Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Sector Rotation, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,330.0 -8.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.6 -.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 -6.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +34.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -25.5%

• NYSE Arms .79 +12.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.86 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 343.59 -.52%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.84 -1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.0 -2.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.72 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.6 +.07% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,871.5 -.07%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 45.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  108.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.63 +.06%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.75 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .55% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -4.5 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 163.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.1 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.5 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.3 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.83 unch.
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 63 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.3%(-.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -1.6% 2) Gold & Silver -1.5% 3) Utilities -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENSG, LXP, BAX, BTAI, SBUX, ORI and MATX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RAD 2) KNX 3) AKAM 4) BKLN 5) CLVS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COOP 2) MFA 3) KTOS 4) HMHC 5) TGTX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.4% 2) Video Gaming +3.4% 3) Internet +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TWTR, SGLY, OLLI, BRCC, PLUG, CHWY, SPWR, EVGO, GGPI, REPL, PCVX, DOMO, RDFN, RVMD, PLL, NFE, MNTV, TREX, FWRG, DCT, KTOS, SST, BSM and ONTF
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) COOP 2) TWTR 3) MFA 4) KTOS 5) HMHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWTR 2) BILI 3) OLLI 4) ALDS 5) NIO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 47.8% of Issues Advancing, 48.1% Declining
• 78 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 46.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,327.0 -9.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,010 +1.9%
  
• Vix 19.3 -1.8%
• Total Put/Call .73 -28.4%
• TRIN/Arms .81 +15.7%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.5 -2.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.58 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,326.0 -11.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.3 +.15%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%.
• S&P 500 futures -.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +1.4% gain in Jan.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.0% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the B Riley ESports Investor Day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Warns Russia Is Adding Troops in Moldova.
  
• Two European Strongmen Bid to Keep Power in the Shadow of War.
• North Korean Officials Hit Out Against South’s Missile Comments.  
• Entire Shanghai Placed Under Lockdown.  
• China Expands Digital Yuan Trials to More Cities.
• ‘Whopping’ Golf Club Fees Cited as Example of Hidden Inflation by Philly Fed President.
• Cathie Wood Says Fed Hiking Interest Rates Would Be a Mistake.
• Soaring Mortgage Rates in U.S. Dent Demand for Vacation Homes.  
• Fed’s Williams Sees Sequence of Steps to Raise Rates to Neutral.  
• SoftBank Liquidates Most of Portfolio at ‘Nasdaq Whale’ Unit: FT.  
• CIO’s Big Inflation Fear: ‘We All Begin to Make Bad Decisions’.  
• Biden’s New Antitrust Cop Threatens to Slam Brakes on Mergers.  
• Fed Is Whetting Appetite for a Half-Point Rate Hike: Eco Week.  
• Charting the Global Economy: European Inflation Soars to Record.

Wall Street Journal:

• Economists Seek Recession Clues in the Yield Curve.
• Ukraine Assesses Damage After Russian Pullback Near Kyiv.
• Latest Updates: Russian Forces Open Fire on Protesters in Ukraine, According to Video.
• Senators Eye $10 Billion Covid-19 Deal Ahead of Possible Resurgence.
• In Brooklyn’s ‘Little Odessa,’ Russian-American Neighbors Stand With Ukraine.
• Stock-Market Rebound Sits on a Shaky Foundation.
• Long Delays for Afghan Resettlements Serve as Warning for Ukrainians.
• More Young Adults Are Buying Life Insurance Thanks to the Pandemic—if They Can Get It.
• TikTok Brain Explained: Why Some Kids Seem Hooked on Social Video Feeds.
• Russia’s War on Ukraine Threatens China’s Trade-Supremacy Project.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (COST), (ROK), (MCD), (BYD), (KNX), (TPL), (MU), (STRY), (NOC) and (HII).

Fox News:

• Ukrainian president warns retreating Russian forces left behind 'catastrophic' invisible danger.
• Major airline faces furious customers after mass cancellations, delays.

CNBC:

• 4 signs you may have a weak immune system—and what to do about it, according to an immunologist.
• Amazon workers just voted to join a union — here’s what happens next.

Zero Hedge:

• Gazprom Halts Gas Shipments To Europe Via Critical Pipeline.
• Rate-Hikes Jeopardize Much More Than Just American Home Ownership.
• Roman Abramovich's $1 Billion Five-Yacht Fleet Exposed.
• "Life Is Short": US Hotel Prices Soar To Record Highs On Consumer Driven-Demand.
• Iowa House Passes Bill Requiring Schools To Post Curriculum Materials Online For Parent Review.
• Election Watchdog Finds 137,500 Ballots Unlawfully Trafficked In Wisconsin.
• Tone-Deaf Fed President Jokes About "Whopping" Golf Membership Fees.
• The Necro-Neologism Of Lethal Legal Experts.
• Judge Ousts Five School Board Members After Pennsylvania Parent Petition.
• Fauci Says China Was "Extremely Secretive" But "Didn't Necessarily" Cover-Up Pandemic.
• This Is Why Your 'Locally Butchered' Beef Might Actually Come From China.
• Breakaway Georgian Region Planning Referendum To Join Russia.
• EU Bureaucrats Pressure Beijing To Do More To Stop War In Ukraine.
• Chicago Fed's Woke Enemy Of Free Speech Heading For Promotion To Federal Reserve Board.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Pedo Conviction Upheld Despite Juror's Post-Verdict Admission.
• Pentagon Clarifies There's No "Offensive" Bioweapons At US-Linked Ukraine Labs.
• Tech Rout Leads To Record 34% Loss At Tiger Global's Hedge Fund.
• Humans Infected With 'Mind-Altering' Parasite Seen As More Attractive.
• Tesla Reports 310,048 Deliveries For Q1 2022, Model 3 Deliveries Slip Sequentially.
• The Fed Cannot Undo The Damage It Has Already Caused.
• China Accused Of Massive Ukraine Cyberattack Days Before Russian Invasion.
• Yield Curve Inversions & Media's Denial Of History.
• Ukraine Announces Million Dollars Reward Per Russian Helicopter, Fighter Jet, Warship.
• Rate-Hikes Jeopardize Much More Than Just American Home Ownership.
• How Are Food Prices Being Covered On Television News?

MarketWatch.com:

• Opinion: Why gold and platinum are a window into the stock market’s future and what investors can expect .
  
• These 10 dividend stocks with yields of at least 5% can help you take on stagflation or a recession.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Biden Telling Staffers He Wants the Justice Department to Prosecute Trump. 
• Florida Rep. Gaetz Rallies State Legislators Against Woke Disney: ‘I’ll Tell You How to Trap This Rodent’.
• President Trump Comes Out Swinging in Michigan: “The Election Was Rigged and Stolen and Because of that Our Country is Being Destroyed” (VIDEO).
• MUST SEE: Newly Released Court Transcripts Reveal Radical SCOTUS Pick Ketanji Brown Jackson Apologizing After Giving 3-month “Slap on the Wrist” to One “Egregious Offender”.
• It’s Not Just the US: Excess Deaths Skyrocket Worldwide in 2021 Following Rollout of the Experimental Covid Vaccine.
• Good Riddance: “Some” Florida Teachers Leave Profession Because they Can’t Teach Kindergarteners About Sex and Show Dirty Books.
• “The Culture in Washington Is Corrupt” – Popular Rep. Madison Cawthorn Releases Statement following His Allegations of Coke and Orgies in DC.
• An Inside Look At Biden’s Weird And Fake White House Studio (VIDEO).
• House Oversight Committee Republicans Demands Access to Communication Records Between Hunter Biden and Obama White House – Biden Crime Family Has “Profited From Joe Biden’s Positions of Public Trust For Decades”.
• LAWRENCE SELLIN EXCLUSIVE: Are the Ukrainian Biolabs Another US Military-Industrial-Complex Money Scam Involving the Bidens or Biowarfare Facilities or Both?
• Migrants En Route to United States Border Use Giant Cross as Battering Ram to Break Through National Guard Lines (VIDEO).
• Climate Change Dystopia: Washington State Passes Legislation That Will Ban Gas-Powered Vehicles by 2030.

Twitter:

• @zerosum24 - Bucha highway of death scene. (video) Just In: Reports of 300 civilians killed In Bucha with bodies found all over the streets. - AFP (Graphic Video)

 GETTR:

• @VigilantFox - "Vice President" Jill Biden: Joe Simply Isn't There "I'm deeply proud of the work she's doing as first lady with — Joining Forces initiative. She started with Michelle Obama when she was Vice President and now carries on." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 799,731 Reports(+3,949 from prior week) Through March 25th, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).