Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC.com:
 Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:  
BreakingDefense.com - 
  • Shanahan: China Is Deploying Directed Energy Weapons. (April 9th, 2019) SPACE SYMPOSIUM: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on April 9 bluntly asserted that China’s PLA is “deploying directed energy (DE) weapons,” adding that “Russia is doing many of the same things.”  In perhaps the strongest rhetoric yet from a Trump administration official about counterspace threats to US satellite systems, Shanahan said: “Both China and Russia have weaponized space with the intent to hold American space capabilities at risk.”
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.0 +3.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 75.5 -3.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.4 +.3%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 20.0 -12.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.34%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.81%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -1.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .71%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.0 -.04%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.29 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 -.64%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.3 +.69% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +48.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 -9.5%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -31.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.1 +1.47%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.09 -1.09%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 +7.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.2 +1.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 245.57 +.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.4 +5.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 214.7 -.69%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.75%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.6 +3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -66.7 +8.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) -8.0%  +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.56 +.12:  Growth Rate +7.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.88 +.59: Growth Rate +41.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .35 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.03 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -73.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% +73.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 61.0%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 58.9%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +48 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -95 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On loses in my medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Networking -2.3% 2) Digital Health -2.1% 3) Alt Energy -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DFS, SEDG, CIEN, EAT, FLNG, MODN, ABCM, AMLX, HESM, PSFE, SATS, DEA, SIMO, EXTR, JKHY, TSE, AGTI, ZIM, TSAT, LITE, IONQ, TSEM, RAPT, ARHS and COHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) COHR 2) AX 3) EWG 4) TSEM 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) COHR 2) SPGC 3) VFS 4) SICP 5) ZIM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Insurance +1.3% 2) Steel +.7% 3) Utilities +.6
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GCT, HE, HRB, PFGC, PGR, VITL, MXL, MRCY, QNST, LRN, TJX, X, CEQP, USFD and TGT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PSX 2) DLO 3) GGAL 4) HE 5) FLR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NVOS 2) PGR 3) DLO 4) HRB 5) PFGC

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DOLE)/.34
  • (LITE)/.56
  • (SPTN)/.64
  • (TPR)/.97
  • (PLCE)/-2.13
  • (WMT)/1.71
After the Close: 
  • (AMAT)/1.74
  • (BILL)/.41
  • (ROST)/1.16
Economic Releases   
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 240K versus 248K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1700K versus 1684K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -10.2 versus -13.5 in July.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for July is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.7% decline in June.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (AAON) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia employment data, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DFS) business update and the (UHAL) analyst meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -8.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 +4.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 45.4% of Issues Advancing, 51.1% Declining
  • 38 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
  • 48.3%(+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.6 -.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,241.3 -.06%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.4 -19.9%
  • Vix 16.2 -1.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +1.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.34 +8.9%