Friday, April 07, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,105.0 +1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,485.3 +1.9%
  • NASDAQ 12,087.9 +.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,754.46 -.79%
  • NYSE FANG+ 6,060.6 +.57% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 6.32 -.61%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 135.3 -3.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 40,927.3 +1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,445.90 +1.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,503.3 +1.3%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 787.5 +1.8%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,089.78 -3.76%
  • NYSE Technology 3,107.13 -1.23%
  • Transports 13,966.3 -1.2%
  • Utilities 970.79 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.25 +.99%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.5 +.1%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,458.89 +.01%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 922.42 -.17%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 454,724 +.32%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 4.8 -50.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -100 -83
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -22.0 -10.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 181,069 +17.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,785,807 -.34%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +6.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.89 +37.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 105.0 +21.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .96 -22.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.6 -2.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -29.0 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.07 -4.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.4 -3.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .6% -49.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.4 -2.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.5 -2.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.6 -2.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,933.1 +1.09%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  72.9 +7.7
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.247 Trillion +.94%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.290 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.3 +48.0%
  • AAII % Bears 35.0 -23.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 271.99 +2.9%
  • Crude Oil 80.7/bbl. +8.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 281.3 +7.2%
  • Natural Gas 2.01 -4.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%
  • Heating Oil 266.0 +.71% 
  • Newcastle Coal 203.25 (1,000/metric ton) +8.4%
  • Gold 2,007.9 +1.40%
  • Silver 24.98 +3.7%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 438.62 -3.0%
  • Copper 401.55 -2.33%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 428.0 USD/Metric Tonne -5.9%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.0 USD/Metric Tonne -7.4%
  • Lumber  384.9 +2.5%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,572.0 +1.53%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 365.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +1.47% -172.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.71 +19.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 44.5 -62.1%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.96 -.06:  Growth Rate +1.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.2 +.3 
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.30% unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 -25.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.5 +6.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.8 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.5-4.75%, 33.0%(-18.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 67.0%(+18.6 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 5/3
  • US Dollar Index 102.09 -.51%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,688.46 -.19%
  • Bitcoin/USD 28,450.4 -.53%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.66 +.28%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -59.0 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.39% -11.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.595 Trillion -.85% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $71.038 Billion -32.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.09 -1.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 174.04 +.67%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 +4.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.3 -.18%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.6 -.03%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 233.37 +2.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.89 +5.89%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.4 +5.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 +.77%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.6% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +9.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.15% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% -9.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.5 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 -9.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.3 +2.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 243.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 425.0 -30.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 104.80 +4.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 373.7 -12.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 239.80 +4.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 689.0 +16.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 +3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.4% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,134.50 -.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,750 -1.8%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.0 +1.2%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.76% -8.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 217,900 -4.14%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 n/a
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $144.1M +9.7%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.58/gallon +.08/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,560.0 +11.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 952.89 -.58%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 -17.4%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.0 +.91%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 234,017 +.25%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,508,487 +12.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Healthcare Providers +5.3%
  • Gold & Silver +5.1%
  • Pharma +4.7%
  • Utilities +4.1%
  • Telecom +3.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • I-Banks -3.7%
  • Electric Vehicles -4.3%
  • Semis -4.3%
  • Steel -4.6%
  • Alt Energy -5.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)
  • VRE, EBIX, TMCI, KRYS, DEA, SAFE, SCLX and IRWD
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  •  RPM, FMC, ATKR, WNC, ABNA, BFH, SMCI, FN, LITE, COHR and LEVI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (GBX)/.97
After the Close: 
  • (PSMT)/.89
  • (TLRY)/-.06

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China New Loans report could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, April 06, 2023

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Regional Bank Bounce, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.6 -2.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.23 +.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.4 +.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 +.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.8 -2.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .94 -4.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 +5.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.1 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.38 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 -5
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.2 -3.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 412.3 -2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.3 +.38%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.94 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 48.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 687.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.78% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.1 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -15.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.5 +2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.06 -.08:  Growth Rate +1.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.29% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.08 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -53.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +1.47% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 49.5%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 45.5%(+6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +68 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long