Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 77.6% of Issues Advancing, 19.4% Declining
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
• 34.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,144.0 +438.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,000.0 +.91%
  
• Vix 27.4 -8.2%
• Total Put/Call .96 -10.3%
• TRIN/Arms .77 +14.9%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China’s Goal With Putin Is to Resist U.S. Without Economic Pain.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Sees ‘Contradictions’ in Russia Talks.  
• Germany Earmarks $48 Billion for Armaments in Defense Push.
  
• Russia Is Spiraling Toward a $150 Billion Default Nightmare.  
• Russia to ‘Default’ If Dollar Coupons Paid in Rubles, Fitch Says.  
• Asia Stocks to Lift on Easing China Rout, Oil Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Sheds Most of Russian War Gains With China Demand in Focus.
  
• Daylight Saving Time Would Be Permanent Under Senate-Passed Bill.
• Limit Up or Limit Down? Nickel Traders Are Bracing for Wild Ride.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Bombards Kyiv as European Leaders Meet Zelensky.
• Latest Updates | Biden to Join EU Leaders at Summit in Brussels Next Week.
• Bond Markets Forecast Long Financial Freeze for Russia.
• Inside Chernobyl, 200 Exhausted Staff Toil Round the Clock at Russian Gunpoint.
• Russia Softens Iran Demands, Re-Opening Way for Nuclear Deal.
• Rollback of Xi Jinping’s Economic Campaign Exposes Cracks in His Power.
• Airlines Say Fliers Are Flocking Back, Despite Higher Ticket Prices.
• In Houston, Most Companies Are Back in the Office but Floors Are Half Empty.

Fox News:  

• Biden admin grilled for national debt claim as surging prices slam families.
• Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski and female journalist killed outside Kyiv.
• Russian lawmaker demands part of US be returned, Americans pay reparations.

CNBC.com:

• The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates, but unique challenges could slow its pace.
• CrowdStrike CEO: Cyberattacks are on the rise as hackers use Russia-Ukraine war as a distraction.
• Tesla hikes car prices in the U.S., China after CEO Elon Musk warns of inflation pressure.
• China’s Covid spike worsens: Dongguan factory center locks down, new cases top 3,500 nationwide.

MarketWatch:  

• Inflation is red hot and drivers are reaching their breaking point.
  
• DoorDash is latest on-demand app to try to ease gig workers’ pain at the pump.

Zero Hedge:

• Pozsar's "Margin Call Doom Loop" Prediction Comes True As Trafigura Faces Billions In Margin Calls.
• SoftBank's Masa Son Sees $25 Billion Evaporate Amid Crushing Tech Selloff.
• 49 Republican Senators Will Oppose Iran Nuclear Deal.
• Zelensky Says "Ukraine Must Recognize It Will Not Join NATO" As Ceasefire Talks Resume.
• Progressive Governance Needs A Social Credit State.
• A Historic Day On Deck: Powell Hikes, Putin Defaults.
• US Navy Warship Was At Sea When Officials Said It Was Undeployable: Commander.
• China Reports Most New COVID Cases Since 2020 As Lockdowns Spread.
• UN Again Warns Of Mass Starvation In "World's Worst Humanitarian Crisis" - And It's Not Ukraine.
• Sell low, buy high mania.
• Those Who Chose Shaming Over Science.
• Greenwald: Russian Invasion Has Elevated "Treason"-Mania To Never-Before-Seen-Heights.
• Russia Sanctions President Biden, Secretary Blinken & Top Defense Officials.
• Crude Craters, Chinese Tech 'Dead Cat Bounces', & VXX Decouples From Reality.

Newsmax:   

• Rand Paul: Why Was Polish MiGs Plan Discussed Publicly?

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING: US Senate Votes 57-40 to Pass Rand Paul’s Bill to End Transportation and Airplane Mask Mandate.
• Two Years Ago Today Joe Biden Promised to End the US Oil Industry — Joe Kept That Promise and Today Gas Is $4.32 a Gallon.
• 3 Days After They Bombed US: Biden Admin Reportedly Gives Guarantees to Iran on Ability to Trade with Tehran.
• Farmers Warn About Rising Food Prices — One Way To Prepare.
• “We Have One of the Best Militaries in the World” – Psaki Projects Weakness Amid Russia-Ukraine War (VIDEO).
• Russia Sanctions Joe and Hunter Biden, Hillary and Others – President Trump Responds and Points Out Biden Family’s Conflict of Interest with Russia.
• Far-Left Journalist, CNN Analyst Dances on Grave of Fox News Cameraman Killed in Ukraine.
• With US Gas Prices at All-Time Highs – Democrats File Bill to Tax Oil Companies.
• BREAKING: US Producer Price Inflation Soars to 10.0% — Largest Annual Increase on Record.

The Epoch Times:

• Children in China Diagnosed With Leukemia After Taking Chinese Vaccines.

Twitter: 

• @kylenabecker - Here's how you flush all these CDC games down the toilet.
• @theragex - Russian Soldiers left in Bucha in Kyiv region, their equipment in almost every yard. (video) Luhansk region. Russian military equipment abandoned. (video)

GETTR:

•  VigilantFox - HOOOONK! The People's Convoy Continues Demonstrating for Freedom Around the D.C. Beltway. (video) Dr. Ryan Cole Explains How Micro Clots from the Vaccine Can Spell Bad News Long-Term. (video) The mRNA Vaccines Are the Entry Point for Transhumanism—China's Already Doing It.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 +3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 70.5 +3.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.44 -.44%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,708.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.6 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JBL)/1.48
  

After the Close:

• (GES)/1.15
• (LEN)/2.58
• (SMTC)/.69
• (WSM)/4.82
• (ZTO)/2.06
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +3.8% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +3.3% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +3.8% gain in Jan.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +2.0% gain in Jan.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.9% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +2.1% gain in Dec.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to fall to 81.0 versus 82.0 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,316,330 barrels versus a -1,863,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,118,000 barrels versus a -1,450,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,562,110 barrels versus a -523,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.36% versus a +1.6% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate to .25-.5% from 0.0 to .25%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC Press Conference, UK PPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (BOX) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary Hopes, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.8 -3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,636.0 -94.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.31 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.4 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.2 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 -2.0%

• NYSE Arms .88 +15.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.4 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.18 +1.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.68 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.24 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.86 -3.11%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.0 -.88% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,506.0 +5.2%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.75 -7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 50.48 +.11%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.59 +1.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .43% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 27.75 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 142.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.1 -5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.8 -18.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.7 +19.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 -9.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 70 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -5/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -88.7%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -242 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.3% 2) Energy -2.9% 3) Steel -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PSX, HAL, INVA, BIGC, WHD, SLB, WING, GTLS, TSE, DAR, CVX, XOM, ARNC, WFRD, AMTX, BKR, SLCA, SWTX, ARVN, LYB, LXU, VLO, TDW, CVI, RXDX, SD, VERV, DK, IPI, PBF, NTRA and COUP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COUP 2) SABR 3) MCHI 4) FEZ 5) KWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COUP 2) NTRA 3) ANIP 4) BABA 5) ELMS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.9% 2) Semis +2.9% 3) Restaurants +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GFS, GTLB, TMX, TWKS, AAL, DAL, ULCC, BRBR, ADPT, ASPN, ASO and UPST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) HYMC 3) COUP 4) SM 5) ARCH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SBFM 2) MCD 3) CODX 4) GTLB 5) SAVE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +30.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 63.0% of Issues Advancing, 33.7% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 278 New Lows
• 34.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,657.0 -76.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,781.0 +1.33%
  
• Vix 30.8 -3.2%
• Total Put/Call .99 -1.0%
• TRIN/Arms .94 +25.0%