Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.6% 2) Energy +3.5% 3) Steel +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FNKO, AVNW, GLSI, IPHI, AMAT, UPST, BALY, LH, IIVI, AA, AIR, ADN, TILE and EOLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FNKO 2) BBIG 3) LIVX 4) WWE 5) XLP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRQR 2) WOR 3) EL 4) NUE 5) LMT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 30.8% Declining
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
• 86.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,647.0 +1.0 point
• Vix 19.4 -4.6%
• Total Put/Call .71 -13.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 -25.2%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.65 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,661.0 +15.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.6 -1.24%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (GIS)/.84
• (WGO)/1.40
• (WOR)/1.12
  

After the Close:

• (GES)/.56
• (FUL)/.48
• (JEF)/1.24
• (KBH)/.94
• (RH)/4.70
• (SCVL)/.51
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +3.4% gain in Jan.
• Durables Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
  

9:45 am EST

• Markit US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to rise to 59.5 versus 58.6 in Feb.
• Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated to rise to 60.1 versus 59.8 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +704,400 barrels versus a +2,396,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,102,700 barrels versus a +472,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -45,300 barrels versus a +255,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +2.9% versus a +7.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell/Treasury's Yellen testifying to Senate, $61B 5Y T-Note auction, Core UK inflation report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (DOCU) analyst day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Global Shutdown Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Retail/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,716.0 -192.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.29 -.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +1.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.3 +4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -8.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .76 +4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.44 +16.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.13 +.15%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 495.94 +1.25%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.14 -1.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.23 +3.87%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.51 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 19.25 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 -.7%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 152.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 152.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.87%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.70 -10.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 88.6 +1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.20 -2.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 30.3% of Issues Advancing, 65.9% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 88.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,754.0 -154.0 points
• Vix 19.3+2.3%
• Total Put/Call .50 -31.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 -3.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• Asian Shoppers Snap Up Gold Bangles to Bars Amid Price Slump.
• EU Seeks Vaccine Detente; Variants Spread in U.S.: Virus Update.  
• Asia Stocks Set for Gains as Treasury Yields Dip: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Lower Near $61 With Near-Term Demand Concerns in Focus.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  
• Powell Patient, Housing Assault, Digital Dollar Debate: Eco Day.
• Variants Rise in Some States, Adding Urgency to Vaccine Push.  
• First Class Mail to Take Extra Day Under Postal Service Plan.  
• Powell Says Recovery Far From Complete, Fed Support to Continue.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., Allies Sanction China Over Treatment of Uyghurs.
• Filibuster Debate Tears at Biden and Senate.
• Hospitals Hide Pricing Data From Search Results.
• Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment?

Fox News:   

• Chilling photos paint picture of overcrowded tent packed with illegals.
  

CNBC.com:

• Upstart shares are up 171% in three days, as momentum pours into fintech company.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: ViacomCBS, QuantumScape & more.
• Powell calls cryptocurrencies ‘not really useful stores of value’ and says Fed will move slowly.

Zero Hedge:

• Japanese Semi Plant Fire To Have "Major Impact" On Already-Bottlenecked Auto Industry.
• Border Facility Photos Leak Revealing Hundreds Of Children Huddled In "Terrible Conditions"
• Want A Job? Get A Shot!
• JPM Makes A Surprising Discovery: Daytraders Are Evolving, And Starting To Hedge Their Massive Gains.
• Former Trump Intel Chief Reveals "Quite A Few More UFOs Detected Than Public Knows".
• New COVID Cases Jump In 27 States As Fauci Urges Them To "Take It Easy" On Reopening.
• Mass Federalization: How Washington Is Bailing Out Failed States, Decapitating Competitive Ones, & Ending America As You Knew It.
• Locked-Down Americans Fatter-Than-Ever As Krispy Kreme Unveils 'Free-Donuts-For-The-Vaxxed' Promo. 
• Bonds & Big-Tech Bid, Banks & Bitcoin Break As Dollar Dumps.

Newsmax: 

• Dark Money Being Used to Fund Push on Filibuster: Report.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Newsmax Reporter Emerald Robinson Grills Psaki: ‘Why Are Illegal Aliens Getting Hotel Rooms When National Guard Were Left to Sleep in Parking Garages and Given Contaminated Food?’ (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: More Evidence Suggests China Coronavirus (COVID) Outbreak May Have Come from Military Bioweapons Research Accident.
• Biden WH Preparing $3 Trillion Spending Package to Tackle Climate Change, Infrastructure, Provide “Free” Community College and “Reduce Inequality”.
• Former Rep. Michele Bachmann Joins Steve Bannon on The War Room to Promote Election Integrity Conference Tuesday with Ben Carson, Mark Steyn, Eric Metaxas, Jim and Joe Hoft, etc. (VIDEO).
• Price of Gas Is Up Over a Dollar Per Gallon Already Thanks to Joe Biden’s Actions to Stop Pipelines and Curtail Production.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 n/a.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.75 +2.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.17 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,944.0 +34.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.9 +.78%.
• FTSE 100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Current Account Deficit is estimated to widen to -$188.0B versus -$178.5B in 3Q.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 870K versus 923K in Jan.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to 16.0 versus 14.0 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell/Treasury's Yellen testimonies to House, Fed's Brainard speaking, UK unemployment rate, weekly US retail sales reports, $60B 2Y T-Note auction, (BWA) investor day, Sidoti investor conference, Credit Suissee Digital Consumer Retail Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.