Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Brexit Deal Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -6.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.70 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.89 -1.38%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.7 -6.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +64.4%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms .72 -39.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.07 -.96%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 500.0 +.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.25 -4.32%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.50 -1.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.90 -1.85%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.57 -1.85%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.54 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -1.75  basis points

• TED Spread 35.5 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.49 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% unch.

• Yield Curve .15+1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.15 USD/Metric Tonne +1.81%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.90 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -71.6 +3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.60 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 +1.0 basis point
• 81.5% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 86.6% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +378 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Foods -.2% 3) Utilities -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PINS, ZEN, DXCM and RGLD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HOG 2) CBS 3) MOS 4) GME 5) AAOI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WLL 2) YUM 3) BLMN 4) ATI 5) USAT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +4.2% 2) Semis +2.5% 3) Banks +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RETA, AXSM, ADPT, ROKU, RCKT RGNX, UNH, TNDM, DK, ZYXI, ANTM, UCTT, EHTH, FRC, ICHR, NVDA, CI, FORM, SCHW, MOH, PE, BMCH, CVNA, EXAS, ZBRA, X, TPH, CMC, JELD, BECN, HUM, AMBA, BLDR, TTD, KRA, SAGE, BCEI, RVNC, SDC, PAG, MUSA, JPM, CNC, OC, EXEL, ATRA, CTL, GPS, AA, FB, STAA and ACLS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWW 2) JPM 3) SGMS 4) APC 5) UNH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) RETA 3) TNDM 4) SCHW 5) UNH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 68.7% of Issues Advancing, 29.4% Declining
• 89 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 51.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.7%
• Vix 13.7 -6.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 -13.5%
• TRIN/Arms .72 -39.5%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• U.S. Urges Immediate Cease-Fire in Syria as It Sanctions Turkey.

• Hong Kong Protesters Rage Against Corporate China's Growing Control. 

• U.S.-China Deal: JPMorgan Sees Stocks Upside, BofA on Yuan.

• Boris Johnson’s Brexit Deal On Knife Edge as EU Needs More Time.

• Europe's Embargo Threat Over Syria Attack Rings Hollow in Turkey.

• Hong Kong Under ‘De Facto Curfew’ as Subway Stations Shut Early.

• Asia Stocks Set to Slip Amid Trade Deal Impasse. Asian stocks are set to open lower with little direction from their U.S. peers after China said it wanted more talks before signing a trade deal. Oil retreated. Australia’s shares slipped at the open, while futures were lower in Hong Kong, with modest gains seen in Japan as traders there return from a holiday. S&P 500 Index futures edged higher after the benchmark fluctuated most of Monday after China appeared to pour cold water on a pact touted by President Donald Trump, with people familiar with the situation saying it wanted to iron out details before signing it. Volumes were about 28% below average. A tweet from the Global Times’ editor-in-chief painted a more optimistic outlook, giving equities some support. U.S. bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 rose 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.3%. Hang Seng Index futures dropped 0.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.1%.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Billionaires Could Face Tax Rates Up to 97.5% Under Bernie Sanders.  

• Five Things to Watch as Big Banks Kick Off Earnings This Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Early Blizzard Wallops Vulnerable Crops.

• Drawn by the Salary, Women Flock to Trucking.

• Boeing’s New Chairman Is a Boardroom Force Familiar With Crises.

• Harley-Davidson Halts Electric Motorcycle Production.

• Spain’s Catalan Separatist Leaders Found Guilty of Sedition.

Fox News:

• MSNBC boss reportedly showed graphic Maria Menounos image at meeting.

CNBC:

• Bloomberg is talking about running for president as Biden struggles against Warren.

• Wall Street faces a tough earnings season: ‘Caution probably makes sense right now’.

• Longtime Berkshire Hathaway shareholder sells stake, accusing Warren Buffett of ‘thumb-sucking’.

• Beijing is ‘relieved’ by partial trade agreement, says Trump outside advisor on China.

Zero Hedge: 

• Veritas Strikes Again: Exposes CNN's 'Anti-Trump Crusade', Zucker's 'Personal Vendetta' Against Trump.

• Watch: Mexico Prevents Caravan Of 2,000 Migrants From Reaching US Border.

• Erdogan Holding 50 US Tactical Nukes 'Hostage' As Trump Authorizes Sanctions.

• Schiff: Public Has No Right To Observe Impeachment Inquiry...Then Kicks GOP Lawmaker Out.

• Victory Or Fire: That's The Plan For Hong Kong.

• Trump To Authorize Sanctions Against Turkish Officials, Reintroduce Steel Tariffs, Halt $100BN Trade Deal.

• Turkish-Backed Forces Clash With Syrian Army, Advance On Manbij.

• Economists Puzzled By Surge In US Money Supply.

• Stocks Extend Friday's "Sell The News" Trade 'Deal' Losses.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 45.0 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.54 -.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/6.99

• (SCHW)/.64

• (C)/1.95

• (GS)/4.91

• (JNJ)/2.01

• (JPM)/2.46

• (OMC)/1.30

• (UNH)/3.76

• (WFC)/1.18

• (WIT)/3.81

After the Close:

• (JBHT)/1.45

• (UAL)/3.95

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (ELS) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales reports, Democratic Presidential Debate and the (WDAY) Financial Analyst Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.