Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Loosening US Financial Conditions, Diminishing Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.4 -2.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.7 +1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.3 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.3 +.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 198.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 +13.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.95 +.42%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.26 +.77%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 393.0 +7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.7 +.19% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 347.96 +2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.0 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.5 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 11.75 basis points -6.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.12% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.3 euros/megawatt-hour -5.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.5 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.08 unch.:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.04 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -65.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.17% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 64.6%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 58.1%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -3.1% 2) Computer Hardware -3.0% 3) Networking -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SPWR, MP, FFIV, QNST, OPRA, F, ENVX, ARW, OMC, FULT, UNH, ASAI, HUM, NFLX, CSCO, GGAL, XRX, TNP, AGL, IE, RIVN, SNX, XP, LAD, MOH, VALE, ELV, HLIT, TGS, BMA, RPCT, FOUR, RIOT, NSIT, EXTR and CDW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BEN 2) CIFR 3) FOUR 4) TSEM 5) WB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) XPEV 2) RIVN 3) CDW 4) EXTR 5) LAD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Medical Equipment +3.7% 2) Regional Banks +2.4% 3) Gambling +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WAL, LEGN, MCB, LUNR, ISRG, RLAY, ABT, UAL, PCVX and ACLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BRBR 2) WRK 3) ZBH 4) ESTC 5) EXTR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WAL 2) ISRG 3) PACW 4) MCB 5) LEGN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/-.48
• (AXP)/2.57
• (T)/.59
• (AN)/5.74
• (BMI)/.55
• (BX)/.96
• (CMA)/2.27
• (DHI)/1.91
• (FITB)/.79
• (GPC)/2.03
• (HTLD)/.18
• (HRI)/2.14
• (KEY)/.44
• (MAN)/1.63
• (MMC)/2.47
• (NUE)/3.89
• (PM)/1.34
• (POOL)/3.19
• (RAD)/-.77
• (SNA)/4.14
• (TSM)/7.43
• (TFC)/1.15
• (UNP)/2.57
  

After the Close: 

• (OZK)/1.38
• (CSX)/.43
• (KNX)/.81
• (PPG)/1.55
• (STX)/.21
• (SIVB)/4.17
• (VMI)/3.38
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 239K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1825K versus 1810K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for April is estimated to rise to -19.2 versus -23.2 in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 4.5M versus 4.58M in Feb.
• The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.3% decline in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (RGLD) virtual investor update could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -.4
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 34.7% of Issues Advancing, 62.3% Declining
• 34 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 44.7%(-2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 -1
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.8 +1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,796.9 +.03%
  
• Vix 16.5 -2.1%
• Total Put/Call .93 +3.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +27.4%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Minister Lauds Putin for ‘Promoting World Peace’.
• US-Saudi Oil Pact Breaking Down as Russia Grabs Upper Hand.
• Kim Jong Un Calls for Spy Satellite Launch in Face of US Threat.
• Russian Memo Said War Leaves Moscow Too Reliant on Chinese Tech.
• Asian Stocks Subdued as Global Volatility Declines: Markets Wrap.
• ChatGPT Buzz Fuels Demand for Chips and Gear.
• Disney Is Poised to Eliminate Thousands of Jobs Next Week. 
• Biden Slams McCarthy’s Wall Street Debt Speech as Risking Default.
• Three Regional Fed Boards Sought Half-Point Discount Rate Hike.
• Fed’s Bowman Doubts Benefits of US Central Bank Digital Currency.
• Failed Wagers Against Stocks Are Giving Put Sellers Best Return in Decades.
• Treasury Bets Are Diverging on Uncertainty Over the Fed’s Rate Path.

Wall Street Journal:

• If Western Civilization Dies, Put It Down as a Suicide. We are in the grip of an ideology that disowns our genius, denounces our success, disdains merit.
• Goldman Moves to Keep Shrinking Main Street Business.
• Russian Court Upholds WSJ Reporter’s Detention.
• As U.S. Government Tightens Classified Document Controls, Concerns Emerge About Overreach.
• Single Dose of Omicron-Targeting Vaccines to Become Main Covid-19 Shot in U.S.
• Government-Funded Media Still Upset Twitter Calls Them Government-Funded Media. NPR isn’t the only taxpayer-supported broadcaster getting prickly.
• Nurse Shortage Pushes Hospitals Into the Gig Economy.

Fox News:

• University of Pittsburgh’s LGBTQ task force makes major demands.
• Couple that was beaten, robbed in viral attack during Chicago 'teen takeover' riot speaks out.
• Former Bud Light drinkers react after brand tries to make amends with pro-America ad.

CNBC.com:

• The federal government wastes at least $247 billion in taxpayer money each year. Here’s how.
• Amazon lays off some employees in its advertising unit
• Google to launch its first foldable phone, the ‘Pixel Fold,’ in June
• Global rice shortage is set to be the largest in 20 years – here’s why
• Why India is so important to Apple. 
• Goldman Sachs is watching for ‘cannibalization’ from Apple’s new savings account.
• United Airlines posts net loss but forecasts profit for second quarter.
• Johnson & Johnson expects no new Covid vaccine revenue, after shots drive earnings beat.
  

MarketWatch:

• Meta expected to announce latest round of layoffs Wednesday.
• Employees asked about their canceled bonuses. The CEO warned them against living in ‘Pity City.’.
• Bed Bath & Beyond stock’s meme-like bounce won’t last, analyst says.

Zero Hedge:

• Gun-Free Zones, Red Flag Laws Only Make Gun Crime Worse: Economist.
• Why "Net Zero" Is Not A Rational U.S. Energy Policy.
• Q1 Earnings Season Starts Off With A Bang... And The Best Beat Rate In Over 10 Years.
• Then There Were Nine: Comer Alleges A Wider Range Of Potential Biden Beneficiaries from Possible Influence Peddling.
• Fox News And Dominion Settle Defamation Case For $787.5 Million, Averting Trial Over 2020 Election Claims. 
• CRE Giant Brookfield Defaults On $161 Million Debt For DC Office Buildings.
• This Will Not Be A Normal Recession.
• New York Mayor Goes To War Against Meat And Dairy As Climate Agenda Escalates.
• Saudi Foreign Minister Lands In Syria, Meets Assad, In 1st Since War's Start In 2011.
• Texas Coordinates With ATF To Share Income Of Residents For Warrantless Monitoring.
• Sell in May?
• US stocks finished flat after mixed data and earnings results - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Sovereign Risk Nears Record High; Yield Curve Screams Recession As VIXtermination Continues.
• Blain: China Vs The USA - Does It Have To Be War?
• Netflix Dumps'n'Pumps After Subscriber Miss; Slashed Forward Guidance.
• WTI Rises After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• The US Could Use Some Separation Of Media And State.
• China 'Surgically' Hits Foreign Firms As US Tech War Worsens.
• Leaked Document Reveals The US Spying On UN Secretary-General.
• Hawkish Fed speak and mixed data sees Treasuries flatten but stocks little changed - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.

Newsmax:  

• After DeSantis Warning, Disney Announces 'Pride Nite'.
• DeSantis Strikes Back in Disney Self-Governance Battle.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• FDA: Monovalent Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Are No Longer Authorized, New Protocols Announced.
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls for Judges Who Sentenced J6 Protesters To Be Impeached (WATCH).
• Lone Woman Swarmed and Brutally Attacked by Dozens of Teens in Chicago (Video).
• Disneyland Welcomes Children Of All Ages To Gay And Transgender ‘Pride Nite’.
• Speaker McCarthy Says the House GOP Will Increase the Debt Limit and Cut Spending.
• Parents Issue Warning After Son Dies While Attempting Deadly TikTok Challenge Involving Common Household Drug.
• JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon Will Face 2 Days of Questioning in Epstein Case.
• Biden’s Education Secretary Miguel Cardona Refuses Three Times to Answer the Question: What is a Woman? (VIDEO).
• Soros-Funded St Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner’s Team No-Shows Murder Trial Allowing Murderer to Go Free.
• David’s Bridal Files For Bankruptcy, Will Lay Off More than 9,000 Workers.
• Fed Persecution of Conservative Catholics Will Involve Infiltration, Says Lawyer Who Uncovered FBI Infiltration Playbook.
• Gas Prices on the Rise Again But This Time the Strategic Oil Reserves Are Empty. 
• Biden Regime Proposes New Rule Which Will Allow Biological Men to Compete in Women’s Sports – (William) Lia Thomas Praises Actions – Champion Female Swimmer Riley Gaines Says Proposed Bill Denies Science, Truth, and Common Sense (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• US Guided-Missile Destroyer Sails Through Taiwan Strait Amid China Threat.
• China’s Central Bank Increases Gold Holdings to Prepare for US Sanctions: Analysts.
• China Accelerating Nuclear Armament ‘Without Any Transparency’: NATO Chief.

Twitter: 

• @OilLondonTV - Colorado becomes TRANS TOURIST safe haven. New laws signed by the states democrat Governor Jared Polis mean that teens under the age of 18 from across the U.S. can travel to the state and undergo gender reassignment surgery and hormone replacement therapy without their parents or state being able to stop them. 
• @TPostMillennial - A new study has found that antidepressants may actually raise the risk of suicide.
• @Tr00peRR - After FBI busts Chinese ‘police station’ in NYC, six more exposed in US.
• @economics - Another chip shortage? The already complex cycle is getting trickier to predict.
• @Jkylebass - Well funded Chinese nationals are illegally entering the USA.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 949,138 Reports(+1,651 from prior week) Through March 31st, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.5 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 67.0 unch. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 118.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.6 +.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .18 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.