Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 55.3% Declining
• 80 New 52-Week Highs, 90 New Lows
• 34.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,793.0 -36.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,320.0 -.91%
  
• Vix 30.7 unch.
• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 +125.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.5 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -3.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.62 +.19%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,839.0 +9.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.5 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.59%.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BBY)/2.71
• (BIG)/1.89
• (BJ)/.74
• (BF/B)/.48
• (BURL)/3.21
• (KR)/.74
• (TTC)/.63
• (TD)/2.02
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.30
• (AVGO)/8.13
• (COO)/3.10
• (COST)/2.72
• (GPS)/-.14
• (MRVL)/.48
• (SWBI)/.83
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Feb.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 225K versus 232K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1420K versus 1476K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 61.1 versus 59.9 in Jan.
• Factory Orders for Jan. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.4% decline in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to Senate, Eurozone Services PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Susquehanna Tech Conference, Berenberg Industrial Tech Conference, (DKNG) investor day, (LOGI) investor day and the (HON) investor conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on More Dovish Fed Commentary, Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.7 -7.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,812.0 +467.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.96 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +4.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.7 -3.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 152.0 +35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%

• NYSE Arms .82 -40.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.9 -3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.0 -3.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.18 -2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.16 +.64%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 287.38 -5.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 30.2 -.66% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,462.83 +86.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.25 -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.0 +8.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  104.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.34 -.80%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 39.25 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 151.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +6.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 72.9 +5.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.5 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +10.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 131 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 9.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -17/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.3%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +237 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.4% 2) Social Media -2.1% 3) Gold & Silver -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AXSM, GO, JYNT, KTOS, FRPT, SQ, SDGR, FSLY, SNAP, SWI, OSH, BMBL, ZM, KD, HCP, PLTR, DDD, SPWR, CWAN, GDRX, FORG, ENPH, BROS, VRT, GRPN, PUBM, SHC, CELH, RBLX, ROKU, SLVM, RUN, HYFM, SKYH, DIN and FSLR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FSLR 2) JWN 3) SPHB 4) FEZ 5) RUSL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOCO 2) FSLR 3) ANF 4) CCXI 5) DIBS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +4.7% 2) Steel +4.6% 3) Computer Hardware +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• JWN, ARLO, EPAM, CDLX, SGMS, PLBY, PETQ, HPE, LVS, ZIP, DY, ARCH, RPAY, WYNN, METC, DOMO, FLR, WW, ROST, PARA, TMHC, BGFV, HPQ, SUM, ANDE, CIVI, SWX, ARLP, NCNO, FTAI, BPT, SOFI and ZETA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ANF 2) JWN 3) QUAD 4) SPGI 5) ICPT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) HPE 3) ARDX 4) MBWM 5) URBN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +31.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 66.9% of Issues Advancing, 29.3% Declining
• 79 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 39.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,704.0 +352.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,387.0 -.82%
  
• Vix 31.7 -5.0%
• Total Put/Call .86 -3.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -24.8%