Thursday, September 02, 2021

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
  • 64.8% of Issues Advancing, 30.8% Declining
  • 185 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
  • 70.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,010.0 +33.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,808 -.44%
  • Vix 16.0 -.5%
  • Total Put/Call .63 -21.3%
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -41.2%

Wednesday, September 01, 2021

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             
Wall Street Journal:  
Fox News:
CNBC.com: 
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.0 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.57 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,984.0 +7.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.20%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AEO)/.55
  • (CIEN)/.79
  • (DCI)/.66
  • (GCO)/.03
  • (GIII)/.10
  • (HRL)/.39
  • (PDCO)/.37
  • (SIG)/1.69
  • (TTC)/.79
After the Close:
  • (AVGO)/6.91
  • (COO)/3.29
  • (DOCU)/.40
  • (HPE)/.42
  • (MDB)/-.40
  • (OXM)/2.34
  • (NX)/.44
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Aug.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 345K versus 353K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2808K versus 2862K prior. 
  • The Trade Deficit for July is estimated at -$70.9B versus -$75.7B in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.5% gain in June.
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.4% gain in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Services PMI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (BF/A) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -4.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,020.0 +87.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.53 -.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.6 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 138.0  +38.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -13.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +46.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.11 -.28%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.08 -.95%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.51 -.81%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.17 -2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 150.73 -.86%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.48 -.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.58 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 111.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 143.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -52.5 +3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.8 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.5 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 345 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +6/100K people
  • 65% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +144 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -1.4% 2) Banks -1.1% 3) Construction -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CRWD, DVN, MRO, WFC, DXC, ABBV, DY, LCID and AGFY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ABBV 2) IYR 3) WPG 4) MDLZ 5) WFC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RNA 2) LCID 3) AMC 4) SAVA 5) ABBV
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Social Media +1.9% 2) Video Gaming +1.8% 3) Robotics +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMBA, CANO, PVH, PLAN, DTIL, SLQT, ENVX, RVLV, FGEN, AXSM, ACRS, RLGY, DSP, APP, RUN, ARNA, ERII, TTCF, SDGR, EOSE, MHO, ROKU, SKLZ, APR, BGFV, UBER, GIII, KURA, AVLR, KSU, INCY, DKS, ZG, APPS, HIG, HBI, NFLX, CONN, RL, CAL and FIVE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACI 2) WPG 3) ABBV 4) PAVM 5) WTRH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PVH 2) AMBA 3) PLAN 4) EVC 5) GSL

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +7.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 64.5% of Issues Advancing, 31.7% Declining
  • 147 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 70.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,019.0 +87.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,911 +.42%
  • Vix 15.9 -3.8%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -15.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.11 +35.4%