Saturday, March 26, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NFLX), (LOW), (BAC), (LUV), (CTRA), (STLD), (NVT), (OXY) and (Y).

Fox News: 

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Friday, March 25, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,543.06 +1.59%























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices
  • DJIA 34,861.24 +.08%
  • NASDAQ 14,169.30 +1.77%
  • Russell 2000 2,077.98 -.48%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 76.34 +.25%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 256.55 +1.7%
  • Wilshire 5000 45,945.20.0 +1.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,773.82 +1.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,648.47 +1.3%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 783.16 +1.0%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,271.65 +.89%
  • NYSE Technology 3,651.44 +.8%
  • Transports 16,386.12 -1.0%
  • Utilities 1,016.64 +3.33%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.52 -.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.0 -.9%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,479.69 +.29%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 929.29 +.19%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 465,998 +.45%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 22 +11
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.3 +4.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 341,815 -5.5%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,850,794 -2.4%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +9.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.57 -9.9%
  • ISE Sentiment 98.0 -10.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .80 -41.4
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,271.0 +787.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.51 +8.2%
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.5 -9.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.2 -10.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 +1.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.1 -2.0%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,550.0 +7.7%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.561 Trillion +.04%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +15.531 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 32.8 +45.8%
  • AAII % Bears 35.4 -28.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 304.85 +4.3%
  • Crude Oil 113.52 +7.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 345.85 +6.4%
  • Natural Gas 5.56 +13.5%
  • Heating Oil 409.2 +14.7% 
  • Newcastle Coal 264.0 (1,000/metric ton) +4.1%
  • Gold 1,953.77 +1.7%
  • Silver 25.40 +1.8%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 600.69 +3.2%
  • Copper 469.75 -.45%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 644.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Lumber 995.10 -17.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,612.53 +3.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 815.0 USD/Short Ton +1.2%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.9% -.4 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.7% +.8 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.1 +7.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 146.68 +40.3%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.43 +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.4 +9.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 -3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -3.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 27.3%(-31.0 percentage points) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 72.7%(+31.0 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4
  • US Dollar Index 98.75 +.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,727.10 +.15%
  • Bitcoin/USD 44,433 +7.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.17 +1.9%
  • Yield Curve 18.0 -4.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.47% +32.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.925 Trillion +.09%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.39 +6.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 141.29 -.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.49 +12.5%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 215.25 +5.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.19 +11.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.4 +1.1%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,002.62 +72.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.2 +2.5%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.97% +7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 43.25 +10.75 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -2.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 71.83 +11.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 325.0 +.6%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.58 +11.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 238.36 -14.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 115.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.75 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 11.0 -1.6 percentage points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,050.40 +3.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,750 -5.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 39.6 -2.3% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.5% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 456,200 -8.1%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +12.7% -.1 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.1% -5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $130.7M -39.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.24/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,567 -1.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,274.9 -.8%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 -2.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 149.55 +3.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 266,592 +1.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,234,353 +6.5%
  • US Covid-19:  64 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of peak on 1/14/22  -8/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -89.0%(-2.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth +1.5%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -1.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +7.9%
  • Energy +7.5%
  • Steel +7.6%
  • Agriculture +7.0%
  • Defense +3.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Digital Health -2.1%
  • Gambling -2.3%
  • Robotics -2.4%
  • Retail -2.4%
  • Homebuilders -9.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)
  • TWNT, RES, EQT, CEIX, RRC, CRC, ATHA, LPG, GEF, GME, LNG and BBBY
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)
  • DFH, LEU, OKTA, SAIA, EXPI, ACI, SGHT and UPST
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Energy/Utilities Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,238.0 +40.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.13 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.4 +.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 -3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 +4.9%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +26.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.19  -2.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.76 -.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.84 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.05 +.21%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.23 -.31% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,316.99 -5.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.75 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  115.0 +4.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 49.5 -.74%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.45 +.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 21.0 +1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.4 +2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 -14.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +1.0 basis point
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -12/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.5%(-1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -121 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +65 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 42.2% of Issues Advancing, 54.8% Declining
  • 113 New 52-Week Highs, 129 New Lows
  • 42.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,228.0 +30.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,429 -1.4%
  • Vix 22.3 +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -1.2%
  • TRIN/Arms .83 +27.7%