Friday, September 13, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,007.39 +.96%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 27,219.52 +1.57%
  • NASDAQ 8,176.72 +.91%
  • Russell 2000 1,578.14 +4.85%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 42.90 +3.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 154.0 +7.89%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,823.92 +1.16%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,622.75 -.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,275.99 +2.41%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 622.72 -.92%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,124.90 +.63%
  • NYSE Technology 1,963.22 +.05%
  • Transports 10,813.62 +4.96%
  • Utilities 846.99 -.15%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.13 +8.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.12 +1.87%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,234.19 +.29%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 951.52 +.13%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 374,330 +1.09%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 249 +73
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.88 -25.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 384,157 -1.91%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,082,415 +3.96%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 46.3 +5,391%
  • ISE Sentiment 89.0 +4.71%
  • NYSE Arms .79 -46.88%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -7.87%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.81 -9.68%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.77 -1.88%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.09 -1.94%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,886.81 +2.35%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.397 Trillion +.50%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.387 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 33.1 +15.7%
  • AAII % Bears 31.3 -20.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 174.79 +1.30%
  • Crude Oil 54.89 -2.89%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 155.25 -1.05%
  • Natural Gas 2.63 +4.06%
  • Heating Oil 187.78 -.75%
  • Gold 1,489.70 -1.02%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.18 +1.44%
  • Copper 269.80 +2.57%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 248.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.13%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +7.49%
  • Lumber 379.90 +7.47%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 834.94 +2.9%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.81% +34.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.5% +40.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1223 +11.7%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 399.37 +149.8%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.15 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +12.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 +2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.60 +10.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18
  • US Dollar Index 98.25 +.17%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,618.31 +.61%
  • Bitcoin/USD 10,219.36 -1.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.31 +1.52%
  • Yield Curve 7.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.90% +35.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.731 Trillion +.23%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.82 +11.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.98 -02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -66.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.90 -4.57%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.80 -3.37%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.94 -1.24%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.41 +.26%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.33 -8.53%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.36 +.09%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% +12.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread .25 -3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +6.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.05 -2.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 393.0 -5.77%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.38 -2.50%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 201.20 +1.77%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 +.56%
  • M1 Money Supply $3.873 Trillion +1.27%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,115.70 -.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,500 -3,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.56% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.80 +2.02%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2 -.2 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.40% +100.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,331 -5.32%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 823.75 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 230,297 -15.75%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +6.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +9.1%
  • Banks +8.3%
  • Oil Service +8.2%
  • Airlines +7.3%
  • Retail +6.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Pharma -1.1% 
  • REITs -1.8%
  • Software -1.9%
  • Gold & Silver -4.1%
  • Restaurants -4.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)
  • KEM, DAN, IGT, AGS, CARS, GEL, SHLX, MDC, RMBS, UCTT, OI, TGI, ETSY, REVG, DCP, WES and PK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (3)
  • MDB, ZS and APLS
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.94 -1.97%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.32 +.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 -.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.84 -.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .81 -3.57%
  • NYSE Arms .95 +20.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.15 -.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 393.0 +.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.38 +3.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -20.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 55.35 -1.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.15 +1.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.36 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread .25 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.5 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 +5.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.19 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% unch.
  • Yield Curve .07+2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.76%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +10.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.50 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +6.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +6.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long