Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,307.92 -1.6%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,377.12 -1.44%

• NASDAQ 13,251.25 -2.6%

• Russell 2000 1,996.33 -2.3%

• S&P 500 High Beta 72.07 -4.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 234.58 -.69%

• Wilshire 5000 43,603.34 -1.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,610.52 -2.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,587.07 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 789.25 -.26%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,284.17 -2.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,410.25 -6.3%

• Transports 15,315.54 +1.1%

• Utilities 984.13 +5.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 67.30 -15.0%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.52 -5.2%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,467.24 -.17%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 928.55 -.17%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 464,803 +.57%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -482 +2,362
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.0 -.57%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 339,041 -2.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,058,132 -3.0%

• Total Put/Call .94 +2.2%

• OEX Put/Call 1.40 unch.

• ISE Sentiment 101.0 +19.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .80 +14.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,407.0 -801.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.39 -9.7%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 33.0 +20.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.96 +8.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.82 +26.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.2 +20.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,086.49 +4.3%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.606 Trillion +1.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -3.210 Million

• AAII % Bulls 30.4 +29.9%

• AAII % Bears 41.4 -22.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 289.20 +9.4%

• Crude Oil 115.65 +22.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 354.71 +19.1%

• Natural Gas 5.04 +8.99%

• Heating Oil 377.16 +29.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 410.0 (1,000/metric ton) +62.7%
  

• Gold 1,967.52 +3.9%
• Silver 25.72 +5.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 588.84 +7.8%

• Copper 491.95 +10.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 630.0 USD/Metric Tonne +24.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.25 USD/Metric Tonne +12.6%

• Lumber 1,322.0 +.64%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,567.68 +8.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 705.0 USD/Short Ton +6.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +0.0% -1.3 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.3% -1.8 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.8 -9.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 +115.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.50 +.43%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.1 +17.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.1 -6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +4.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 92.0%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 0.0%(-17.2 percentage points) chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16

• US Dollar Index 98.52 +2.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,728.33 -.76%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 40,753 +9.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.11 -3.8%
  

• Yield Curve 25.75 -12.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.75% -23.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.866 Trillion -.27%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.44 +32.6%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 142.11 +.06%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.86 -1.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 227.57 +2.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.20 +16.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.89 +7.3%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,607.40 +210.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.7 -3.5%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.71% +15.0 basis points

• TED Spread 27.75 +9.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.75 -17.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.76 +10.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 354.0 -5.2%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.54.0 +21.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 322.17 +30.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 107.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 76.0 +.5 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,027.1 +.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 230,500 -2.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 36.8 +1.1% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.21% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 463,100 -.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.1% -.3 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -6.6% -2.3 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $133.3M +64.6%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.84/gallon +.27/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,104 +1.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,388.59 -1.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +42.9%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 178.76 +10.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,860 +.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,038,115 +10.7%
• US Covid-19:  118 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -41/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -80.0%(-8.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Value -1.0%

Worst Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth -3.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Steel +9.4%

• Gold & Silver +7.8%
  

• Road & Rail +6.4%

• Oil Service +5.7%

• Utilities +5.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Video Gaming -6.7%
  

• Gambling -7.1%

• Banks -7.9%

• Social Media -9.1%
  

• Airlines -13.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• BTU, FNKO, OXY, AA, LPI, SFM, CSX, TWI, NYT, EQT, KR, SPLK, NSC, MOS, ACI, KEX, UNP, MNRL, BAH and SPTN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (52)

• HLT, GDYN, VTRS, WMG, HYFM, INVA, FIVE, CCL, INFA, DAL, ADS, PPC, INFA, WYNN, CUK, HA, IVZ, MDB, NCLH, BKNG, UBER, DAN, FSLY, SNOW, EXPE, AAL, DECK, RELY, GDRX, DVAX, NTLA, IPGP, PLCE, SKX, LITE, RIVN, ANF, BWA, GT, TRIP, BURL, CRCT, BMBL, YOU, UAL, WRBY, PVH, TSP, CVNA, VZIO and CMBM
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.7 +7.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,413.0 -362.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.08 -1.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +6.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.9 +4.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms .86 -14.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.28 +4.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 417.09 +3.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.24 +13.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 161.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.82 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.21 +8.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.62 -1.3% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,219.0 +37.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.75 +9.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.75 -17.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.47 +.49%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.19 -1.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.75 -12.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 160.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.10 +17.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.1 -3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +4.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 118 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -6/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.4%(-1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 21.0% of Issues Advancing, 74.9% Declining
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 150 New Lows
• 40.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,344.0 -430.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,166.0 -.31%
  
• Vix 33.7 +10.5%
• Total Put/Call .88 -4.4%
• TRIN/Arms .81 -19.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 +2.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.10 -.16%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,720.0 -53.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.4 +3.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -2.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.78%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.90%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HIBB)/1.22
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Feb. is estimated to fall to 415K versus 467K in Jan.
• The Unemployment Rate for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.9% versus 4.0% in Jan.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Job Ads report and the (KR) conference call could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above-Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.4 -4.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,874.0 +44.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.47 -.56%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.4 -4.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +107.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.79 +.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 406.65 +.59%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.56 +.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.08 +.17%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.08 +3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.99 -.86% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 8,219.0 +37.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 18.75 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 +4.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  108.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.21 -.2%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.13 -.75%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 38.5 -.75 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.25 USD/Metric Tonne +7.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 -4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.2 -3.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 124 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.0%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -197 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Internet -3.1% 2) Video Gaming -3.1% 3) Gambling -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FTAI, AN, PLUG, AMBA, APLS, SOFI, CWAN, ZM, IAC, RARE, TREX, SPR, ZUO, FSLY, SDIG, INVA, GDYN, ARIS, CVNA, HCP, GMS, DDOG, IPGP, AEO, OKTA, CFLT, DKNG, EPAM, EHTH, DVAX, HYFM, BURL, MDB, NTLA, BMBL, HEAR, AMLX, NET, BJ, VEEV, SNOW and TSP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) AEO 3) NRZ 4) RUSL 5) USB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WEAV 2) GRAB 3) RSI 4) BMBL 5) SNOW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume