Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ABBV)/2.50
• (MO)/1.18
• (AAL)/.03
• (ARCH)/10.00
• (AZN)/1.70
• (B)/.39
• (BAX)/.49
• (BMY)/1.97
• (BC)/2.38
• (CAT)/3.79
• (CBRE)/.86
• (CMCSA)/.82
• (CROX)/2.15
• (DPZ)/2.72
• (LLY)/1.73
• (FCFS)/1.22
• (FCN)/1.70
• (HOG)/1.40
• (HAS)/.04
• (HSY)/2.67
• (HTZ)/.21
• (HON)/1.93
• (IP)/.47
• (KDP)/.33
• (LEA)/2.50
• (MA)/2.71
• (MRK)/1.34
• (MBLY)/.12
• (NEM)/.33
• (NOC)/5.09
• (OSTK)/-.14
• (BTU)/1.33
• (DGX)/1.97
• (RS)/5.67
• (ROK)/2.60
• (SNY)/1.99
• (SIRI)/.07
• (SWI)/.16
• (SO)/.71
• (LUV)/-.23
• (SRCL)/.44
• (STM)/1.01
• (STRA)/.22
• (TSCO)/1.71
• (VLO)/7.21
• (VC)/1.18
• (WEX)/3.20
• (XEL)/.74
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/.40
• (AMZN)/.22
• (AMGN)/3.85
• (BZH)/.82
• (BJRI)/.05
• (SAM)/-.31
• (COF)/3.93
• (NET)/.03
• (COLM)/.87
• (CUZ)/.63
• (DLR)/1.66
• (EMN)/1.23
• (FSLR)/.95
• (FE)/.61
• (GILD)/1.54
• (HIG)/1.68
• (INTC)/-.14
• (LHX)/2.87
• (MHK)/1.30
• (MDLZ)/.81
• (SKYW)/-.50
• (SNAP)/-.01
• (TMUS)/1.48
• (X)/.53
• (WY)/.12
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 248K versus 245K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1872K versus 1865K prior.
• 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +2.6% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +3.7% versus a +3.9% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +4.7% versus a +4.4% gain in 4Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to -2.0 versus 0.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Import/Export Price reports, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +2.0
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 52.6% of Issues Advancing, 43.8% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 38.7%(-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 -5
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.2 +3.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,953.5 +1.5%
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -23.5%
  
• Vix 18.2 -2.8% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -6.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.27 -11.8%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.25 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.5 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.15 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.3 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.24 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -2.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.60%.

• S&P 500 futures +.38%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Concerns, Earnings Outlook Worries, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.5 +15.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.3 -6.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.2 -1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.6 +13.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +8.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.60 +51.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.6 +3.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.97 +4.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 406.0 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.45 +2.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 352.3 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.9 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 244.94 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 693.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.02% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.4 -2.0 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.92 -.01:  Growth Rate +1.5% unch., P/E 18.2 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.23 -18.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.39 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +7.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.48% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 71.6%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 47.0%(-12.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -195 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AMT)/2.46
• (ADP)/2.44
• (AVY)/1.65
• (BA)/-1.05
• (BSX)/.43
• (CME)/2.38
• (EXTR)/.26
• (GD)/2.59
• (GPI)/9.88
• (HTLD)/.18
• (HES)/1.03
• (HLT)/1.14
• (HUM)/9.20
• (NSC)/3.15
• (ODFL)/2.70
• (OTIS)/.75
• (PAG)/4.09
• (R)/2.97
• (TDY)/4.43
• (TMO)/5.03

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.40
• (ALGN)/1.68
• (AB)/.63
• (AVB)/2.55
• (CHRW)/.98
• (CACI)/4.66
• (CP)/.92
• (EBAY)/1.07
• (ETD)/.79
• (EW)/.61
• (EQT)/1.34
• (GGG)/.62
• (IEX)/2.02
• (KLAC)/5.29
• (LSTR)/2.07
• (MAT)/-.24
• (MTH)/2.64
• (META)/1.95
• (ORLY)/8.03
• (PTEN)/.35
• (PPC)/.05
• (PXD)/4.98
• (RJF)/2.24
• (RHI)/1.13
• (NOW)/2.05
• (SAVE)/-.85
• (TDOC)/-.49
• (TER)/.44
• (URI)/7.99
• (WM)/1.29  
• (WH)/.80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for March is estimated at -$90.0B versus -$91.6B in Feb.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain Feb.
• Retail Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
• Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -1.0% decline in Feb.
• Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,057,570 barrels versus a -4,581,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,130,570 barrels versus a +1,299,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -982,570 barrels versus a -355,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.39% versus a +1.7% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia CPI report, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 -2.9
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 20.2% of Issues Advancing, 76.9% Declining
• 30 New 52-Week Highs, 70 New Lows
• 41.8%(-3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 -7
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.4 -4.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,773.9 -.11%
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 +8.3%
  
• Vix 18.2 +7.6% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +1.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.24 +19.2%