Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.5 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.0 unch. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.6 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.03%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Regional Bank/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.7 -1.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.7 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.9 +.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 -11.8%
  • NYSE Arms .93 +31.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.7 +.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 386.0 +20
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.4 -2.2% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 340.40 -4.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.7 +.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 233.19 +.80%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.97 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 basis points -8.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 693.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.12% +7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.9 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.1 -5.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +9.2 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.08 +.10:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.06 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -63.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% +1.0 basis point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.17% +5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 71.1%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 61.0%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +134 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks -2.5% 2) Alt Energy -1.5% 3) Networking -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BE, ZI, CBSH, GMAB, IIPR, TRUP, ATXS, SFBS, BOH, MP, INVA, CTLT, NRIX, MRUS and RLAY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GPN 2) VWO 3) LUV 4) RCUS 5) DV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLUG 2) GS 3) BUD 4) CVS 5) CGNT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • Homebuilders +2.3% 2) Gambling +1.6% 3) Gold & Silver +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MDGL, TDOC, SPR, HIMS, UVE, BJRI, RRR, BX and DELL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LBTYA 2) GMDA 3) VIPS 4) GPN 5) GDS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GMDA 2) CLWT 3) MDGL 4) YS 5) BBBY

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ABT)/.98
  • (ALLY)/.87
  • (ASML)/4.16
  • (BKR)/.26
  • (BBBY)/-1.77
  • (LAD)/8.87
  • (MS)/1.66
  • (NDAQ)/.66
  • (EDU)/.26
  • (TRV)/3.59
  • (USB)/1.12
After the Close: 
  • (AA)/.00
  • (CALX)/.26
  • (CCI)/1.89
  • (DFS)/3.91
  • (EFX)/1.36
  • (FFIV)/2.43
  • (IBM)/1.24
  • (KMI)/.29
  • (LRCX)/6.53
  • (;VS)/.18
  • (RLI)/1.24
  • (SLG)/1.41
  • (STLD)/.360
  • (TSLA)/.85
  • (MDRX)/.27
  • (WTFC)/2.53
  • (ZION)/1.54

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for an EIA weekly crude oil inventory decline of -621,330 barrels versus a +597,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,523,170 barrels versus a -330,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,075,670 barrels versus a -606,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.55% versus a -.3% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • Federal Reserve's Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, UK CPI report, 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +1.3
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 46.0% of Issues Advancing, 56.0% Declining
  • 53 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 47.1%(+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +1
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 -.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,809.6 +.19%
  • Vix 17.1 +1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -11.8%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.44 +102.8%