Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as profit-taking, technical selling and China trade tensions offsets oil strength, short-covering and diminished global growth concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Paranoia Written All Over S&P 500 in Struggle to Get Back to Record. 

• China Scraps U.S. Farm Tour, Stoking Pessimism on Trade Deal.

• Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Eight Months After Saudi Attack.

• Merkel’s Climate Deal Will Cost Billions And Everyone Hates It.

• Kennedy Takes On Massachusetts Democrat Markey for Senate Seat.  

• Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts.  

• Mexico’s Record-Setting Homicides, Slugglish Economy Test AMLO.

• Iran Dilemma, U.S. Health and a Balkan Weed Craze: Weekend Reads.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Muni-Bond Investors Embrace Higher-Risk.

• Democratic Opponents Search for a Plan Against Elizabeth Warren.

• U.S. to Send Military Forces to Saudi Arabia.

• U.S. Grants Apple 10 Exemptions from Tariffs on Chinese Imports.

• Hong Kong Unrest Persists With Violence Between Protesters, Police.

• The War for Talent in the Netflix Age.

MarketWatch.com:

• ‘Don’t smoke the Kool-Aid,’ analyst says in sober note on the cannabis sector.

Fox News:  

• Ukraine foreign minister defends Trump phone call at center of latest impeachment clamor.

CNBC:

• The stock market rotation that rocked investors this month may have been driven by a technicality.

• Iran’s warning to Saudi Arabia about all-out war is ‘ridiculous,’ Saudi’s Al-Jubeir says.

• Pentagon will deploy US forces to the Middle East after Saudi Arabia oil facilities attack.

• Wall Street analysts say these stocks have ‘underappreciated’ stories.

• Stocks will soar 17% through next year, market bull Ed Yardeni predicts.

Zero Hedge:

• Arab Spring 2.0?: "Sisi Must Leave" Mass Protest Rocks Egypt's Streets Overnight.

• 90% Of Plastic Waste Polluting Earth's Oceans Comes From Asia and Africa.

• Did Trump-Biden-Ukraine Drama Just Implode? WaPo Reports No "Quid Pro Quo" Offered During Phone Call.

• Trump's Real War Is With The Deep State, Not Iran.

• "Stiff, Strong, And Tough" - Researchers Discover New Plastic That Could Revolutionize Body Armor.

• US Army Prepares To Test New Anti-Drone BLADE System To Defend Against Drone Swarms.

• Trump Pounces On Biden-Ukraine Scandal As Whistleblower Story Flips On Dems.

• Canada's "Wokest" PM Just Took A Hit In The Polls After Blackface Scandal.

• Talks Back On: Here's The Reason Why China Canceled Its Trip To Montana And Nebraska.

• Dramatic Footage Captures Major Russia-China War Games Involving Over 120K Soldiers.

• Iran Vows Major War Even If US Conducts "Limited Strikes".

• Did Trump-Biden-Ukraine Drama Just Implode? WaPo Reports No "Quid Pro Quo" Offered During Phone Call.

• Bankrupt Illinois Cities Forced To Cut Services To Fund Pensions.

• The Coming Crisis Of China's One-Party Regime.

• Climate-Alarmist Parents Warned Not To Cause 'Eco-Anxiety' By Terrifying Children.

• Three Spy Planes Could Soon Be Flying Over Baltimore To Counter Murder Crisis.

• Walmart To Stop Selling E-Cigarettes Amid National Vaping Scrutiny.

• Is California About To Get Hit By A Hurricane For The Very First Time In History?

• Stocks & Bond Yields Sink Amid Quad Witch Chaos, Trade Turmoil, & Powell Promises.

Business Insider:

• The UAW failed to organize Tesla and VW in the US and is now running a baffling strike against GM.

The Telegraph: 

• China’s $400bn oil deal with Iran is a major step in the cold war that could derail trade talks.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,992.07 -.51%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 26,935.07 -1.05%

• NASDAQ 8,117.68 -.72%

• Russell 2000 1,559.76 -1.16%

• S&P 500 High Beta 42.15 -1.75%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 150.84 -2.05%

• Wilshire 5000 30,669.77 -.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,618.20 -.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,268.30 -.60%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 618.90 -.61%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,118.63 -1.66%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,944.62 -.96%

• Transports 10,454.36 -3.32%

• Utilities 842.90 +1.88%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 72.49 -.88%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.60 -.99%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,241.06 -.24%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 952.86 -.30%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 374,330 +1.09%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 249 +73

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 65.22 +198.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 428,205 +11.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,080,994 -.07%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +14.3%

• OEX Put/Call 2.60 -68.33%

• ISE Sentiment 89.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.27 +62.82%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +11.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.35 +10.66%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.86 +1.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.23 +1.23%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,830.13 -.38%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.402 Trillion +.14%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$8.596Billion

• AAII % Bulls 35.3 +6.7%

• AAII % Bears 27.8 -11.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 177.34 +1.46%

• Crude Oil 58.09 +5.96%

• Reformulated Gasoline 167.84 +8.47%

• Natural Gas 2.53 -3.32%

• Heating Oil 198.63 +5.92%

• Gold 1,508.0 +1.22%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.15 -1.14%

• Copper 260.65 -3.55%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 239.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.63%

• China Iron Ore Spot 89.75 USD/Metric Tonne -4.95%

• Lumber 383.80 +1.29%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 833.57 -.16%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.94% +13.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.5% +100.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1322 -4.62%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 100.82 +49.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.27 +.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.70 +24.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.40 +10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.30 -4.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 60.7% chance of no change, 39.3% chance of rate cut on 10/30

• US Dollar Index 98.51 +.68%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,615.47 -.34%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,177.25 -1.01%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.10 -.92%

• Yield Curve 4.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.74% -16.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.806 Trillion +2.01%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.82 +1.72%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.12 +14.55% (new series)

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 144.50 +11.5 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.54 +17.6% (new series)
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.76 +8.83% (new series)
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.70 +13.0% (new series)

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.99 +17.4% (new series)

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 80.71 +3.1%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.67 +.18%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.0 +8.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread -4.25 -4.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +5.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.36 +18.3% (new series)
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 378.0 -3.78%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.38 +14.1% (new series)
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 204.43 +1.69%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.891 Trillion +.48%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,093.50 -2.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 -250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.73% +16.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.50 -.05%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.7 -.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.90% -50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.67/gallon +.10/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,192 -5.19%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 818.33 -.67%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 +30.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 274,424 +19.2%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.4%

• REITs +2.2%

• Alt Energy +2.2%

• Drugs +2.0%

• Homebuilders +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -3.9% 

• Tobacco -4.0%

• Steel -4.3%

• Education -5.0%

• Coal -15.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• SCS, CWST, VCRA, MYOK, ALGN and PLAN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• TPTX, ARCH, FBM, EYE, CECO, NFLX, XLNX, BTU and ROKU

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change