Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.75 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.73%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.5 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 19.0 -7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less Dovish Fed "Priced In" Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .83%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.6 +.79%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.18 +.33%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.0 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -26.3%

• NYSE Arms .78 +16.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.31 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 337.41 -.97%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 357.0 -10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.2 +.68% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.87 +1.52%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.7 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 220.8 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.65%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 184.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 748.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.77%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.78 euros/megawatt-hour +12.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.4 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.6 +8.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(472 of 500 reporting) -7.3%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.76 -.16:  Growth Rate +6.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.10% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.59 +.06: Growth Rate +42.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.17 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -65.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 57.8%(-6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 56.0%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.6% 2) Regional Banks -1.1% 3) REITs -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HE and NSSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MCHI 2) COTY 3) NOVA 4) M 5) SPLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NSSC 2) NKLA 3) AMC 4) IBRX 5) BTAI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Cyber Security +2.5% 2) Semis +2.2% 3) Biotech +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AAOI, S, PANW, ESTE, INBX, MRNA, NVDA, LMB, TSLA, SCU, VMW, RCKT, ZS, EBIX, SG, AMLX, REGN, AMAT and IDYA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PR 2) MSOS 3) DBI 4) DKS 5) PANW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PANW 2) SKLZ 3) SOPA 4) TIRX 5) AAOI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIDU)/16.8
• (BJ)/.90
• (CSIQ)/1.52
• (COTY)/.02
• (DKS)/3.81

After the Close: 

• (TOL)/2.84
• (LOW)/4.47
• (MDT)/1.11
• (M)/.14
• (SCSC)/.75
• (URBN)/.89
• (LZB)/.55
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for Aug.

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 4.15M versus 4.16M in June.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to -10 versus -9 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Eurozone Current Account report, weekly US retail sales reports and the Needham Semi/SemiCap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 +.9
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 26.1% of Issues Advancing, 73.9% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 65 New Lows
• 45.2%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.5 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,235.3 +1.0%
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -21.9%
  
• Vix 18.0 +3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -22.0%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +26.9%