Sunday, September 13, 2020

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.50 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.53 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 222.0 +27.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.10 -2.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.88%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.1%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (LEN)/1.58
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Euzozone Industrial Production report, RBA minutes, Barclays Financial Services Conference, RBC Industrials Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Software Conference, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Forum, (PFE) investor day and the Deutsche Bank dbAccess Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on US election uncertainty, diminished US stimulus hopes, rising China tensions, less dovish FOMC commentary, oil weakness and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 12, 2020

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (PVH), (GM), (ELAN), (CROX), (DIS) and (CFG).
MarketWatch.com:     
Fox News:
Zero Hedge: 

Friday, September 11, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,336.85 -3.69%

 


















 
 
 
 
 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices
  • DJIA 27,650.70 -2.33%
  • NASDAQ 10,835.05 -5.41%
  • Russell 2000 1,493.28 -3.48%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 42.72 -3.53%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 168.47 -1.60%
  • Wilshire 5000 33,941.20 -3.52%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,122.10 -5.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,173.94 -2.0%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 661.30 -1.62%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,306.46 -.83%
  • NYSE Technology 2,954.76 -6.4%
  • Transports 11,250.70 +.7%
  • Utilities 799.52 -1.06%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 49.80 -1.86%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.98 -1.23%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,225.38 -.21%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 897.05 -.37%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 416,869 -.62%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 123 +33
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -45.5 +.39%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 490,915 -1.95%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,064,137 +.57%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -16.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.62 -6.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 100.0 -8.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +24.4
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.0 +270.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.6 -14.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.52 +20.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.85 +5.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.27 -.18%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,959.07 -4.56%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.468 Trillion -.59%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.050 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 23.7 -23.0%
  • AAII % Bears 48.5 +16.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 146.25 -2.62%
  • Crude Oil 37.29 -9.37%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 109.55 -8.49%
  • Natural Gas 2.28 -8.38%
  • Heating Oil 108.91 -6.04%
  • Gold 1,939.30 +.44%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 185.72 -.2%
  • Copper 303.15 +1.80%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 304.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.62%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 124.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%
  • Lumber 640.40 -4.49%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 865.54 +.5%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +30.8% -.2 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.6% +.9 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 100.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -4.26 +11.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 161.98 -40.0%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 154.44 +.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 188.0 -3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 90.40 -6.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 +27.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/16
  • US Dollar Index 93.33 +.42%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,632.25 +.08%
  • Bitcoin/USD 10,287.79 -2.98%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.14 -.11%
  • Yield Curve 53.75 -1.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield .67% -3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.971 Trillion -.09%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.14 -.08%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 300.92 +.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.5 -1.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.4 +3.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.71 -1.97%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.96 -1.12%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.76 -.49%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.14 +1.56%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.88 +.08%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 14.0 -.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.58 +4.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 461.0 +2.39%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.96 +8.16%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 171.76 +1.58%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 89.75 +5.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 66.88 -1.88%
  • M1 Money Supply $5.414 Trillion +.83%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,009.5 +1.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 970,750 -2.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 9.2% +10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.86% -7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 776.70 +2.86%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.8 +2.1 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales -.1% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.20/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,269.0 -6.83%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 949.48 +2.98%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 102.22 +3.71%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 287,339 +1.68%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-CAp Value -2.0%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -5.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Shipping +2.4%
  • Road & Rail +1.3%
  • Agriculture +.9%
  • Homebuilding +.8%
  • Tobacco +.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Software -6.7% 
  • Internet -7.2%
  • Energy -7.5%
  • Oil Service -7.8%
  • Education -9.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)
  • CODX, DPHC, TXG, HCC, HCAC, SAGE, ATRA, UAA, DMYT, PRPL and RYTM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
  • NTRA, NBIX, MTN, STAY, STRO, TRHC, ARWR, BXMT, ATGE, NLOK, NLS, MMSI, CHWY, VRM, TVTY, FOUR, HQY, RVLV, PLAY, OSTK and NKLA
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