Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 59.3% of Issues Advancing, 36.9% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 169 New Lows
• 36.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,819.0 +143.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,637.0 +.03%
  
• Vix 22.4 -2.1%
• Total Put/Call .88 -6.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 +21.4%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 53.0 +1.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.39 -.03%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,717.0 +41.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.4 -.84%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AGCO)/1.76
• (BP)/.20
• (CNHI)/.21
• (DD)/1.00
• (IT)/2.42
• (HOG)/-.33
• (LEA)/1.13
• (PFE)/.87
• (SYY)/.70
• (VSH)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CMG)/5.29
• (JKHY)/1.12
• (NCR)/.70
• (PTON)/-.92
• (QGEN)/.60
• (STE)/1.96
• (WYNN)/-1.25
• (XPO)/.98
• (YUMC)/.23
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 97.5 versus 98.9 in Dec.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Dec. is estimated to widen to -$83.0B versus -$80.2B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Machine Sales report, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (SNV) investor day and the (F) discussion of 4Q results with BofA could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.8 -2.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,710.0 +87.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.48 -.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +.55%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.0 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -2.1%

• NYSE Arms .74 +13.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.77 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.79 +.01%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.27 +3.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.32 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.07 +.47%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.5 -.1% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 779.57 +1.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 11.5 +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  89.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.38 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 62.25 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 151.1 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 -2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.7 -5.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.30 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 640 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 37.0%(-7.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -115/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -35.4%(-7.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -1.6% 2) Road & Rail -.9% 3) Alt Energy -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SWK, SUN, HTZ, AVY, BROS, NFLX, TDC, SCU, NE, THC, RUN, SNBR, TREE, HOOD, FB, SQ, ARCB, WMS, CHRS, NS, ROCC, WW, ZBH, FIGS and CRNC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CHGG 2) SAVE 3) HLT 4) HOG 5) EMB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BABA 2) ZBH 3) FIGS 4) BLDP 5) SWK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.9% 2) Airlines +2.5% 3) Shipping +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CFVI, PTON, SAVE, CNR, TSN, MARA, DWAC, VNDA, ON, SKYW, SNOW, FLYW, AMPH, NET, ZETA and ENR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CHGG 2) TSN 3) HOG 4) HEAR 5) GCI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SEED 2) TSN 3) PTON 4) SNOW 5) CPRX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.4% Declining
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 115 New Lows
• 36.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,719.0 +96.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,736.0 -.14%
  
• Vix 23.1 -.7%
• Total Put/Call .84 -11.6%
• TRIN/Arms .78 +20.0%