Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,336.85 -3.69%

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices

• DJIA 27,650.70 -2.33%

• NASDAQ 10,835.05 -5.41%

• Russell 2000 1,493.28 -3.48%

• S&P 500 High Beta 42.72 -3.53%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 168.47 -1.60%

• Wilshire 5000 33,941.20 -3.52%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,122.10 -5.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,173.94 -2.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 661.30 -1.62%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,306.46 -.83%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,954.76 -6.4%

• Transports 11,250.70 +.7%

• Utilities 799.52 -1.06%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 49.80 -1.86%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.98 -1.23%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,225.38 -.21%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 897.05 -.37%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 416,869 -.62%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 123 +33

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -45.5 +.39%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 490,915 -1.95%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,064,137 +.57%

• Total Put/Call .88 -16.7%

• OEX Put/Call 1.62 -6.3%

• ISE Sentiment 100.0 -8.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +24.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.0 +270.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 28.6 -14.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.52 +20.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.85 +5.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.27 -.18%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,959.07 -4.56%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.468 Trillion -.59%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.050 Million

• AAII % Bulls 23.7 -23.0%

• AAII % Bears 48.5 +16.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 146.25 -2.62%

• Crude Oil 37.29 -9.37%

• Reformulated Gasoline 109.55 -8.49%

• Natural Gas 2.28 -8.38%

• Heating Oil 108.91 -6.04%

• Gold 1,939.30 +.44%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 185.72 -.2%

• Copper 303.15 +1.80%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 304.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.62%

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%

• Lumber 640.40 -4.49%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 865.54 +.5%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +30.8% -.2 percentage point

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.6% +.9 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -4.26 +11.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 161.98 -40.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 154.44 +.47%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 188.0 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 90.40 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 +27.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 93.33 +.42%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,632.25 +.08%

• Bitcoin/USD 10,287.79 -2.98%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.14 -.11%

• Yield Curve 53.75 -1.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .67% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.971 Trillion -.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.14 -.08%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 300.92 +.37%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.4 +3.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.71 -1.97%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.96 -1.12%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.76 -.49%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.14 +1.56%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.88 +.08%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% -2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 14.0 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.58 +4.72%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 461.0 +2.39%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.96 +8.16%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 171.76 +1.58%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 89.75 +5.0 basis points
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 66.88 -1.88%

• M1 Money Supply $5.414 Trillion +.83%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,009.5 +1.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 970,750 -2.2%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 9.2% +10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.86% -7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 776.70 +2.86%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.8 +2.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales -.1% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.20/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,269.0 -6.83%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 949.48 +2.98%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 102.22 +3.71%

• Rail Freight Carloads 287,339 +1.68%

Best Performing Style

• Large-CAp Value -2.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -5.5%

Leading Sectors

• Shipping +2.4%

• Road & Rail +1.3%

• Agriculture +.9%

• Homebuilding +.8%

• Tobacco +.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Software -6.7% 

• Internet -7.2%

• Energy -7.5%

• Oil Service -7.8%

• Education -9.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)

• CODX, DPHC, TXG, HCC, HCAC, SAGE, ATRA, UAA, DMYT, PRPL and RYTM
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)

• NTRA, NBIX, MTN, STAY, STRO, TRHC, ARWR, BXMT, ATGE, NLOK, NLS, MMSI, CHWY, VRM, TVTY, FOUR, HQY, RVLV, PLAY, OSTK and NKLA
  

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

 

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Stimulus Uncertainty, China Tensions, Technical Selling, Healthcare/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.6 -3.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 92.0 +48.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.04 +.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.27 -.62%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.65 +5.99%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +20.0 points

• Total Put/Call .88 +8.64%

• NYSE Arms .94 -56.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.63 +1.83%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 804.67 -.25%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.66 +2.91%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.5 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  59.28 +.94%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 171.70 -.46%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.88 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 unch.

• TED Spread 14.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  90.25 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.50 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.

• Yield Curve 53.75 -.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.51 USD/Metric Tonne +.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 188.0 +8.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 90.40 -2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 +6.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -156 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -124 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -57 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer staples sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -2.4% 2) Software -1.9% 3) Internet -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GCP, NTRA, NBIX, CRY, MTN, BILL, STAY, RH, VRNT, DOCU, STRO, SFIX, APPS, JACK, ARWR, TRHC, COUP, CNK, BXMT, ATGE, W, PENN, SDC, NLS, PENN, NLOK, NLS, RNG, BJRI, CHWY, MMSI, VRM, TVTY, FOUR, GRAF, FRGI, HQY, RVLV, PLAY, OSTK, ITCI, NFE and NKLA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLVS 2) DVA 3) F 4) RH 5) USB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STSA 2) EXPE 3) AMC 4) POR  5) BCC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.4% 2) Defense +1.1% 3) Industrials +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CODX, ZUMZ, LAUR, FRTA, OSUR, DPHC, ACMR, CROX, TXG, HCAC, VRS, ATRA, TRNE and RYTM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AES 2) DVA 3) NLOK 4) PAGP 5) IRBT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FRTA 2) DQ 3) HOLX 4) LYB 5) CROX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 59.5% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 45.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 141.0 +97.0 points
• Vix 28.2 -4.9%
• Total Put/Call .81 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .89 -59.2%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• Europe Passes U.S. in New Covid Cases, Returning as Hot Spot.
• Rio CEO Will Step Down After Pressure Over Heritage Site Blasts.
• Asia Stocks to Drop After U.S. Retreat; Dollar Up: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks headed for a second week of losses as a fresh selloff in U.S. megacap technology shares highlighted the lingering concern over valuations in certain pockets of the market. Treasuries and the dollar were steady. Japanese shares opened modestly lower along with those in South Korea and Australia. S&P 500 contracts nudged higher. In a topsy-turvy U.S. session, the Nasdaq lost more than 2% amid lingering worries that ma five-month rally stretched valuations too far. Crude dropped back toward $37 a barrel in New York. S&P 500 futures added 0.4% as of 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo. The index fell 1.8% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index declined 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1%.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Economic Rebound Becomes More Fragile With U.S. Aid on Brink.
• Fiscal Stimulus Chances Fade, With Republican Bill Blocked.  
• Smithfield's $13,000 Fine in Deadly Covid Outbreak Called ‘Paltry’ by Critics.
• Gundlach Says High-Yield Bond Defaults May Almost Double.  
• Hedge Funds Bought the Dip as Nasdaq Tumbled Into a Correction.  
• Options Mania and Real-World Risk Mean Volatility Here to Stay.

Wall Street Journal:

• Citi’s Fraser to Be First Woman CEO of Big Wall Street Bank.
• What’s Biden’s New China Policy? It Looks a Lot Like Trump’s.
• Several Covid-19 Vaccines Could Join Winner’s Circle.
• Democrats Filibuster Covid Relief.
• What Islamists and ‘Wokeists’ Have in Common.
• Rubio Seeks Security Review of Chinese Bid for GNC.
• EU Demands U.K. Scrap Proposal That Would Breach Brexit Deal.
  

Fox News:

• Cell phones of members of Robert Mueller's team were purged during Trump probe, DOJ records show.
• Trump again suggests on drugs involved in Biden primary debate.
• CEOs urge de Blasio to crack down on crime, clean up streets.
  

CNBC.com:

• Jim Cramer says ‘It’s good to have some cash’ as markets face a rough month.
• Peloton crushes estimates as sales surge 172%, expects strong demand to continue into 2021. 
• How Trump v. Biden could be Bush v. Gore ‘on steroids’.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Peloton, Oracle, Chewy & more.

MarketWatch.com:       

• Fiscal stimulus prospects at dead end after Senate vote, a top Republican says. 
• Oracle stock rallies as results top Wall Street estimates.

Zero Hedge:

• Mueller's 'Angry Democrats' Scrubbed Cell Phones After Russia Investigation.
• Trump Insists TikTok Sale Deadline Won't Be Extended.
• Our System Is Crumbling Right In Front Of Our Eyes.
• What Possible Disruption Is Coming That Requires China To Start Massive Stockpiling Of All Possible Commodities.
• Jets Wide Receiver Charged With Stealing $1.2MM In PPP Funds, Blowing It On Jewelry And Gambling.
• NYTimes' 1619 Project Author Says Founding Fathers "Did Not Believe In Democracy", America Is "Not An Exceptional Nation".
• JPM Becomes First Wall Street Bank To Demand Traders Return To The Office.
• Brexit Butterflies & Bailout Bill Breakdown Crush Cable, Bust Big-Tech Bounce.

The Epoch Times:

• National Security Advisor: China Actively Interferes in US.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.51 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.0.0 +7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.80 +.38%
• FTSE 100 futures -.46%.

• S&P 500 futures +.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.55%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KR)/.54
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The CPI MoM for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in July.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in July.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Monthly Budget Statement for Aug. is estimated to widen to -$235.4B versus -$200.3B in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Money Supply report, Goldman Biotech Symposium, Bloomberg Sept. US Economic Survey and the UBS Covid-19 Vaccine Symposium could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.