Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Pompeo Says ‘Enormous Evidence’ Links Virus to Wuhan Laboratory.   

• China Hid Coronavirus' Severity to Hoard Supplies, AP Reports.

• Here’s Why European Stock Market Is Losing to U.S. in This Rally.  

• U.S.-China Angst Tests ‘Sell in May’ Mantra for Emerging Markets.    

• U.K. Business Sentiment Plunges With No Snap Recovery in Sight.

• Mexico Indefinitely Halts New Clean-Energy Plans, Blaming Virus.    

• Distressed Debt Deals May Rise to 2009 Levels in Crisis-Hit Gulf.

• U.S. Stock Futures Drop With Sentiment Fragile. U.S. equity futures declined in early trading, indicating the risk-off move that’s hit markets at the start of this month may have further to run. The dollar edged higher. S&P 500 futures opened about 1% lower after global stocks posted a more than 2% slide on Friday. The Australian dollar slipped along with the pound and euro, while Australian bonds nudged higher. Trading volumes may be light due to holidays in China and Japan, and Treasuries won’t trade until the London open. Oil began the week on the back foot. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.3% as of 8:35 a.m. in Sydney. The gauge lost 2.8% on Friday. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.1%.

• Saudi Stocks Slump as Minister Warns of ‘Painful’ Measures Ahead. 

• Oil Falls on Ample Supply as Investors Shun Near-Term Contracts.

• Global Oil Demand Starts a Long, Painful and Uncertain Recovery.  

• U.S. Case Rise Slows; Gilead Sets Remdesivir Use: Virus Update.

• Norwegian Air Nearer to Rescue Deal as Bondholders Support Plan.

• Sunday Strategist: Tractor Supply(TSCO) Beats Amazon(AMZN) to the Heartland.

• Small Firms Still in Dark on Loan Forgiveness as Clock Ticks.  

• The Big Keep Getting Bigger in the Pandemic-Rearranged Economy. 

• Buffett’s Chance for a Blockbuster Deal Faded When Fed Stepped In.

Wall Street Journal:

• Safety Advice for Reopening: How to Reduce Your Risks as Lockdowns Ease.

• Oil’s Crash Prompts Record Push to Store Fuel at Sea.

• Biden’s #MeToo Denial.

• Roche Virus Antibody Test Wins FDA Approval for Emergency Use.

• A Guide to Grocery Delivery During the Pandemic—and After.

• Low-Quality Masks Infiltrate U.S. Coronavirus Supply.

• The Cruel Covid ‘New Normal’.

• Pelosi’s Coronavirus Power Grab.

• Smart or Lucky? How Florida Dodged the Worst of Coronavirus.

• Hedge Fund Elliott Management to Finance Lawsuit Against Streamer Quibi.

• Some Insurers Flex Balance Sheets to Help Hospitals, Doctors Amid Pandemic.

Fox News:

• Biden accuser Tara Reade tells Fox News that treatment of Anita Hill forced her to stay quiet.

CNBC:

• Coronavirus live updates: Kudlow says more PPP loans may be needed, Roche making more antibody tests.

• Putting the economy back together again: What the future holds for Americans.

• Small towns and rural hospitals brace for their coronavirus peak, which could be weeks away.

• Cuomo calls PPE shortages a national security issue: ‘You can’t be dependent on China’.

Zero Hedge:           

• China Hid Severity Of Coronavirus To Hoard Supplies, New Intelligence Shows: Live Updates.

• The FAAMGs Are Up 10% In 2020; The Remaining 495 S&P Stocks Are Down 13%.

• Newsom Says California Went From Surplus To 'Tens Of Billions In Deficit' In Weeks, Won't Get By Without Federal Help.

• China Using Alleged BuzzFeed Pedo's Wuhan Lab Article For Propaganda War Against United States.

• The Fed's Balance Sheet Will Expand By 38% Of GDP, More Than Double QE1, 2 And 3 Combined.

• Stocks, Yuan, Oil Are All Tumbling As Asia Opens.

• Tadawful: Saudi Stocks Crash After FinMin Warns Of "Biggest Crisis In Decades".

• Global US Dollar Shortage Rises As Emerging Markets Lose Reserves.

• Did FBI Operative's Lie Launch Flynn Investigation, And Did IG Horowitz Run Cover?

• "Ashy & Bloated": Analysts Pore Over Kim Jong Un Photos For Clues To Mystery Absence.

• The Case Of General Flynn: Exposing Washington's "Big Game Of Liars' Poker".

• Massachusetts Walmart Ravaged By COVID, 21% Of Employees Infected, Store Closed.

• Gunfire Exchanged Between North & South Korea Declared 'Likely Unintentional'.

• Pentagon Reviewing Hypersonic Program As Investments In Mach 5 Missiles Expected To Soar.

• Brace For A Monday Massacre: Buffett Liquidates All Airline Holdings As Berkshire Sees Another Leg Lower.

• Saudi Officials Say Whopping 70% Of Mecca's Population Likely Infected With COVID-19.

• Here Are The Key Findings From The Bombshell Government Dossier On China's Bat Virus Program.

• COVID-19 Is Changing The Way America Lives, Works, & Votes.

• Spain Seeks Another Bailout As Deficit Skyrockets.

• China's Exploiting The COVID-19 Pandemic To Expand In Asia.

• Get Ready For Slaughterhouse Robots To Ease America's Meat Processing Crisis.

• "The US Doesn't Own The UN" - Furious Beijing Blasts UN Mission's Taiwan Tweets As "Political Manipulation".

MarketWatch.com:

• S&P 500 earnings are beating estimates by the lowest rate in a decade amid COVID-19 despite earlier cuts to forecasts.

Business Insider:

• The coronavirus pandemic has fragmented Gen Z into 4 distinct groups — and each one is dealing with a different set of challenges.

• Younger adults are getting seriously sick and ending up in the hospital because of the coronavirus, and it's alarming doctors.

• Dining out in China has drastically changed since lockdown restrictions have lifted, and it offers a glimpse into what lies ahead for US restaurants.

• Fast-food chains like McDonald's and Taco Bell are betting traumatized Americans will flock to familiarity as restaurants reopen.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘No Sign of Recovery’ for Chinese Economy as Virus Cripples Export Orders.

• Leaked Government Documents Suggest Serious Virus Outbreaks at Hospitals in Northern China.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.5 -6.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +3.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.18 -.21%.

• FTSE 100 futures -1.4%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.4%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.6%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (PETS)/.29

• (NNN)/.70

• (PBI)/.07

• (TSN)/1.12

After the Close:

• (AIG)/.82

• (CAR)/-1.83

• (CRUS)/.50

• (COHR)/.53

• (DLPH)/-.09

• (EXPE)/-1.23

• (HTZ)/-1.16

• (CLI)/.38

• (MHK)/1.67

• (MOS)/-.07

• (SHAK)/-.01

• (SWKS)/1.33

• (THC)/.32

• (VAR)/.85

• (WMB)/.26

• (WH)/.31

• (XPO)/.49

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March are estimated to fall -9.2% versus unch. in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and the (ALXN) business update could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on earnings jitters, global recession fears, oil weakness, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, technical selling and coronavirus worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• China’s Total Services Trade Plunges 10.8% in First Quarter.

• China Opposes Taiwan Participation in U.N. After U.S. Tweet.  

• Spain Allows Outdoor Exercise; European Cases Slow: Virus Update.

• Emirates, Etihad Say 85% of Airlines to Collapse Without Aid.

• Charting the Global Economy: ‘Contraction’ Becomes Common Theme.  

• U.S. Beef Output Is Down Way More Than Shutdowns Suggest.  

• Another Week, Another Risk That Weighs on Italy’s Battered Bonds.  

• Russia’s Oil Output Rose Slightly in April Ahead of OPEC+ Cuts.

• Airport Screeners May Check For Fever Under Plan Being Discussed.

• America’s Retailers Return to Lure Virus-Weary Shoppers to Malls.

• Big Tech’s Earnings Triumph Belies the Economic Pain Ahead. 

• Apple’s $1.5 Billion Headwind Adds FX to Litany of Company Woes.   

• Oil ETF’s Survival Tactics Embolden Its Swelling Retail Fan Base.  

• ‘False Dawn’ Recovery Haunts Virus Survivors Who Fall Sick Again.

• From Houston to New York, America’s Muni Finances Are in Tatters.  

• The World Lurches Toward an Unknown New Normal: Weekend Reads.  

• After Quant Bust 2020 Comes a Reckoning for Stock Math Wizzes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Business After Coronavirus: How One Cleveland Restaurant’s Choices Ripple Through the Economy.

• The Judge and Michael Flynn.

• As Restrictions Ease, Economic Rebound Remains Elusive.

• ‘Quarantinis,’ Bread Makers and Badminton: What’s Hot in Down Consumer Market.

• Airlines Brace for Slow Recovery.

• Auto Lenders Lure Borrowers With Generous Terms—For Some.

• Biden Aims to Out-Tough Trump on China While Invoking His Obama Experience.

• How to Entertain Kids at Home? They Have 34 Suggestions.

• The U.S. Consumer Is Nesting. Will That Last? 

• Georgia Officials Watch Infection Data After Reopening.

CNBC:

• Dow drops more than 600 points to start the new month, Amazon falls 7%.

• Amazon told investors they ‘may want to take a seat,’ here’s what that means.

• Coronavirus pandemic tanks US auto sales in April.

• Tesla shares tank after Elon Musk tweets the stock price is ‘too high’.

• Wasted milk, euthanized livestock: How coronavirus has devastated US agriculture.

• Coronavirus updates: Spain opens after seven-week lockdown; protesters demand states ease restrictions.

• Warren Buffett built up cash and bought only small amounts of stock during the market rout.

• Clorox CEO boosts ad spend by $50 million as disinfectant demand surges amid coronaviurs pandemic.

• Warren Buffett says Berkshire sold all its airline stocks because of the coronavirus.

• Stocks are up against big ‘resistance’ and likely need actual economic improvement to overcome it.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (COP), (CVX), (VLO), (CNQ), (PSX), (BP), (WMB), (LNG), (MMP), (EPD), (EL), (HPQ), (FOXA), (LULU), (ULTA), (LEVI), (JCI), (CVNA), (MSGE) and (NTAP).

MarketWatch.com: 

• Spaniards fill streets for first time in seven weeks as Europe relaxes lockdown but Russian numbers spike.

George W. Bush Presidential Center:

• A Message from President George W. Bush. (video)

Fox News:

• New York Times calls for DNC investigation into Biden sexual assault claims.

• Western intel details how China deceived, bullied world with pandemic.

• Mass graves in the Amazon a sign of things to come for Brazil.

• Two new sources claim Reade told them about aspects of alleged sex-assault, harassment, AP says.

• Dossier on COVID cover-up claims consistent with US findings: officials.

Zero Hedge:          

• Here Are The Key Findings From The Bombshell Government Dossier On China's Bat Virus Program.

• "Bad News" - 20% Of New Yorkers Test Positive As NY, Italy COVID Deaths Resurge: Live Updates.

• China Issues Odd Animated Lego Video Attacking Trump's COVID-19 Response. Conveniently absent from the state media 'narrative' is the glaring and scandalous fact that China arrested the very doctor who was the earliest to try and warn his country as the severity. We'd like to see a Lego cartoon about that one. 

• 50 Dead, 60 Wounded After Venezuela Prison Uprising: Live Updates.

• Andy Hall Says "Unlikely" We See Negative WTI Again, But Doubtful On "V-Shaped" Recovery In Oil.

• NYPD Dispatches 1,000 Cops To Stop New Yorkers From Barbecuing On Saturday.

• Fauci Links & Virus-Lab Leaks: Newsweek Report Raises Urgent, Important Questions.

• Democrats Slammed Over Biden-Kavanaugh Double Standard.

• Watch: Militia In Michigan And Beachgoers In California Protest Quarantines.

• Crisis In Processing - Thousands Of Meatpacking Workers Infected, Deaths Hit 20.

• Data Privacy Advocates Alarmed By NHS's New 'Contact-Tracing' App.

• Berkshire Hathaway Reports Record $50 Billion Q1 Loss, Cash Pile Hits $137 Billion.

• Macau Gaming Revenues Down 97% As Travel Restrictions Take Toll.

• Johnstone: The Way Liberals Smear Tara Reade Is Everything Rape Survivors Fear.

• SUVs Are Being Parked In The Middle Of The Ocean As Auto Inventory Crisis Deepens.

• North Korea's Kim Jong-Un 'Back From Dead', Makes First Appearance In 20 Days; Report.

• Maryland Deploys National Guard To Protect Covid Tests From Feds.

• Kroger Begins Limiting Purchases On Ground Beef And Pork In Some Stores.

• Biden Bumbles Over Tara Reade Answers During Tense MSNBC Interview.

• White House Blocks Dems Attempt To Drag Dr, Fauci To Testify Before Congress.

• Is This Why Elon Musk Is Talking Down His Stock Price.

• 7 Facts That Suggest Illinoisans Can & Must Get Back To Work.

• Is This The Post-COVID-19 World? Cashiers Work Inside Plastic Tents At Supermarket .

• Why The Meat Shortages Are Going To Be Much Worse Than Most Americans Are Anticipating.

• Feds Probe 'Substantial Contractual Relations' Between University Of Texas And Wuhan Biolab.

• David Einhorn Smells Blood, Unveils A "Host Of New Questions" For "Fraud" Elon Musk.

• Mayday On May-Day - Stocks Slammed After Awesome April On China Threat, Dismal Data.

Business Insider: 

• Amazon employees say they're scared to go to work, but they're not alone — here are 9 big companies facing worker criticism over their coronavirus safety response.  

• For a growing number of COVID-19 patients, symptoms last more than a month. Four young patients who've been sick 30-plus days say they're 'terrified.'

• McDonald's designed a new type of restaurant for the coronavirus era in Europe — here's what it's like to visit.

• People are spending up to 3 hours waiting in drive-thru lines for McDonald's and Burger King as the chains reopen locations around the world.

• These are the photos of Kim Jong Un's first public appearance in 20 days after the world wondered if he was dead.

• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold more than $6 billion in stock in April, its first-quarter earnings show.

• Apple's most important product launch in years could be in jeopardy, but Wall Street didn't ask about it once during the company's earnings call.

The Epoch Times:  

• Lawmakers Investigate NIH Over Chinese Espionage Aimed at US Medical Research. Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) have launched an investigation into the NIH’s handling of cases of scientists who were recipients of U.S. grants but failed to disclose their ties to the Chinese communist regime. The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs launched a bipartisan investigation into China’s talent recruitment plans and found that since the late 1990s “China began recruiting U.S.-based scientists and researchers and incentivizing them to transfer U.S. taxpayer-funded intellectual property to China for China’s own economic and military gain … while federal agencies have done little to stop it.”

• Northern Chinese City Shuts Eateries Amid Second Wave of Virus Outbreak.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline. 

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.