Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less China Economy Pessimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.5 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.8 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.2 -.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -9.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.01 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 321.37 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 318.0 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.1 -.78% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.6 +.82%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.5 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.23 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.02 +.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 906.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.55 +.08:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.1 percent point, P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.72 +.13: Growth Rate +58.4% unch., P/E 28.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .06 -17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 55.3%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.5% 2) Banks -1.3% 3) Alt Energy -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBD, RH, PTCT, EXAS, VSAT, GEL, IMVT, AFRM, BOWL, PARA, RILY, ING, PRAA, HTZ, SCHL and MORF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) ABEV 3) BMBL 4) EVLV 5) STNE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEPT 2) TTOO 3) SCHL 4) ACHR 5) LAW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +1.3% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Video Gaming +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATEX, COHR, MRTX, HPK and SGEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) AMT 3) FREY 4) SNDX 5) COHR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ATEX 2) CCG 3) MLGO 4) SQSP 5) BILI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (THO)/.95
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Sept. is estimated to rise to -13.9 versus -17.2 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany IFO data could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -24.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -1.1
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 68.1% of Issues Advancing, 28.9% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 111 New Lows
• 39.2%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.8 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,378.5 +.61%
• 1-Day Vix 11.1 -41.8%
  
• Vix 16.3 -7.0%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.04 -7.1%
• TRIN/Arms .99 -22.1%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Ultra-Rich Gen Zs Flock Home as Global Tensions Rise.
• China Tests New Property Model in Xi’s Flagship City Amid Crisis.
• ECB’s Lane Says Rates Will Be Restrictive as Long as Necessary.
• BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged for First Time in Almost Two Years.
• Asia Stocks to Follow US Losses With Focus on BOJ: Markets Wrap.
• Stocks Sink Most in Six Months After Recent Runup in Treasury Yields.
• Oil Set for Weekly Loss as Hawkish Fed Overshadows Tight Market. 
• Rupert Murdoch Leaves Future of Media Empire to His Son, Lachlan.
• Sam Bankman-Fried Bid’s for Jail Release Denied by Appeals Court.
• Once Silicon Valley’s Star, Cisco Looks to Splunk for Fresh Mojo.
• Everything Selloff Snowballs While Traders Adjust to Fed’s Reality.
• The Hidden Threat to US Energy Security.
• US Soft Landing Is Unlikely, Former Fed Officials Kohn, Warsh Say.
• Hedge Fund Manager Jampel Stops Shorting Fossil Fuel Stocks. 
• Ex-Goldman Bankers Make a Fortune With Controversial Bet on Coal.
• American Airlines Is Latest to Find Suspect Parts on Aircraft.
• The Fed’s Dream of a Soft Landing Is Facing a Triple Threat.
• Hyped Trio of IPOs Drop Toward Offer Price With Rates Still High.
• Diners Making Over $125,000 Are Spending Less at Ruth's Chris and Capital Grille.

Zero Hedge:

• Morgan Stanley Quants: "We Are On The Verge Of Triggering Billions In Forced Selling".
• McCarthy Fails For 2nd Time To Advance Bill Funding Defense Department As Ukraine Sows Division.
• Lawlessness Spreads To Suburbia: Westport Man Carjacked In Own Garage.
• Pfizer-Funded Study Shows Poor Effectiveness For COVID-19 Vaccine In Young Children.
• Leftist Mayor Calls 911 On Peaceful Petitioners - Describes Them As "Far Right Wing".
• Olive Garden Owner Warns: "Decline In Fine Dining" As Wealthy Americans Trade Down To Cheap Booze.
• Eric Clapton Helps RFK Jr. Raise $2.2 Million At Los Angeles Fundraiser.
• Next Arms Package For Ukraine Includes More Internationally-Banned Cluster Bombs.
• Trudeau Tried But Failed To Convince Allies To Condemn India Over Killing Of Sikh Leader.
• US stocks extended on losses as yields continued to climb in post-FOMC fallout and amid a central bank frenzy - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Judge Denies Request, Orders Hunter Biden To Appear In Court.
• Jordan Subpoenas FBI Censorship Czar Elvis Chan Over Apparent Perjury, Ducking Testimony.
• Globalism Is The Real Pandemic.
• 3 charts we are watching: Make or break.
• Fed Balance Sheet Plunges By Most In Over 3 Years As Retail Money-Market Inflows Continue.
• Stock and bond slump deepens after stagflationary data and BoE rate pause - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 'Truck This': Why I'm Leaving The Long-Haul Industry.
• Bond Bloodbath Trounces Tech; Batters Bitcoin, Banks, & Bullion.

Wall Street Journal:

• FTC Sues Large Private-Equity-Backed Anesthesia Provider.
• This $100 Billion Luxury Complex Is Haunting a Troubled Chinese Developer.
• Rising Bond Yields, Interest-Rate Worries Drag Stocks Lower.
• Higher Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever.
• Inside Apple’s Spectacular Failure to Build a Key Part for Its New iPhones.
• The Great Northeast Wind Bailout. The politicians are already demanding more green corporate welfare.
• China’s Fighter Jets Aren’t Just Flying Around Taiwan. They’re Practicing.

CNBC.com:

• States push to install heat pumps, a cleaner alternative to gas furnaces that also provide AC
• Ex-Bridgewater CEO McCormick set to get big money backing for U.S. Senate run in Pennsylvania
• Wall Street’s ‘meh’ response to tech IPOs shows Silicon Valley’s valuation problem
• Biden announces $325 million military aid package during a White House meeting with Zelenskyy
• House recesses after Defense bill, government funding plan implode

MarketWatch.com:

• Opinion: The bullish case for U.S. stocks is getting weaker.
• A stranger in your hotel room? Kitty-litter shortages? Online attacks are causing real-world effects.
• Oil is going to trade above $100 a barrel, says veteran commodity trader Mark Fisher
• Student-loan payments are about to resume. Defaults are expected to follow.
• Buying a starter home is 60% more expensive than renting in most major cities, report shows.

Newsmax:

• Sen. Blackburn: Schumer 'Cheering' for Shutdown.
• Third IRS Official Says DOJ Blocked Charges for Hunter.
• Rep. Van Drew: 'Climate' Under Garland Allowed FBI's Actions.

Fox News:

• Rupert Murdoch announces transition to new role of Chairman Emeritus of Fox Corporation and News Corp.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Long-Tenured Referee Ken Mauer Sues NBA After Being Forced Out for Objecting to COVID Vaccine- League Freezes His Pension (Video).
• Doctor Censored by Biden Administration Calls Out Scheme of Threats and ‘Coercion’.
• Ukrainian Ungratefulness and Entitlement Went Too Far, so Poland’s Decision to Stop Supplying Weapons to Ukraine May Signal the Beginning of the End to Kiev’s Regime.
• Unbelievable! Karine Jean-Pierre Cuts Off Peter Doocy, Shuts Him Down, Refuses to Answer Question on Biden Border Crisis (VIDEO).
• Critics Aren’t Buying Story Of Why Pilot Ejected From $100 Million F-35 Fighter Jet Before It Crashed—Here’s What They’re Saying.
• Biden’s DOJ Knew Non-Violent J6’er Matthew Perna, Who Walked Into the Capitol Through an Open Door, Was Suicidal—But Instead of Backing Off, They Did the Unconscionable…[VIDEO].
• Project Veritas Suspends All Operations Months After Ousting James O’Keefe, Ongoing Lawsuits.
• New York’s Democrat Gov. Hochul Blasts Illegal Aliens: “If You’re Going to Leave Your Country, Go Somewhere Else!” (VIDEO).
• Experts, Media Wrong! COVID Vaccine mRNA Ends up in Mothers’ Milk.
• Chinese Journalist Said to Have Given Birth to a Love Child From Ousted Foreign Minister Qin Gang Has Disappeared – Mentions of Fu Xiaotian Are Being Censored From Chinese Social Media.
• Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer to Testify TODAY in Kari Lake’s Trial in Lawsuit to Inspect Fraudulent Mail-in Ballot Signatures – SUBPOENA INCLUDED.

The Epoch Times:

• Drugs: The Largest National Security Threat for 2024.
• The Days of China’s Fast Growth Are Done.

Twitter:

• @backtolife_2023 - The clean energy ‘scam’ is unravelling ‘very quickly’: Cory Bernardi Source: Sky News Australia. (video)
• @TheGreatSifting - The pathway to instant slavery as an indentured servant is when you accept digital currency. (video)
• @America1stLegal - We just sued the federal trade commission for illegally concealing documents on government targeting of @elonmusk and @X, formally known as Twitter.
• @GenFlynn - The people in the United States don’t trust the DOJ or other government agencies, especially those in the Intel Community. While there are many good people, they need to understand, just following orders, is not a good excuse. Where are the whistleblowers? (video)
• @charliekirk11 - This is video from Eagle Pass, Texas today. Tens of thousands of unvetted, unknown male illegals are simply walking into America like they own the place. (video)
• @disclosetv - JUST IN - Biden launches "American Climate Corps" to mobilize young people for the "frontlines of clean energy and climate resilience."

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 985,418 Reports(+1,625 from prior week) Through September 8th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.0 +6.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 81.0 +4.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +1.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 26.0 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.08%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.65%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.