Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -2.2% 2) Paper -.7% 3) Energy -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LHCG, TCF, WFC, PTY, ALLY, C, OSUR, ORA, GOLF, CHRS and PLAY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLY 2) HLF 3) SYF 4) CVM 5) PE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CCLP 2) AUDC 3) CHK 4) CVIA 5) GSX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +3.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.3% 2) Homebuilders +3.8% 3) Semis +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPCE, INSG, YETI, IOVA, FUN, NOVA, TSLA, COUP, RCL, ROKU, CVNA, FOXF, CCL, SUN, PING, AMD, UAL, GRUB, NCLH, DAL, APLS, DOMO, ZM, INSP, BURL, VECO, NXTC, MAG, MGM, NTLA, NFLX, NTRA, SAVE, AMZN, SIX, EPR, CHEF, EAT, KBH, SMPL, MOH, AAL, URGN and TTWO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWG 2) COUP 3) AMGN 4) APC 5) RTX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NBEV 2) ROKU 3) FAST 4) NFLX 5) DAL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +38.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 74.1% of Issues Advancing, 24.6% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 7.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.2%
• Vix 38.6 -6.4%
• Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.88 +84.3%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Australia ‘Many Weeks Away’ From Relaxing Virus Restrictions.

• Global Coronavirus Cases Pass 2 Million Mark: Virus Update.

• Mnuchin Offers Reassurances on Stability of Mortgage Market.

• Stocks Trade Mixed Ahead of Earnings Season. Global stocks traded mixed Tuesday ahead of one of the most uncertain earnings seasons on record as the coronavirus pandemic rattles the world economy. Stocks saw modest gains in Japan and South Korea. Australian shares reversed early losses after reopening from a holiday. U.S. futures fluctuated after the S&P 500 Index retreated overnight. Treasury yields edged lower and the dollar was little changed. The yen advanced with the Australian dollar. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 9:52 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 declined 1% Monday. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.4%. Korea’s Kospi Index rose 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7%.    

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Oil Edges Higher as Markets Weighs Output Cuts Against Demand.

• U.S. Debt and Deficit Forecast to Hit Levels Not Seen Since WWII

• ETF Investors Are All-In on Stimulus With $17 Billion Stock Bet.  

• Homeowners Seeking Mortgage Relief With U.S. Economy Shuttered.  

• Slaughterhouses That Supply America’s Meat Are Starting to Close.  

• Costly CT Scans Filling Virus Testing Void for U.S. Physicians.  

• Short-Covering Rally in Stock Market’s Toxic Waste Abruptly Ends.

Wall Street Journal:

• China Still Misleads the World on the Coronavirus.

• The Young Will Reopen America.

• The Coronavirus Economic Reopening Will Be Fragile, Partial and Slow.

• Republicans Embrace Big-Government Solutions.

• Amazon to Ease Curbs on Nonessential Items.

• African Countries Complain of Racism in Chinese City’s Pandemic Controls.

• PC Sales Fell Sharply in Latest Quarter.

• Tornadoes Kill at Least 31 People Across the South.

• True Religion Files for Bankruptcy as Coronavirus Outbreak Slams Retail.

• Social-Distancing Rules—and Those That Flout Them—Spur Shaming.

CNBC.com:

• Coronavirus live updates: Three West Coast states announce pact on reopening economy.

• Trump says there’s ‘clear evidence’ coronavirus mitigation is working as new infections stabilizes.

• Why Trump’s claim that he has ‘total’ power to restart state economies is false.

• Mnuchin flexes muscles on airline coronavirus aid — a taste of what other companies may face.

• Hotels and retailers not paying rent due to the coronavirus pandemic spikes in April, Trepp says.

• Roku stock pops as company says it expects streaming hours grew 49% in Q1.

• Stocks slip as market enters new phase, with investors worrying about balance sheets.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Roku, AMC, Tesla and more.

Fox News:

• What would happen if Trump WH pulled its majority funding from the WHO?

MarketWatch.com:         

• Opinion: This widely used stock valuation measure says the S&P 500 is 35% overpriced.  

• Stock-market bull warns investors not to ‘chase the rally’ as ‘epic battle’ between Fed and coronavirus unfolds.  

• Wall Street analyst who called the 2018 rout says ‘don’t fight the Fed’ and ‘buy the dips’ is back on in this coronavirus-stricken stock market.

Zero Hedge:

• Here's What The Reopening Of The US Economy Could Look Like.

• Wyoming Reports 1st Coronavirus Death As Global COVID-19 Cases Near 2 Million: Live Updates.

• COVID-19 Chaos: Perfect Cover For Mandatory Biometric ID?

• China Quietly Reimposes Restrictions On Movement As Outbreak's 'Second Wave' Looms.

• Watch Live: Dr. Fauci Defies The Media, Says Trump Approved 'Mitigation' "The First Time I Recommended It".

• Treasury Cash Balance Doubles In Ten Days, Hits A Record $899 Billion.

• World's Largest Pork Producer Shutters Key US Factory After COVID-19 Outbreak, Warns Of Shortages.

• Nearly 2 Million Struggling Homeowners Apply For Assistance As Forbearance Explosion Paints Dire Picture.

• Twitter Bans, Reinstates Steve Bannon's "War Room: Pandemic" Account.

• Even Goldman Mocks The Absurdity Of Its Own "S&P To 3,000" Forecast.

• Gold Jumps As Stocks & Oil Dump From Exuberant Open.

Business Insider:  

• Zoom, TikTok dances, and sourdough bread: How coronavirus self-isolation has changed American society in just a few weeks.

• Saudi Aramco will lower oil prices in Asia to near 2-decade lows, even after global powers agree to historic production cut.

• Anthony Scaramucci's investment firm slumps 22% amid coronavirus rout, report says.

The Epoch Times:

• Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus. (video documentary)

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.75 -15.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.02 +.08%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.60%.

• S&P 500 futures +.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.5%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CONN)/.35

• (FAST)/.34

• (INFY)/10.04

• (JNJ)/1.96

• (JPM)/1.88

• (WFC)/.41

After the Close:

• (JBHT)/1.01

• (UAL)/-2.68

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to fall -3.2% versus a -.5% decline in Feb.

• The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated to fall -1.9% versus a -1.1% decline in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Evans speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference and the (MRNA) vaccine day  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer staple shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Earnings Jitters, Oil Decline, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 43.2 +3.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.84 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.48 +.26%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 77.7 +1.26%

• ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +123.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -14.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +113.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.42 +3.59%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,145.0 -10.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.33 -.08%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 +.25 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.61 -8.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 306.93 +1.42%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 157.49 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 102.5 -7.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 37.25 -.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 +8.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.99 -.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .51 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -81.9 -14.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.80 +2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.60 +7.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.26 +2.0 basis points
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/tech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 20.3% of Issues Advancing, 78.3% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 6.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.2%
• Vix 43.6 +4.6%
• Total Put/Call .87 -12.1%
• TRIN/Arms .87 -48.8%