Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Month-End Positioning, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.02%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.5 +3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.3 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.2 -4.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +26.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -7.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +34.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.4 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.3 -2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 291.0 -10
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.1 -2.3% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 404.91 -.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.2 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.8 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.2 +.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 17.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 516.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.77% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.3 euros/megawatt-hour -7.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.4 +2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.5 -8.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.07 +.10:  Growth Rate +.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 17.8+.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .21 -5.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -86.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.80% +5.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.23% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 71.0%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 56.9%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +92 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -.6% 2) Telecom -.5% 3) Utilities -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SKYW, XP, PODD, SRPT, TMDX, MAX, NABL, ITRI, COUR, DH, OSW, ACMR, RRC, RC, TREE, TGNA and RETA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AAP 2) WDAY 3) FUBO 4) VMW 5) SAVE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RETA 2) RRC 3) FUBO 4) AMWL 5) BBY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• Road & Rail +3.4% 2) Alt Energy +2.4% 3) AI/Robotics +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UVE, SGEN, CLDX, SYNH, UNP, VICR, REPL, SJT, INGN, ZETA, ATSG, FOXF and FOCS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IEI 2) WM 3) CHGG 4) URA 5) MBI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SGEN 2) UNP 3) KOS 4) OPRA 5) CLDX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AAP)/2.42
• (AMWD)/1.78
• (AZO)/21.91
• (CBRL)/1.36
• (FRO)/1.03
• (IGT)/.36
• (SJM)/2.13
• (JLL)/4.59
• (NCLH)/-.84
• (PRGO)/.71
• (TGT)/1.40
• (WRBY)/.00
  

After the Close:

• (DDD)/-.08
• (A)/1.31
• (AMBA)/.15
• (AMC)/-.21
• (BLNK)/-.46
• (CPNG)/.05
• (FSLR)/-.15
• (GDRX)/-.01
• (HPQ)/.75
• (MNST)/.63
• (MYGN)/-.17
• (NVAX)/-1.05
• (ROST)/1.23
• (URBN)/.38
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Jan. is estimated at -$91.0B versus -$89.7B in Dec.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
  

9:00 am EST

• The 4Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ.
• The FHFA Houses Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.1% decline in Nov.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Dec. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.54% in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 45.5 versus 44.3 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -11.0 in Jan.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 108.5 versus 107.1 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Current Account Balance report, weekly US retail sales reports, Keefe Bruyette Woods Payments Finance/Tech Conference, (CVX) investor day, (GS) investor day, (PRGO) investor day, (PGR) 4Q investor call and the BofA Power/Utilities/Clean Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 70.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.6% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 55.9%(+4.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 +6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.8 +1.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,850.5 +.35%
  
• Vix 21.3 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 -4.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +42.9%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                                        

• Mistrust of Xi Endangers One of Wall Street’s Favorite Trades.
• US Sees China in ‘Awkward’ International Position Over Ukraine. 
• Key Coal Port Adds More Evidence China Trade Curbs Have Eased.  
• Australia Recession Risk Rises as RBA Seen Hiking More Than Fed.
• Emerging Markets Will Have to Weather Another Dollar Hurrah.  
• Rationing Alone Won’t Solve UK Grocers’ Salad Shortages.
  
• South Korea’s Doosan Robotics Seeks IPO in 2023, Report Says.
• Nigerian Parties Get Jittery as Election Results Are Delayed. 
• Asia Stocks Slide as Traders Eye Higher Rates Path: Markets Wrap.  
• London’s Oil Party Week Is Back With Talk of a Coming Rally.  
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.
• Supply Chains Have Healed Yet Their Mark on Inflation Will Endure. 
  
• Bets on the Year of the Bond Are Still on Even as Losses Return.  
• Goldman Turns to ‘Make-or-Break’ Unit as CEO Solomon Put to Test.  
• Goldman Sachs Discloses Expanded Probe Into Its Credit-Card Business.   
• Ford's Electric Pickup Is Built From Metal That's Damaging the Amazon.
• Apple’s Secret ‘XDG’ Team Is Working on More Than Just a Glucose Monitor.  
• With the Easy Money Gone, Executives Tighten Belts by Slashing Dividends.
  
• Rail Industry Pushes Sensors Over Brakes After Ohio Train Crash.

Wall Street Journal:

• Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid, U.S. Agency Now Says.
• Investors Brace for Surge in Market Volatility.
• How Companies Can Lose Workers Without Layoffs.
• S.O.S for the U.S. Electric Grid. PJM Interconnection sounds the latest alarm that fossil-fuel plants are shutting down without adequate replacement power. The political class yawns.
• Three Years Late, the Lancet Recognizes Natural Immunity. The public-health clerisy rediscovers a principle of immunology it derided throughout the pandemic.
• Another Turn in the Covid Lab-Leak Story. More evidence that those who derided the possibility of a man-made Chinese origin were wrong.
• U.S. Companies Are Planning China Expansions.
• Conservatives Have a New Rallying Cry: Down With ESG.
• Frackers Increase Spending but See Limited Gains.
• With AI, We Are All Once Again Tech Companies’ Guinea Pigs.
• Amazon Expands Same-Day Delivery, With Fees.
• Cars Return to Dealer Lots. Interest Rates Could Make Them a Harder Sell.

Fox News:

• Dem mayor one step closer to facing recall as crime and homicides run rampant in city.
• Elon Musk weighs in on Woody Harrelson's SNL monologue.
• Republicans demand apologies, tell Biden to hold China to account after bombshell report on COVID.

CNBC:

• Can’t figure out this economy? Walmart, Home Depot are having trouble, too.
• Top Wall Street analysts expect these stocks to thrive despite macro pressures.
• Union Pacific CEO to step down as hedge fund presses for change.
• Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi takes aim at Samsung and Apple with latest $1,000 device.
• Warren Buffett calls stock buyback critics ‘economic illiterate’ in Berkshire Hathaway annual letter.

Zero Hedge:    

• Watch: Polish Media Accidentally Captures Zelensky's Body Double On Camera.
• The Capex Supercycle.
• The Most Violent Cities In The World.
• Leftists Furious As Woody Harrelson Sneaks Covid Vaccine Mandate Joke Onto SNL.
• "The Media Is Racist": Elon Musk Slams Coverage Of Scott Adams' 'Canceled Dilbert' Controversy.
• "Climate Change Cult At It Again": Apple Users Frustrated With 'Green Charging'.
• Project Veritas Staffers Release New Statement As Whistleblowers Say They Stand With James O'Keefe.
• Former Treasury Secretary Admits Doubts On Soft Economic Landing - Looks To Global Institutions For Solutions.
• Biden Admin's New Equity Atlas: An Unconstitutional Equity Redistribution Scheme.
• "We're Dying Slowly": East Palestine Residents Report Bizarre Health Issues After Toxic Train Derailment.
• Chicago's Pursuit Of 'Criminal Justice Reform' Utter Failure; Homicides Top Nation For 11th Year, Crime Still Rising.
• Watch: El Salvador Sends Thousands Of Tattooed Gang Members To Mega-Prison.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Goldilocks in reverse.
• "Neither Easy Nor Fast": Electric Vehicle Owners Admit To "Logistical Nightmare" Over Charging.
• No, Red State Economies Don't Depend On A "Gravy Train" From Blue States.
• TME Weekend.
• Brutal MOVEs.
• Morgan Stanley: "Maybe This Time Is Different".
• EPA Halts Norfolk Southern's Removal Of Toxic Ohio Train Derailment Debris.
• COVID "Likely Arose" From Lab Leak, US Energy Department Admits In Classified Report.
• Governments Cannot Blame Inflation On Energy Anymore. 
• Zelensky Berates, Threatens Unsupportive Americans.
• Power-Grid Attacks Up 71% And Biden Acolytes Tell Us It's All Those White Supremacists. 
• They Do Not Want Peace, And So You Need To Prepare For A Horrific Global War.
• Hunter Biden Business Partner Flips, Now 'Cooperating' With GOP Investigators.
• What Did They Get Right?
• Are Americans Trying To Eat Healthy?
• Dictators Bent On Building Military Empires: The Cost Of The Nation's Endless Wars.
• NewsGuard Misinfo Watchdog: Contracts With DOD, WHO, Pfizer, Microsoft, & AFT.
• Jim Bovard: TSA Still Molesting At Warp Speed.
• "It's Effective": NYC Shops Deploy Crime-Fighting Dogs To Deter Shoplifters.
• Big Bear Receives More Snowfall This Week Than Average Year.

MarketWatch.com:  

• How big is the storm in cloud software? Salesforce, Zoom and Snowflake are about to tell you.
• Confused about what’s causing inflation? This metric shows what’s driving the price rise.
• Here’s what to watch for when the Supreme Court hears challenges to Biden’s student-loan cancellation plan this week.

NewsMax:

• Medicaid to Drop 14 Million from Program Under New Rules.  
• Rep. Davidson: Trump Finally Drew Help for East Palestine.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Following Recent Scott Adams Controversy – Elon Musk Jumps in and Claims Media Is Racist Against Asians and Whites. 
• An Open Letter from Omega4America to ERIC Systems on Fractal Technology and Its Superior Features in Voter Roll Maintenance and ERIC’s Outdated Capabilities. 
• Christian Nurse Suspended from NHS Certification Program for Saying ‘Being White Doesn’t Make You Racist”.
• Sen. Manchin Was Asked if He is Still a Democrat — Responds By Saying ‘I Identify as an American’.
• #ArrestKatieHobbs Trends On Twitter Following Allegations that Sinaloa Cartel Uses Money Laundering, Bribes To Control Democrat Politicians.
• “You’ve Got a Literal Witch Hunt, a Literal Witch Hunt in Georgia” – Liz Harrington on Georgia Grand Jury.
• Loser Ronna McDaniel Refuses to Tackle Election Fraud – Demands GOP Candidates Sign a Loyalty Pledge Instead.
• 42-Year-Old Former US Swimming Champ Dies in Virgin Islands After Being Found on Floor.
• Biden Regime Is Shooting Cows From Helicopters In New Mexico – Here’s What Ranchers Are Saying About the Move.
• RUMBLINGS: Democrats Are Hiding Seriousness of John Fetterman’s Condition to Avoid Special Election.
• In Explosive New Interview, Sy Hersh Details His Allegations of the Nord Stream 2 Sabotage (VIDEO).
• Michigan’s Dem Governor Gretchen Whitmer Enjoys Night at the Theater While 700,000 People in the State Have No Power.
• Democrat Bill in California Would Eventually Ban ALL Tobacco Sales, but Not Marijuana.
• JUST IN: Heartless EPA Orders A PAUSE To Cleanup In East Palestine Despite Residents’ Horrific Suffering.
• Biden Regime’s New “Efficiency” Rule Would Ban Half of Gas Stove Models.
• WATCH: Forensic Investigator John Thaler Joins Brannon Howse Following EXPLOSIVE Claims That Sinaloa Cartel Uses Bribes, Money Laundering To Control Maricopa County Elections.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘We Have Been Blind’: Rep. Gallagher Warns of Chinese Police Outposts in US.
• Tenfold Increase in Crossing the US Border Amid ‘Run’ Social Media Trend in China.

Twitter:

• @kylenabecker - Covid vaccine maker Moderna just paid $400 million in royalties to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID), formerly headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Moderna agreed to pay more royalties to NIAID moving forward. Read for more.
• @JackPosobiec - BREAKING: The Whistleblowers of Project Veritas released new video standing with James O'Keefe. (video)
• @Mario_Stifano - We all need to take note of Buffets warnings. “huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences”. $31 trillion in Debt and $2 trillion deficits predicted. We are at a period that has no historical precedent. 
• @TheChiefNerd - If you noticed your iPhone is charging a little slower recently it may be due to a new setting Apple added in iOS 16.1 — Clean Energy Charging With it turned on, iOS will only recharge the iPhone's battery when the electrical grid uses cleaner energy sources like solar or wind You can disable it under Settings > Battery > Battery Health & Charging.
• @Risemelbourne - Canada - Boom! This lady is one serious Bulldog....Watch her go as she serves Notices Of Liability to Stop All Vaccinations at clinics around Canada.... (video)
• @RealMattCouch - Saturday Night Live MOCKS President Trump’s Visit to East Palestine, Ohio in Cringeworthy Segment ‘Pete Buttigieg is Too Busy Being Gay’. (video)
• @_aussie17 - BOOM! Reported in South Africa’s Mainstream Media: “We have NO CHOICE but to bring this matter to COURT to STOP these injections PENDING INVESTIGATIONS!” (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - ZELENSKY BODY DOUBLE RECORDED IN POLAND. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 938,175 Reports(+1,692 from prior week) Through February 17th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.75 +3.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 +4.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 125.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.7 +.07%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 -8.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.71%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.