Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• PBOC Adviser Says China Urgently Needs to Boost Consumption.
• China Finance Giant’s Missed Payments Alarm Regulators, Markets.
• Taiwan’s Election Is All About War.
• Yen Weakens Toward Level That Prompted September Intervention.
• PBOC’s Yuan Fix Is Losing Its Bite as Bearish Sentiment Mounts.
• Asian Stocks Advance After US Tech Shares Gain: Markets Wrap.
• Hollywood Studios Offer Writers a New Deal With Push From Netflix, Iger to End Strike.
• Michael Burry Exits Alibaba, JD.com Stakes in Portfolio Overhaul.
• Hawaiian Electric’s Future in Doubt After $1 Billion Meltdown.
• Biggest Treasury ETF Sees Largest Exodus Since 2020 Meltdown.
• Tiger Cubs Pared Tech Stakes as Other Asset Managers Dove In.
• Zero-Day Options Cement Presence in Reversal-Ridden Stock Market.

Zero Hedge:

• "Death Scientists?": Tucker And RFK Jr. Talk Ukraine, Biolabs, And Who Killed His Uncle
• Georgia Court Claims Trump RICO Document Was "Fictitious".
• FDA Approved 65% Of New Drugs In 2022 Based On A Single Study.
• It's Not Just The Office: School Attendance Rates "Plummeting" As COVID's "Stay At Home" Effects Linger.
• "This Is Like A Nightmare": Mother Of Jan. 6 Prisoner Becomes Desperate As Her Son Goes Silent From Prison.
• Age Of Rage: UChicago Report Finds 30 Million American View Violence As Justified To Keep Trump From Power.
• ​​​​​​​'Bidenomics' Leaves Americans Becoming Homeless At "Record Rate".
• Ramaswamy Vows To "Shut Down The Three-Letter Agencies".
• West Coast Collapse: America's Most Affluent Regions Are Dying Under Democrat Control.
• Joe Biden's Race Against The Truth.
• John Bolton Says Biden's Policy Only Assures Ukraine's Slow Demise.
• US stocks finished mostly higher amid tech strength, while bond selling persisted - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• CBDCs: The Ultimate Corruption Of Money.
• Biden Team, Secret Service Tipped Off Before Hunter Skipped Out On FBI Interview: Agent.
• Maui Wildfires Now Deadliest US Blaze In 100 Years; Only 3% Of Area Searched.
• Skittles Are The Latest Bud Light After Releasing Trans BLM Packaging.
• Tell-All Book Reveals Pentagon Knew Kabul Airport Attack Was Coming Days In Advance.
• "Shoeless Joe" And The Fixing Of The Biden Scandal.
• Nasdaq leads gains on NVDA rally while bonds continue to bear-flatten - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Are we wrong not to be max long? 
• Big-Tech Bounces; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Struggle As Rate-Hike Odds Rise.

Wall Street Journal:

• Maui Wildfire Death Toll Climbs to 96 as Residents Brace for More Victims.
• The Economic Losers in the New World Order.
• Colleges Can Consider Race in Admissions Within Limits, Biden Administration Says.
• More Americans Are Ending Up Homeless—at a Record Rate.
• China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors.
• The $900,000 AI Job Is Here.

CNBC.com:

• Japan’s economy grew 6% in the second quarter, far more than expected.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Discover Financial, Lennar, Getty Images and more.
• DeSantis urges Bob Iger to drop Disney lawsuit, accept the end of ‘special privileges’.
• Nvidia stock jumps 7% after Morgan Stanley says chipmaker benefits from ‘massive shift’ in A.I.
• UBS to pay $1.4 billion over fraud in residential mortgage-backed securities.
• Four reasons why the consumer is so confusing — and what that may mean for retail earnings.

MarketWatch:

• Stock screen spotlights 20 companies whose 2024 earnings estimates have risen most sharply.
• Risky bonds are facing a ‘maturity wall’ that could sow more panic in markets.
• U.S. Steel stock soars nearly 40% after company rejects $7.3 billion Cleveland-Cliffs offer, new bid emerges.
• China-focused ETFs drop as country’s property woes highlight ‘recession risks in China are real’.

Newsmax: 

• Ga. Judge to Let Cameras in Court If Trump Is Indicted.
• Indictment No. 4 May Be Imminent as Ga. Grand Jury Hears Election Case.
• Trump Attorneys on Georgia Charges Leak: Not a 'Mistake'.
• Trump to Georgia DA: Focus on Atlanta Murders.
• Lake: Open Borders Are Biden's Marxist Takeover.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE: Hawaii Democrat stunned by Biden’s 'no comment' on deadly wildfires.
• Riley Gaines slams Trudeau after trans powerlifter sets unofficial women's world record .

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Report: Engineers Discover Nationwide Cellular Network Connects Election Equipment and Gives Federal Government Access to Election Systems at Precinct Level.
• Kansas Newspaper Co-Owner Dies Following Unprecedented Raid by City’s Entire Police Force – Seized Computers and Equipments to Protect Prominent City Figure
• Before it Even Goes on Sale, Facebook and Instagram Ban Ads for New Mark Levin Book “The Democrat Party Hates America”
• Trump Lawyers Blast Corrupt Fulton County DA For Prematurely Posting RICO Charges on Website – County Clerk Claims Docs “Fictitious”.
• Victor Reacts: WHAT? Largest Catholic Healthcare System in the Country Partners With Abortion Provider (VIDEO).
• Crypto Scammer Sam Bankman-Fried Charged with Using Stolen Funds to Make More Than $100 Million in Campaign Donations Ahead of 2022 Midterms.
• Joe Biden to Travel to Ritzy Lake Tahoe For a WEEK This Friday While Ignoring Dead Americans in Maui.
• BREAKING: Corrupt Fulton County Court Website Posts RICO Charges Against Trump Before Grand Jury Has Voted – Takes Down Docs without Explanation.
• America Last: Biden Regime Sends Another $200 Million in Aid to Ukraine, While No Comment on Maui, Hawaii.
• Argentina: Javier Milei, Right-Wing Candidate, Wins Primary Elections and Deals Historic Defeat to Leftists.
• Conservatives Alarmed After Report That Current Maui Police Chief Was Incident Commander During 2017 Las Vegas Massacre.
• What Is Wrong With Joe? New Video Shows Smiling Biden Again Refusing to Comment on Maui Fire While on Delaware Beach Vacation.

The Epoch Times:

• Sen. Tim Scott Targets Chinese Communist Party in Latest Campaign Ad Over Buying Farmland.
• Beijing’s House of Cards Economy Is Crumbling.

Twitter: 

• @AntonioTweets2 - What are they hiding? #MauiFire (video)
• @CBKNEWS121 - OBAMA STRANGELY SILENT ON MAUI FIRES. Hawaiian Native Issues Brief Comment Saying Lahaina Fire Was 'Hard To Watch'.
• @pills_truth - This fire thing on Maui doesnt add up. How did all the boats on the water burn as well and there is a perfect circle of fire around the city. (video)
• @Vivi44939724 - Can someone tell me how this is better than fossil fuels?! (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 975,114 Reports(+1,518 from prior week) Through July 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 +11.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 73.0 +8.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 +.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.0 +.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -5.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Technical Buying, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .47%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.3 -.45%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.9 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +2.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -5.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 +23.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.2 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.8 -1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342.0 -11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.8 +.15% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 243.6 +2.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 206.9 +2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 -.73%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.48%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour  -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.1 -3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -78.3 +5.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +6.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -8.3%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.40 +.31:  Growth Rate +7.0% unch., P/E 19.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.14 +.60: Growth Rate +41.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.10 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.12% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.81% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 58.9%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -2.2% 2) Regional Banks -1.8% 3) Oil Service -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ENB, EAT, LPG, TMDX, ALRM, FWRD, SSL, GGAL, BMA, AGTI, FTRE, EBIX and HE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) X 2) MULN 3) BHP 4) EBIX 5) AMC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HE 2) AMC 3) BTAI 4) LICY 5) CLF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Semis +2.2% 2) Disk Drives +1.9% 3) Video Gaming +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• X, CLF, TGTX, SMCI, STLD, PENN, APLS, NOVA, INOD and AESI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VOD 2) X 3) GNS 4) DASH 5) GLD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) X 2) LWAY 3) AUVI 4) MNDY 5) INTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CAH)/1.49
• (HD)/4.45
• (ONON)/.11
• (SE)/.65
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.36
• (CAVA)/-.02
• (COHR)/.38
• (HRB)/1.88
• (JKHY)/1.19
• (MRCY)/.52
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% gain in June.
• The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.9% decline in June.
• Empire Manufacturing  for Aug. is estimated to fall to -1.0 versus 1.1 in July

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated at 56.0 versus 56.0 in July.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (AAON) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, China Industrial Production report, weekly US retail sales reports and the Deutsche Bank Transport Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +9.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -3.3
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 50.4% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 51.3%(-2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.2 -.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,144.2 +.9%
• 1-Day Vix 10.0 -22.6%
  
• Vix 15.1 +1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%
• TRIN/Arms .97 +14.1%