Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,417.82 -1.5%

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,764.0 -.71%

• NASDAQ 13,791.0 -1.9%

• Russell 2000 2,024.71 +1.6%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.12 +1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 246.20 +3.2%

• Wilshire 5000 44,865.44 -1.22%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,704.82 -2.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,612.51 -.28%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 784.40 -.62%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,340.52 +.99%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,767.6 -1.5%

• Transports 14,983.60 -1.4%

• Utilities 925.98 -1.69%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 89.0 +3.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.94 +.55%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,483.18 +1.18%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 929.54 -.09%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 471,495 +.19%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -301 +13

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.6 -1.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 368,904 -1.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,325,751 -.11%

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +11.6%

• OEX Put/Call 2.08 -17.7%

• ISE Sentiment 80.0 -22.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .83 +30.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,658.0 -307.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.26 +.3%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 29.4 +25.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.3 +14.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.06 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.0 -1.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,140.97 -.9%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.593 Trillion -.74%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +14.669 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.4 -7.9%

• AAII % Bears 35.5 -18.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 263.08 +.11%

• Crude Oil 93.4 +1.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 274.35 +2.6%

• Natural Gas 4.0 -13.5%

• Heating Oil 291.81 +1.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 214.0 (1,000/metric ton) +5.7%
  

• Gold 1,861.68 +2.7%
• Silver 23.63 +4.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 545.70 +4.4%

• Copper 447.80 -.73%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 515.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 146.25 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• Lumber 1,246.50 +16.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,451.94 +2.4%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 625.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.7% +.6 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.2% -.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.5 -1.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 320.3 -29.4%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.90 +.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.1 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.1 -6.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.3 -2.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.3% chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 63.7% chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 95.96 +.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,746.87 +.44%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 42,789 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.44 -.89%
  

• Yield Curve 57.25 -4.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.95% +3.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.840 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.67 -2.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 120.97 -11.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +12.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.25 +4.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 229.71 +3.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.87 -6.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.88 +3.7%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 220.88 +10.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.8 +.54%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 6.25 -2.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 68.37 +8.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 361.0 +1.3%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 75.03 +4.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 225.90 +4.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 98.25 +11.5 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.25 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,018.90 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 253,250 -.8%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 32.99 +5.6% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 3.98% +14.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 567,700 -8.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +15.2% unch.
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -15.3% +10.7 percentage points

• Nationwide Gas $3.48/gallon +.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,940 +36.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,587.91 +.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 153.06 -16.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 239,866 -6.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,782,705 +27.4%
• US Covid-19:  472 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 27.0%(-17.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -283/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -44.0%(-18.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.3%
  

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +7.8%

• Shipping +6.5%
  

• Airlines +6.6%

• Gambling +5.4%

• Steel +5.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• REITs -1.9%
  

• Software -2.0%

• Semis -2.1%

• Telecom -2.2%
  

• Education -5.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• CRS, COOP, Z, ZG, NXU, BE, PTEN, LXU, IONQ, BTU, NBIX, YELP, PRLB, SHLX, MPWR, NMRK, EQT, ESTE, APTS, INVA and FUN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• KKR, NEWR, REG, RSG, PDCE, KOD, LUMN, ZBRA and FLNC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.7 +12.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,579.0 -220.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.77 -1.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.02 +1.12%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.2 +9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +10.3%

• NYSE Arms .96 -1.03%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +4.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.76 +3.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.69 +2.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.49 +2.52%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.66 +5.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.64 +.02% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 862.93 +16.4%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 +2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 3.25 -4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  97.5 +4.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.50 -.46%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 57.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 146.25 USD/Metric Tonne -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.1 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.1 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 472 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 27.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -27/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -44.0%(-2.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -177 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 60.2% of Issues Advancing, 36.3% Declining
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 133 New Lows
• 44.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,800.0 -1.0 point
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,531.0 -1.1%
  
• Vix 22.8 -.5%
• Total Put/Call .88 +1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .67 -30.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.0 +1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 54.0 +3.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.70 -.09%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,795.0 -5.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.9 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.3%.

• S&P 500 futures -.48%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AB)/1.00
• (AXL)/.03
• (CERN)/.88
• (CLF)/2.03
• (D)/.91
• (GT)/.43
• (MGA)/.87
• (NWL)/.32
• (UAA)/.07
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 67.2 in Jan. 
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for Feb. estimated at +5.0% versus +4.9% in Jan. 
• PPI revisions. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Swiss CPI report, Bloomberg Feb. US Economic Survey and the (GDDY) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.6 +18.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,801.0 -144.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.76 +.62%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.2 +13.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms .64 -7.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.42 +4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 402.37 +1.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.58 +3.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.24 -1.65%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.11 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.56 +.64% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 742.62 +.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.5 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  93.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.82 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .37% +10.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 57.25 -5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.55 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.7 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.7 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.3 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 499 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 29.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -36/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -41.3%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -266 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -3.6% 2) Homebuilding -2.7% 3) Telecom -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AAP, PPC, QTRX, ENPH, NCLH, HII, OMC, ITT, AMD, LYFT, CDAY, ATGE, UBER, MC, CHX, MDU, TREX, PCG, MSI, RWT, FAF, DASH, PAGP, RAMP, ZBRA, DASH, PAA, SSTK, IPG, FLNC, TTGT, LUMN, SGEN, UDMY, IRBT, TTMI, PI and VMEO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUMN 2) MAT 3) XHB 4) JBHT 5) GES
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TWOU 2) LUMN 3) TTMI 4) QMCO 5) IRBT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume