Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -3.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -6.9% 2) Alt Energy -3.5% 3) Semis -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• QCOM, BEPC, PAR, RRX, CEQP, IRDM, FORM, CCCC, SMG, NEP, FTV, MUSA, CSII, PYPL, CI, EL, CRM, HON, TWTR, LNC, PACK, CG, OHI, TXN, ABMD, AMZN, INGR, CTRN, DV, NOVA, AZEK, TGTX, RBLX, BV, ETSY, QRVO, DUOL, PINS, SQ, XYL, WRBY, LITE, MP, SNAP, FB and SITM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AX 2) IPO 3) FB 4) HON 5) SNAP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FB 2) ELMS 3) SNAP 4) MP 5) SPOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Telecom +.8% 2) Healthcare Providers +.6% 3) Foods +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MOD, DXC, TMUS, MDGL, SKY, ADTN, HUM, RL and KOD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ELY 2) TMUS 3) DVAX 4) EXC 5) FB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DXC 2) IMKTA 3) MCFT 4) RL 5) ITW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 22.1% of Issues Advancing, 74.8% Declining
• 41 New 52-Week Highs, 94 New Lows
• 39.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,464.0 +82.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,684.0 -1.91%
  
• Vix 22.9 +3.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +6.3%
• TRIN/Arms .80 -20.0%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.75 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.44 -.08%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,385.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 +4.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.27%.

• S&P 500 futures -1.0%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -2.3%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ABB)/.35
• (ABMD)/.97
• (APTV)/.56
• (BDX)/2.85
• (BIIB)/3.38
• (CAH)/1.23
• (CI)/4.71
• (COP)/2.18
• (CMI)/3.14
• (LLY)/2.51
• (EL)/2.64
• (HSY)/1.61
• (HON)/2.08
• (ITW)/1.91
• (ICE)/1.32
• (MRK)/1.52
• (PH)/3.93
• (PENN)/.52
• (DGX)/3.18
• (RL)/2.18
• (SNA)/3.29
  

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/1.32
• (AMZN)/3.54
• (BILL)/-.18
• (BYD)/1.25
• (CLX)/.18
• (CUZ)/.69
• (DECK)/8.15
• (F)/.41
• (FTNT)/1.15
• (MCHP)/1.17
• (NWSA)/.30
• (PRU)/2.35
• (SKYW)/-.02
• (SWKS)/3.11
• (SNAP)/.10
• (SYNA)/3.12
• (U)/-.07
• (WERN)/.97
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Jan.
  

8:30 am EST

• 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +3.9% versus a -5.2% decline in 3Q.
• 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +9.6% gain in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 245K versus 260K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1620K versus 1675K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 59.6 versus 62.0 in Dec.
• Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +1.6$% gain in Nov.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, BofE rate decision, Eurozone Services PMI report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on De-escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.3 -2.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,438.0 +103.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.30 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0  -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +1.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 +19.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.1 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 399.04 -1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.12 -.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.10 -.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.92 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.65 -.06% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 730.94 -5.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.25 +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 -.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.47 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 63.0 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.60 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.8 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.40 +19.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.60 -2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 924 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 54.0%(-3.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -59/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -22.7%(-1.9 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +162 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.3% 2) Retail -2.5% 3) Internet -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DEN, PAR, IEX, APAM, BSX, RRD, GILD, NFLX, ESTE, MRCY, CHRW, SQ, DT, GRPN and PYPL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PYPL 2) ICLN 3) ITB 4) UNG 5) SBUX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PYPL 2) ELMS 3) GRPN 4) AFRM 5) LDI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume