Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 72.8% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 54.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.0%
• Vix 14.1 -11.4%
• Total Put/Call .92 -19.3%
• TRIN/Arms .72 -41.9%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 +1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.30 -.05%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.71

• (GIII)/1.94

• (JW/A)/.65

After the Close:

• (HOME)/-.02

• (FIVE)/.17

• (HRB)/-.92

• (RH)/2.25

• (SMTC)/.40

• (SNPS)/1.13

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to rise to 135K versus 125K in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 54.7 in Oct.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,486,310 barrels versus a +1,572,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,469,750 barrels versus a +5,132,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +327,420 barrels versus a +725,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.84% versus a -.2% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, Berenberg European Conference, Eurozone PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the impeachment hearing could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Loweri into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Profit-Taking, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 +8.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.89 -.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.96 +2.05%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.1 +2.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +15
  

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +22.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.23 +35.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.36 +2.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 636.0 +2.55%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.11 +1.81%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.5 +.25 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.15 +1.46%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 206.10 +1.79%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.24 -.10%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 1.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 34.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +2.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.32 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .18 -4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.79 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.2 -2.5 basis points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.30 +1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.0 +1.1 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 -1.0 basis point
• 14.5% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 32.7% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -249 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -2.1% 2) Oil Service -2.1% 3) Steel -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DRNA, VMW, HMSY, OLLI, APA, ELF, CCMP, CLVS and sCARA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AKS 2) ASHR 3) MAC 4) PLUG 5) CPB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APA 2) PLT 3) CBRL 4) HAL 5) WMB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Biotech +.7% 3) REITs +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BOLD, LE, AXSM, ARWR, RGNX, ENPH, FIXX, NXTC, APLS, SGMO, VYGR, IOVA, RARE, DFIN, ILPT, SAFE, REGI, ROKU, BPMP, BLUE, GBT, PTCT, TTD, PINC, AXTA, XNCR and CUB

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KKR 2) AXSM 3) XLI 4) XLP 5) APC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LE 2) ROKU 3) MACK 4) ADBE 5) MRK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 26.9% of Issues Advancing, 70.5% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
• 56.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.1%
• Vix 17.3 +16.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.33 +34.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +31.9%