Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Trump Issues Guidelines; Singapore Cases Jump: Virus Update. 

• Stocks Climb as U.S. Paves Way to Reopen Economy: Markets Wrap. Stocks rose in Asia along with U.S. equity futures amid tentative steps to restart the American economy and progress on the fight against the coronavirus. Treasuries retreated with the dollar. Shares in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney advanced early Friday, while contracts on the S&P 500 climbed about 3%. President Donald Trump outlined plans for the reopening and investors assessed a report that Gilead Sciences Inc. is seeing improvements in coronavirus sufferers taking its drug. Meantime, Treasury yields advanced, while oil traded below $20 a barrel and gold retreated. In a volatile U.S. session Thursday, the S&P 500 closed higher and the Nasdaq 100 wiped out its losses for 2020. Shares of Boeing Co. surged after-hours after saying it will resume commercial plane production at a plant near Seattle next week. Traders are now waiting for the latest economic data from China to assess the impact of the coronavirus there. Futures on the S&P 500 advanced 3% as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge climbed 0.6% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index added 1%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.7%.  

• Oil Closes Under $20 for Second Day Amid Historic Demand Loss.

• Oil’s Collapse Is Taking an Entire Service Industry Down With It.    

• Saudi Arabia, Russia Hint at Further Action to Stem Oil’s Plunge.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Reopening U.S., Decade of Job Losses, Is it Enough?: Eco Day.

• Cantor to Cut Hundreds of Jobs in Break From Wall Street Pledge.

• These are the Drugs and Vaccines That Might End the Coronavirus Pandemic.

• Hedge Fund Hotshots Suffer Humbling Losses in Coronavirus Chaos.  

• Apple CEO Talks Covid-19 Crisis, Return to Work Plan at Company-Wide Meeting.  

• Meet Fed’s Nine New Offspring, Each With Different Market Role. 

• Fed Readying Plan to Publish Transactions in Crisis Programs.

Wall Street Journal:  

• How to Help in the Crisis—and Why You’ll Be Glad You Did.

• Sizing Up the Coronavirus’s Hit to the Job Market.

• Moving the Shutdown Goal Posts.

• The Fed and Main Street.

• Shoes to Masks: Corporate Innovation Flourishes in Virus Fight.

• Virus Supplies Bound for U.S. Are Stuck in China Due to Export Rules.

• After Italy’s Coronavirus Grief Come Anger and Investigations.

CNBC.com:

• Dow futures rally 900 points after report says Gilead drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus.

• Chubb CEO: Forcing insurers to pay pandemic losses is ‘plainly unconstitutional’.

• Trump issues guidelines to open up parts of US where coronavirus cases are declining.

• Coronavirus updates: US cases top 667,000 as Dr. Birx outlines phases to reopen US economy.

• Boeing plans to resume Seattle-area aircraft production with physical distancing to avoid coronavirus. 

• Unusual partnership in coronavirus bailout allows Fed and Treasury to share the risk.

• The New York retail real estate market is reeling because of coronavirus, as rents tumble.

• NY and other East Coast states extend shutdown of nonessential businesses to May 15, Cuomo says.

• Widespread coronavirus testing is needed before the economy reopens. Here’s how to get there.

Fox News:

• Trump unveils guidelines for easing coronavirus restrictions, 'the next front in our war'.

• Inside the controversial lab believed to be origin of pandemic.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Johnson & Johnson has coronavirus vaccine candidate in works, but medical devices are likely to take a hit.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Says Guidelines Would Allow Some States To Reopen "Tomorrow".

• Gilead Pours Cold Water On Report That Sent Market Soaring: "Anecdotal Reports With No Statistical Power".

• Anonymous Tip Leads To Grisly Discovery: 17 Bodies 'Piled Up' In Virus-Hit NJ Nursing Home.

• NYC's Intensive-Care Units Still "Dangerously Overcrowded" Despite 'Flattening Curve': Live Updates.
• Facebook 'Fact Checker' Worked At Wuhan Biolab; Ruled Out Virus-Leak While 'Debunking' Articles.

• Lobbying Frenzy Unleashed On Capitol Hill By Massive Pool Of Corona-Stimulus Money.

• "Scarier Than Contracting The Virus" - Pandemic-Tracking Tech Raises Fears Of Global Surveillance State.

• Musk Donating Ventilators Was "Contingent On Posing For Thank You Shots On Social Media": LA Times.

• Investing Is Dead: State Street Now Selling ETFs That Will Be Bought By The Fed.

• Trump Tells Governors Some States Can Reopen Before May 1; US Cases Top 650k.

• US Futures Soar On Report Of Positive Results From Gilead Drug.

• Boris Johnson's Stand-In Backs Up Trump On China: "We'll Have To Ask Some Hard Questions".

• Stocks Surge On Soaring Unemployment For 4th Week In A Row.

The Epoch Times:

• Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus. (video documentary)

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.50 -6.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 -2.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.42 +.31%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +2.6%.

• S&P 500 futures +3.0%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +2.6%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KSU)/1.78

• (PG)/1.11 

• (RF)/.31

• (SLB)/.25

• (STT)/1.35

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -7.2% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurzone CPI report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Diminishing Coronavirus Fears, Technical Buying, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 41.2 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.07 -.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +1.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 77.5 -2.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -6.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 -32.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.54 +3.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,127.0 +2.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.21 +.12%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 230.75 -4.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.56 +1.09%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 350.97 +2.81%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.93 -.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.50 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 105.0 -5.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 41.0 -6.0 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  128.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.16 -.54%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 44.25 -8.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 82.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.37%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -131.10 -4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.40 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.40 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.03 -17.0 basis points
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -3.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -7.2% 2) Oil Service -6.5% 3) Gaming -4.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MA, HCAT, HEES, PH, RTRX, WFC, CREE, DAL, APLT, LUV, PFGC, BA, WYND, USFD, SPR, CATM, RCL, AAL, UAL, CAR, RAD and PLT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHK 2) KRE 3) UAA 4) ABT 5) TIF

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLAN 2) TLRY 3) COP 4) GT 5) C

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +2.1% 2) Healthcare Providers +2.0% 3) Semis +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RCUS, JACK, ROKU, BGS, SFM, ABT, AKAM, INSG, CATS, ZUO, WORK, AMZN, NFLX and TGE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BCRX 2) SFM 3) LTRPA 4) ABT 5) CODX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LOVE 2) ROKU 3) JACK 4) SNGX 5) EDNT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 32.4% of Issues Advancing, 66.0% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 8.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.4%
• Vix 40.9 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .86 -14.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 -33.3%