Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.25 +9.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 79.0 +6.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.28 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.9 -.2%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .17 -12.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Surging European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.1 +8.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.2 -.46%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.98 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.44 +2.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.4 +6.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +15.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +5.2%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -15.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.1 +1.95%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 322.8 +1.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344.0 +2.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.3 +1.8% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 244.3 +.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.1 +12.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 215.3 +3.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 -.08%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 748.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.8 euros/megawatt-hour +12.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 68.6 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.6 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +5.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -8.2%  +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.44 +.04:  Growth Rate +7.0% unch., P/E 19.0 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.29 +.15: Growth Rate +41.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -5.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.02 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -73.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.03% +91.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 64.6%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 62.0%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -238 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -98 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -3.1% 2) Regional Banks -3.0% 3) Alt Energy -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ARES, NVEI, SSL, MPC, LEGN, DLO, SATS, AGTIN, ODD, FWRD, SPR, DFS, ONON, HE and SE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HE 2) SE 3) COTY 4) PBR 5) ALLY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DSGN 2) HE 3) ONON 4) SE 5) DFS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Homebuilding +1.3% 2) Pharma +.2% 3) Software unch.
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SLRN, IONQ, ACLX, EVBG, MITK, ASLE, LYFT, TGTX, BLMN, MRVI and FLGT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ASTL 2) SE 3) IOVA 4) VOD 5) XP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PSFE 2) DHI 3) RSKD 4) NVTS 5) LYFT

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (EAT)/1.32
  • (JD)/4.95
  • (PFGC)/1.14
  • (TGT)/1.43
  • (TJX)/.77
After the Close: 
  • (AVT)/1.65
  • (CSCO)/1.06
  • (SQM)/2.44
  • (SNPS)/2.74
  • (WOLF)/-.20
Economic Releases   
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to rise to 1448K versus 1434K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1466K versus 1440K in June.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity for Aug.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in June.
  • Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 79.1% versus 78.9% in June.
  • Manufacturing Production for July is estimated unch. versus a -.3% decline in June.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,400,000 barrels versus a +5,851,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrels versus a -2,661,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -780,000 barrels versus a -1,706,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.4% versus a +1.1% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • July 26 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (AAON) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK CPI report, Eurozone GDP report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +1.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 +1.3
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 21.8% of Issues Advancing, 75.8% Declining
  • 23 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
  • 49.5%(-4.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 -6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.2 -.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,246.2 +.4%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.0 -6.9%
  • Vix 16.0 +8.2%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.02 -4.7%