Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.5% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.2% 3) Oil Service -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DNUT, ENVX, WNC, ATKR, ABNB, CIEN, FMC, RPM, ZGN, WIRE, MOS, EVA, SMCI, LITE, COHR, FN and LEVI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MAT 2) MNST 3) LEVI 4) ABNB 5) COST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LEVI 2) LITE 3) COST 4) BKE 5) SMCI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Regional Banks +1.8% 2) Biotech +1.3% 3) Road & Rail +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, VRE, EBIX, FOXF and VERV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) TELL 3) LEVI 4) CLF 5) NVS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) THCH 2) CSSE 3) YVR 4) COLB 5) SNCE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 230K versus 311K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 3.6% versus 3.6%in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate  for March is estimated at 62.5% versus 62.5% in Feb.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to +$18.0B versus $14.8B in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• Closed for Good Friday
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 +.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 52.0% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 42.5%(+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.0 +.16%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,796.0 -.4%
  
• Vix 19.4 +1.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +19.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +8.4%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.25 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.5 +.25 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.8 +1.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.45 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 +3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.9 -1.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 1549.3 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.5 +2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -15.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -16.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.62 +3.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.7 +3.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 445.0 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 107.2 +4.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 422.7 +7.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.3 +2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.97 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 48.25 basis points -13.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 -4.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 689.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.79% +7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.51%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.3 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.8 +7.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.5 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.14 +.03:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.46 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.02 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -47.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.47% -24.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 56.1%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 46.4%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -130 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +139 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long