Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (GBX)/.97
  

After the Close: 

• (PSMT)/.89
• (TLRY)/-.06
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China New Loans report could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Regional Bank Bounce, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.6 -2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.23 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.8 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +5.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.1 -1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.38 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.2 -3.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 412.3 -2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.3 +.38%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.94 -.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 48.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 687.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.78% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.1 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -15.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.5 +2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.06 -.08:  Growth Rate +1.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.08 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -53.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.47% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 49.5%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 45.5%(+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +68 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.5% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.2% 3) Oil Service -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DNUT, ENVX, WNC, ATKR, ABNB, CIEN, FMC, RPM, ZGN, WIRE, MOS, EVA, SMCI, LITE, COHR, FN and LEVI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MAT 2) MNST 3) LEVI 4) ABNB 5) COST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LEVI 2) LITE 3) COST 4) BKE 5) SMCI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Regional Banks +1.8% 2) Biotech +1.3% 3) Road & Rail +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, VRE, EBIX, FOXF and VERV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) TELL 3) LEVI 4) CLF 5) NVS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) THCH 2) CSSE 3) YVR 4) COLB 5) SNCE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 230K versus 311K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 3.6% versus 3.6%in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate  for March is estimated at 62.5% versus 62.5% in Feb.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to +$18.0B versus $14.8B in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• Closed for Good Friday
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 +.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 52.0% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 42.5%(+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.0 +.16%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,796.0 -.4%
  
• Vix 19.4 +1.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.17 +19.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +8.4%