Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 28.6% of Issues Advancing, 68.5% Declining
• 73 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 57.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 427.0 -30.0 points
• Vix 25.9 +3.6%
• Total Put/Call .56 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.33 +23.2%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• China’s Jet and Aerospace Giant Could Land in U.S. Crosshairs.
• Australia Seeks Clarity From Beijing on Coal Import Ban.  
• U.K. Retailers Posted Strongest Growth Since 2009 in September.
• Asia Stocks to Track U.S. Higher; Yuan Steadies: Markets Wrap.  Asian stocks are poised for a firmer open Tuesday after a surge in technology stocks led U.S. gains. The yuan held an overnight decline following steps Monday to curtail its rally. Australian shares opened higher, while futures indicated more modest gains in Japan and Hong Kong than on Wall Street where technology leaders including Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and Twitter Inc. fueled the rally. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the gauge extended gains into a fourth day. The Nasdaq 100 posted its biggest advance since April after surging as much as 4.1%. The yen maintained an advance as the dollar put in a mixed performance against its Group-of-10 peers. The Treasury market was closed for a U.S. holiday Monday. Elsewhere, oil steadied after slumping with workers in the U.S. Gulf heading back following Hurricane Delta’s landfall and Libya taking a major step toward reopening its biggest field. The Australian dollar was steady after sliding amid reports that China has suspended purchases of Australian coal. The S&P 500 climbed 1.6%. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures rose 0.1% earlier.
• Oil Holds Biggest Loss in a Week After Supply Disruptions Ease.
• Dalio Backs China, Singapore Scars, $16 Trillion Toll: Eco Day.  
• Stimulus Talks Remain Deadlocked as House Told No Votes Expected.
• Day-Trader Options Action Is Spotted Yet Again in Nasdaq Surge.  
• Barrett Gets Her Chance to Speak After Hours of Tributes, Jabs.

Wall Street Journal:

• Amy Coney Barrett and the Ivies.
• Amy Coney Barrett Should Refuse to Recuse.
• Covid-19 Reinfection Documented in Nevada Adds to Questions on Virus Immunity.

Fox News:

• Biden repeats gaffe in speech, appears to forget Romney's name.
• A look at eight key moments from the first day of Barrett's confirmation hearing.
• Lawmaker introduces resolution to remove Pelosi as House Speaker.
  

CNBC.com:

• Disney says its ‘primary focus’ for entertainment is streaming — announces a major reorg.
• Apple is about to hold ‘the most significant iPhone event in years’.
• Amy Coney Barrett will take questions Tuesday at Supreme Court confirmation hearings.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Disney, Twilio, Ethan Allen and more.
  

MarketWatch.com:    

• Wall Street hopes fade for coronavirus aid before election, but trillions in new spending expected next year.  
• 5 stocks for the next 10 years — some picks are obvious, others not so much.

Zero Hedge:

• Don't Let The Media Win This Election.
• In Latest Teleblooper, Biden Calls For $15,000,000 Minimum Wage.
• Why Did Leon Black Pay Jeffrey Epstein $50 Million?
• Kanye West Asks Voters To Write In His Name For President With First Campaign Ad.
• Escape From San Francisco: Sales Tax Revenue Plunge "Worst In The State" Amid COVID Exodus.
• Hillary Auditions For SecDef In Sprawling Pro-Biden Op-Ed Admitting Massive Defense Jobs Cuts Plan.
• Wisconsin Refuses Foxconn Tax Subsidy Payment As Company Abandons Factory Plans.
• White House Doctor Says Trump Tested Negative For Covid, "Is Not Infectious To Others".
• Nasdaq Whale Sparks Mega-Tech Stocks' Best Day In 6 Months.

The Epoch Times: 

• Chinese City Locks Down Neighborhoods, Shuts Hospitals Amid Growing CCP Virus Outbreak.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.25 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.63 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 485.0 +27.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.69 +.40%
• FTSE 100 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AZZ)/.45
• (BLK)/7.76
• (C)/.85
• (DAL)/-2.97
• (FAST)/.38
• (JNJ)/1.98
• (JPM)/2.24
• (EDU)/1.05
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 101.0 versus 100.2 in Aug. 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, UK Unemployment Rate, German Inflation report, weekly US Retail Sales reports, (AAPL) iPhone event and the (AMZN) Prime Day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and biotechnology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 +1.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 444.0 +41.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.87 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.47 +.70%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.6 -2.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .69 -17.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 -4.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.39 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 808.19 n/a

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.57 -2.17%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.35 -1.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.0 +2.43%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.80 +.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 13.0 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.68 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.

• Yield Curve 62.5 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.41 USD/Metric Tonne -.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 137.9 -12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.20 -3.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.7 -3.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +102 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/consumer staple/tech/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.6% 2) Alt Energy -1.1% 3) Shipping -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLUG, MITK, LTHM, SCPL, PACB, NTLA, SPWR, SPTN, RUN, GNMK and ZYXI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ARMK 2) GOGO 3) TXN 4) WBA 5) TJX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PCG 2) CCL 3) NKLA 4) UAL 5) LIVX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +2.4% 2) Internet +2.3% 3) Gaming +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DDS, PLT, NET, LMPX, PRTS, IPOB, TPTX, DPHC, SDGR, VLDR, DOUR, WEX, AB, WKHS, TWLO, TBIO, EGAN, BRP, IP, AMZN, TWTR, LEVI, DKNG, VEEV, SLGN, HGEN, MTZ, ACMR, SBE and FEAC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AKBA 2) VFC 3) BLMN 4) DKS 5) SWN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DDS 2) ATV 3) AMWL 4) TWTR 5) EYEN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 54.9% of Issues Advancing, 42.2% Declining
• 148 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 56.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 450.0 +47.0 points
• Vix 25.2 +1.0%
• Total Put/Call .73 -13.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 -5.7%