Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin May Collect $321 Billion Windfall If Oil and Gas Keep Flowing.
• Ukraine Update: Red Cross Says Mariupol ‘Safe Passage’ Blocked.
  
• Brazil Exports Hit Record High in March on Commodity Prices, War.
  
• OPEC Struggled With Modest Oil Supply Boost During Russia Tumult.
• Stock Rally That Nobody Saw Coming Is Refusing to Go Quietly.
• Tiger Global’s Hedge Fund Sinks 34% This Year as Key Stocks Fall.
• Treasury Curve Flashes New Warnings as Jobs Data Fuel Rate Bets.  
• Visa Changes Rules for Gas Stations to Avoid $125 Pump Limit.  
• Ghislaine Maxwell Denied New Trial Over Juror’s Past Abuse.  
• LA Offers $3 Billion to House 60% of Homeless to Settle Case.  
• Soaring Mortgage Rates in U.S. Dent Demand for Vacation Homes.  
• Harvard Acceptance Rate Falls to All-Time Low.  
• Bond ETFs Revel in Record Flows Amid Worst Performance in Years.  
• Billionaires’ Tax ‘Is a Bad Idea,’ Ex-Treasury Chief Summers Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Lengthy War Looms as Russia Shifts Strategy in Ukraine.
• New York to Keep Mask Mandate for Young Children.
• Latest Updates: Aid Groups Fail to Reach Mariupol.
• Hiring Strengthens, as Jobless Rate Nears Prepandemic Levels.
• Support for 15-Week Abortion Ban Outweighs Opposition, WSJ Poll Finds.
• Toyota, General Motors Post Slowing U.S. Sales.
• New Vehicles Must Get 49 Miles a Gallon by 2026.
• Chinese Agents Said to Hire Private Eyes to Harass Dissidents in U.S.
• Shanghai Battles Covid-19 Outbreaks in Another Elderly-Care Hospital.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE:Zelenskyy tells Baier giving up Ukrainian land is 'out of discussion'.
• GOP says single Biden decision could have massive impact on midterm races.
  
• Gay employee blasts company over Florida bill: 'Disney doesn't speak for me'.

CNBC:

• Meta says employees no longer need Covid boosters to come to U.S. offices.
• Amazon workers on Staten Island vote for company’s first unionized warehouse in U.S.
• Here’s where the jobs are — in one chart.
• Key part of yield curve ‘inverts’ as short-term rates jump after jobs report.
• Restaurants are getting creative with menus to counter soaring food costs.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden State Department Will Begin Issuing 'X Gender' Passports Next Month.
• EU Warns China Not to Interfere With Russia Sanctions In Summit, Urges Xi To Condemn Invasion.
• Lawmakers Demand Hunter Biden’s Communications With Obama White House.
• Looming Freight Recession Sparks Plunge In Trucker Stocks, First Post-COVID Job-Losses.
• Fauci Flashback: "The Most Potent Vaccination Is Getting Infected Yourself".
• Judge Ousts Five School Board Members After Pennsylvania Parent Petition.
• Bunker Contamination Crisis Hits Singapore As Ships Hit With "Blackouts".
• John Ioannidis: 'Public Health Officials Need To Declare The End Of The Pandemic'.
• Number Of US Workers Testing Positive For Marijuana Reaches 2-Decade High.
• What's Going On With Joe Biden?
• Russian Central Bank Eases Capital Controls As Ruble Erases Losses.
• Judge Blocks Vaccine Mandate For Navy Members Seeking Religious Exemptions.
• Say hello to Q2.
• Banks Battered & Trannies Trounced Amid Yield Curve & Commodity Carnage.

NewsMax:

• Rep. Babin: 'Floodgates' About to Open on US-Mexico Border.
• WH Press Corps Zings Psaki on Ethics Amid Reports of MSNBC Gig.
• US Investigators See Proof Oligarchs Dodging Sanctions.
• China Accused of Ukraine Cyberattack Ahead of War.  
• Rep. Fitzgerald: WH Inventing Reasons for High Gas Prices.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Winsome Sears: Americans Know Biden Is To Blame For High Gas Prices.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: US Postal Service Refuses to Release Investigative Report on Whistleblower Truck Driver Who Hauled 288,000 Suspicious Ballots Across State Lines Before 2020 Election.
• Biden Urges Parents To ‘Affirm Your Child’s Transgender Identity’ (VIDEO).
• Who Are the Americans Coordinating Bioresearch in Ukraine?
• School Nurse Suspended For Revealing Connecticut Public School Was Secretly Giving Children Puberty Blockers Behind Their Parents’ Backs.
• POWERFUL NEW AD by Mike Davis and Article III Project on Ketanji Jackson’s Disgusting Child Sex Offenders Rulings.
• Arizona Bans Youth Gender Reassignment Surgery And Boys in Girls Sports – Democrats Rally To “Protect Trans Youth”.
• Biden Admin in Talks to Provide Smartphone App to Illegal Migrants to Pre-Register Before Entering the US Illegally (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Senators Release Bank Records Showing Payments to Hunter Biden From China.

Twitter:

• @zerosum24 - Bucha highway of death scene. (video)
• @aginnt -  What our lives would be like if Fauci was fully in charge. Bow to his imminence. (video)
  

 GETTR:

• @VigilantFox - "It's Called Communism" - Australian Senator Antic Exposes the WEF as a Subversive Communist Ploy. "It's Just Darn Wrong" - There's No Scientific or Ethical Justification for These Shots. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 799,731 Reports(+3,949 from prior week) Through March 25th, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,531.84 -.51%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices

• DJIA 34,709.23 -.65%

• NASDAQ 14,176.63 +.02%

• Russell 2000 2,086.21 +.02%

• S&P 500 High Beta 75.73 -.89%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 259.14 +1.1%

• Wilshire 5000 45,837.60 -.35%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,792.13 +.30%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,640.57 -.99%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 799.14 +1.4%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,277.35 -.47%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,642.70 -.59%

• Transports 15,512.13 -4.6%

• Utilities 1,052.21 +2.5%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.03 +.87%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.71 +1.5%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,493.98 +.49%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.71 -.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,194 +.26%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 29 +7
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.3 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 339,969 -.54%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,788,211 -3.4%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +9.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.82 -5.5%

• ISE Sentiment 105.0 +7.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .70 +17.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,316.0 +67.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.55 +2.3%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 19.8 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.7 +3.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.2 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.3 -5.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,771.8 +1.5%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.590 Trillion +.65%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +2.268 Million

• AAII % Bulls 31.9 -2.7%

• AAII % Bears 27.5 -22.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 295.18 -4.0%

• Crude Oil 99.39 -11.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 315.0 -7.1%

• Natural Gas 5.74 +3.4%

• Heating Oil 346.69 -16.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 251.4 (1,000/metric ton) -9.6%
  

• Gold 1,921.13 -1.6%
• Silver 24.61 -3.0%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 586.13 -1.5%

• Copper 470.0 +.88%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 641.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.5 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%

• Lumber 963.90 -5.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,559.10 -2.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 830.0 USD/Short Ton +1.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.4 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.3% +.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.6 -6.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 60.4 -69.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.1 +.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -9.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -4.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.2 -8.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 26.7%(-.6 percentage point) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 73.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4

• US Dollar Index 98.60 -.19%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,744.43 +.89%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 46,339 +.96%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.50 +1.09%
  

• Yield Curve -6.0 -24.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.37% -10.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.899 Trillion -.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.99 -3.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 149.07 +7.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.1 -1.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 207.89 -3.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.4 -1.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.7 -.4%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,755.86 -7.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.6 +1.4%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.82% -15.0 basis points

• TED Spread 45.5 +1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +6.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.76 -7.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 319.0 -1.8%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.4 -9.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 225.67 -4.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 112.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.5 +.5%

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 11.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,062.40 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 208,500 -1.7%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate .9% -.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 39.99 +1.1% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.90% +40.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 425,100 -6.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +12.9% +.2 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -3.1% +1.0 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $95.8M -31.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $4.22/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,358 -7.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,274.9 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.5 +12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 137.02 -8.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,262 +1.8%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,196,867 +9.3%
• US Covid-19:  64 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of peak on 1/14/22  -0/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -92.7%(-3.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Value -1.0%
  

Leading Sectors

• Digital Health +5.0%

• Airlines +3.9%
  

• Shipping +3.2%

• REITs +2.9%

• Biotech +2.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -4.2%
  

• Computer Hardware -4.6%

• Road & Rail -4.8%

• Semis -5.2%
  

• Banks -6.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• VTNR, RLMD, ARQT, RARE, INSP, CRNX, BPT, CUTR, LNTH, NFE, REPL, GDYN, CALM, EW and GME
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (37)

• COLB, HPQ, KEY, GFS, DELL, AOSL, ZUO, GXO, CONN, ACIW, ACLS, INTC, FAF, MU, UPS, XPO, BGFV, MKSI, AEO, LSTR, EXPI, ITOS, DIOD, FNF, HTLD, WERN, SAIA, KNX, ODFL, QCOM, DNUT, ARCB, SNDR, HUBG, R, JBHT and DCT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Pullback in Inflation Expectations, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Metals & Mining/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.5 -.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,250.0 +2.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.5 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.9 +2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.2%

• NYSE Arms .83 -68.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.39 -.34%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.84 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.4 +.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.8 +1..6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.64 +.85%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.6 +.01% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,873.41 +2.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 45.5 -4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.70 -.10%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.57 -.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .51% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -5.5 -7.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 -12.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.2 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.83 -7.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.7%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +105 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 57.3% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
• 47.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,305.0 +56.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,764 +.22%
  
• Vix 20.0 -2.6%
• Total Put/Call .91 -5.2%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -72.9%