BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:00 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.75 basis point.

China Sovereign CDS 39.25 -.25 basis point.

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.10 +.02%.
FTSE 100 futures unch.

S&P 500 futures -.09%.

NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ABB)/.25
(ALXN)/2.47
(ANTM)/4.82
(BX)/.55
(BA)/2.14
(BSX)/.38
(CAT)/2.90
(CLF)/.26
(CMC)/.70
(LLY)/1.41
(FCX)/.01
(GD)/3.06
(HLT)/1.02
(KNX)/.48
(NDAQ)/1.21
(NSC)/2.59
(OC)/1.51
(PNR)/.55
(WGO)/1.01

After the Close:

(ALGN)/1.14
(AMP)/4.09
(CP)/4.50
(EBAY)/.64
(FFIV)/2.55
(F)/.26
(LRCX)/3.02
(LSTR)/1.41
(LVS)/.75
(MSFT)/1.24
(ORLY)/4.79
(PYPL)/.62
(RJF)/1.91
(RHI)/1.00
(NOW)/.89
(TSLA)/-.28
(VMI)/2.30
(VAR)/1.21
(XLNX)/.92

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.

10:30 am EST

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,397,330 barrels versus a +9,281,000 barrel gain the prior week.Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,106,550 barrels versus a -2,562,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,711,550 barrels versus a -3,823,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.96% versus a -2.6% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Japan manufacturing data, $41B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Zuckerberg(FB) testimony to House regarding Libra and the (HPE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Brexit Deal Concerns, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:23 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Around Average

Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 13.9 -1.1%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.37 -.21%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.64 -1.42%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.9 -.45%

ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 -18.8%

Total Put/Call .87 -7.5%

NYSE Arms .90 +7.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.09 +.14%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 494.0 +1.67%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.97 -.60%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.25 -3.5 basis points

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.30 -1.18%

Emerging Market CDS Index 201.30 +.01%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.86 +.02%

2-Year Swap Spread 2.0 -.5 basis point

TED Spread 33.0 +3.25 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 -1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.10 +.29%
3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.63% -2.0 basis points

Yield Curve .18 unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 84.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.89%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.6 -.6 point

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.9 +1.3 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.50 -.4 basis point

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 unch.
94.7% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 96.5% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -58 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs

Disclosed Trades: None

Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:33 PM

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Restaurants -2.9% 2) Social Media -1.5% 3) Insurance -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SNAP, SNV, MCD, WBS, NOW, ZM, CHRS, KMB, AYX, TRV, CVA, HAS and SERV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) BIIB 2) UTX 3) PHM 4) CNC 5) MDLZ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) TEUM 2) DEST 3) HHC 4) MAT 5) AAOI

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:36 PM

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Oil Service +2.7% 2) Biotech +2.1% 3) Healthcare Providers +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

BIIB, STMP, CISN, ATNX, PII, INMD, LYFT, HOG, CNC, AERI, CSOD, UBER, JBLU, MTDR, UAA, IDCC, FBP, ZION, ARWR, PETS, DNLI, ARCH, KMT, GOSS, EAF, GPK, ANTM, MTG, SHW, BMY, LPX, YEXT, AAN, X, MTR, NOV, PG, IGT, POL, SLB, SFNC, EOG and DRQ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EUFN 2) HOG 3) OKE 4) BIIB 5) UPS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) STMP 2) PII 3) HOG 4) LYFT 5) JBLU

Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:56 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +5.0% Above 100-Day Average
7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
64.2% of Issues Advancing, 32.5% Declining
170 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
56.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 49.8%
Vix 13.8 -1.7%
Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%
TRIN/Arms .80 -4.8%

Monday, October 21, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:51 PM