.

• Capacity Utilization for Feb. is estimated to rise to 78.5% versus 78.2% in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Jan. is estimated to 7225 versus 7335 in Dec.

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for March is estimated to rise to 95.7 versus 93.8 in Feb.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Home Price report, Eurozone CPI report and the (REGN) conference call with JPMorgan could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Worries, Brexit Concerns, Profit-Taking, Retail/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.2 -1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.22 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.06 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.23 -1.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +33.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +9.52%

• NYSE Arms .89 +34.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.32 -.26%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 500.0 -1.83%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.11 -.74%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 240.75 -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.82 -.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.75 -.46%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.69 +.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.52 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% unch.

• Yield Curve 17.5 +1.75 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 84.22 USD/Metric Tonne -.75%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.40 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.70 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.0 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 +2.0 basis points
• 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 0.0% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/biotech/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long