Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.8% 2) Gambling -3.0% 3) Semis -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MSTR, ALTG, SAFE, TECK, BE, FOUR, SEDG, DWAC, SMPL, RCKT, GTLS, RNA, VRNA, PII, EDR, WSC, S, CMI, ENPH, EWCZ, AMBA, ASAI, FLNC, PCOR, DE, ERJ, PD, CRH, KSS, ROKU, SCHN, CNHI, ALB, IOT, CRWD, VSCO, LAC, AGCO, FIX, RVLV, U, AEHR, TW, TWLO, TMDX, SPT, GLBE, ENVX, SPT, HCP, GLBE, ENVX, TMDX, XPOF, MNDY, ZS, EVCM, RGP, ZIM, ONON, OSTK, MKTX, FOXF, AI, PTGX, WAL and DLO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) BUD 3) TWLO 4) TD 5) AI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DLO 2) AI 3) WAL 4) SG 5) MKTX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Utilities +2.2% 2) Pharma +1.8% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• COCO, SGH and CAG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MP 2) TXN 3) WDC 4) GFI 5) SBUX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CAG 2) UNH 3) IFRX 4) CBNT 5) BURU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (STZ)/1.84
• (LW)/.99
• (LEVI)/.33
• (RPM)/.31
  

After the Close: 

• (MDRX)/.27
• (WDFC)/1.15
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 200K versus 198K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1700K versus 1689K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia trade export report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 26.3% of Issues Advancing, 71.0% Declining
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 42.4%(-3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 51.9 -3.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,891.3 -.97%
  
• Vix 20.0 +5.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 -7.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +13.7%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• US Gets New Levers From Japan to Curb China’s Chip Ambitions.
• Australia’s Rental Market Tightens Further Amid Housing Crunch.
• UK Business Confidence Rises, But Cost Of Living Weighs on Sales.
• Asian Equities Decline After US Rally Hits Wall: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Rally as Investors Shift Focus to Lower Inventories.
• TD Becomes Biggest Bank Short With $3.7 Billion on the Line.  
• UBS Chairman’s Top-Secret Prep Paid Off in Credit Suisse Moment.
• Opinion: Trump Indictment Is a Risky Bet for New York and the Nation. 
• Fed’s Mester Says Rates Should Rise Above 5%, Stay for Some Time.
• GM Cuts 5,000 Salaried Jobs Through Voluntary Buyouts.
• Traders Rush to Cover Options Exposure During Peak Fed Uncertainty. 
• Pimco Says It Favors ‘Strong Bonds’ Amid Rising Recession Risks.
• Fear of Stock Losses Has Retirement Savers Sticking With Cash.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Case Against Trump Leaves Defense Ample Openings.
• Biden’s Hot Air About Spy Balloons. It turns out the blimp was transmitting information to Beijing in real time.
• Signature Bank Insiders Sold $100 Million in Stock as Crypto Surged.
• AI Shakes Up Hollywood.
• The New Rules of Layoffs.
• Apartment-Building Sales Drop the Most in 14 Years.
• Is Your Job Exposed to ChatGPT?
• Taliban Bans Women From Working at U.N., Putting Afghan Aid at Risk.

Fox News:

• Donald Trump is facing 34 counts but what about Alvin Bragg's felony?
• Nashville police make disturbing discoveries at shooting suspect's home
• Democrat expected to switch parties, join GOP — and it could have major implications

CNBC.com:

• Job openings tumbled below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years.
• Cybercrime marketplace Genesis Market shut by FBI, international law enforcement.
• Amazon lays off more than 100 employees in its video games division: Read the memo here.

MarketWatch:

• ‘We are going to see parts of the economy break’: Recession fears move back to the forefront of markets.
• Johnson & Johnson sets aside $8.9 billion to settle talc claims; stock up 3%.
• Walmart sees automation in two-thirds of its stores by fiscal 2026.
• C3.ai’s stock dives 26% on short seller’s accounting allegations.
• Investors are mad as hell at advisers, and it’s not just market performance that’s to blame.
  
• Economy may be ‘moving from a virtuous cycle to a vicious cycle,’ Jamie Dimon says.
• Nasdaq and Dow have split in a way that isn’t healthy for stocks.
• Office buildings built before the 1980s most likely to become ‘obsolete’: Moody’s.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch Live: Trump Holds Presser Hours After Historic Arraignment. 
• US Economy Grinds To A Halt As Loan Demand, Sales Crater In Aftermath Of Bank Crisis.
• Trump Pleads Not Guilty To 34 Counts Of Falsifying Business Records In Hush Money Case. 
• Another $2.6 Billion In Defense Aid To Ukraine.
• Millennial CEO Accused Of Tricking JPMorgan Into $175 Million Purchase Charged With Fraud.
• Dem Reps Who Egged On Rioters At Tennessee Capitol Are Stripped Of Committee Assignments; Face Expulsion.
• Man Charged Over Numerous 'Swatting' Calls Accused Of Blackmailing Victims, Demanding Underage Nude Pics.
• 'If We Go Ahead On This, Everyone Will Die' Warns AI Expert Calling For Absolute Shutdown.
• US stocks declined as weak JOLTS data stoked growth concerns - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Here's How We'll Have Labor Shortages And High Unemployment At The Same Time.
• Russia Blames Ukrainian Intelligence For Bombing That Killed Russian Journalist.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Large Draws Across The Board.
• Lower for longer?
• Manhattan Real Estate Sales Tumble 38%, While Cash Deals Hit Record.
• A "New Phase" Never Seen Before: Victor Davis Hanson On What Trump Indictment Means For America.
• Tumble in US job openings hits cyclical assets - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Bad News' Is No Longer 'Good News' As Jacked-Up Jobs Data & Jamie Dimon Jolt Markets.

Newsmax:      

• Reactions to Trump Arraignment: Absurdity to Moment of Reckoning.
• GOP Says Bar Lowered for Future Prosecutions.
• In Fiery Preview, Trump Rips DA, Touts Win Over Daniels.
• Rep. Steube: Impeach Blinken, Mayorkas.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Says the Quiet Part Out Loud – All But Admits to Coordinating to “Stop Trump from Taking Power Again”.
• Joe Biden Laughs When Asked if Indictment of Trump is “Politically Divisive” (VIDEO).
• “Fascist, Obliging Xenophobic Nazis!” – Fox News Surrounded by Rabid Left-Wing Protestors in NYC (VIDEO).
• Trump Celebrates After 9th Circuit Court Awards Him $122,000 From Stormy “Horseface” Daniels.
• “THE RADICAL LEFT DEMOCRATS HAVE CRIMINALIZED THE JUSTICE SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT WHAT AMERICA WAS SUPPOSED TO BE!” – President Trump on Truth Social.
• Why Central Banks Are Buying All the Gold They Can.
• Ronna McDaniel Releases WEAK Statement as Trump Placed UNDER ARREST Ahead of Arraignment.
• VIDEO: Marjorie Taylor Greene Joins Trump Supporters Outside Manhattan Courthouse – Democrat Brownshirts Scream “F*ck You! – Piece of Sh*t!” Blow Whistles to Drown Her Out.
• EXCLUSIVE: CEOs of Multi-Billion Dollar Organizations Do Not Make Accounting Entries – THIS WHOLE CASE IS BASED ON FALLACY THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS AN ACCOUNTANT.

The Epoch Times:

• Kevin McCarthy to Meet With Taiwan’s President in California Amid CCP Threats
• US Should Rationally Shift Its Green Energy Policies to Curb Dependence on China: Cybersecurity Expert

Twitter: 

• @toobaffled - Child and teen mortality in the U.S. experiences largest increase in decades.
• @VigilantFox - Maternal Mortality Reaches All-Time. High In 2021, there was a 40% increase in the number of women who died during pregnancy or within 42 days of giving birth. Considering that "saving lives" was a priority for three years, why is no one addressing this?
• @againstgrmrs - Children that cannot even chose their bedtime are being told they can choose their own gender. It is absolutely insane we are even having this debate.
• @FoxNews - Bud Light says pact with trans activist Dylan Mulvaney helps ‘authentically connect with audiences’.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 945,820 Reports(+1,909 from prior week) Through March 17th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.25 +2.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.6 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.50 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 unch.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Declining Confidence in US Political/Judicial System, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Industrial/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 +3.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.7 -1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.8 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +9.8%

• NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.97 +3.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 386.37 +2.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 442.0 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.52 +3.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 373.71 -2.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.04 -.28%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.94 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.82 -.33%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 61.5 basis points +11.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  153.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 686.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.72% +7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour -9.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.11 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.47 -13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -3.95 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.71% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+12.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 44.6%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long