Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -4.3% 2) Gold & Silver -4.0% 3) Alt Energy -3.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BN, BXSL, MDGL, HNRG, MMM, UTG, GOF, BEP, EURN, LAC, TCPC, CWEN/A, ARR, CCJ, NI, GME, SNDX, ARCH, NEE, K, NEP and VFS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ICLN 2) UEC 3) BE 4) XLV 5) NEP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SDC 2) NEP 3) DVN 4) SUI 5) MMM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +.6% 2) Software +.5% 3) Computer Services +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPHR, GPCR, FWONK, PETQ, RIOT, DFS, HOLI, CRDO, SMCI, SPR, VTRS, ZS, BAH and PODD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IEI 2) LQD 3) NEP 4) RKT 5) KSS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPHR 2) DFS 3) FEMY 4) DFS 5) GEO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MKC)/.65
  

After the Close: 

• (CALM)/.33
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Job Openings for Aug. is estimated to fall to 8808K versus 8827K in July.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicles Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 15.4M versus 15.04M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA interest rate decision, weekly US retail sales reports, (ASAN) investor day and the (TAP) strategy day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -3.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -3.5
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 26.8% of Issues Advancing, 70.7% Declining
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 182 New Lows
• 35.3%(-3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 29.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.9 +5.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,872.9 +1.98%
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.3 -28.5%
  
• Vix 17.2 -1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -7.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.23 +14.0%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Water Bills to Rise 35% By 2030 in England To Fund Investment.
• Autonomous Driving Remains a Distant Reality in Japan.
• US Stock Futures Gain After Spending Deal Reached: Markets Wrap.
• Congress Averts US Government Shutdown Hours Before Deadline.
• Biden Presses McCarthy to Deliver Ukraine Aid Omitted in Bill.
• Traders Win Reprieve After ‘Political Circus’ of Shutdown Fight.
• Aging Trees Show a Crisis Looms for the World’s Everything Oil.
• Macau Casinos Revenue Growth Slows Before Golden Week Holiday.
• Microsoft’s Nadella to Testify at Google Antitrust Trial Monday.
• Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Is Personal": McCarthy Hits Back After Gaetz Removal Threat.
• AOC Defends Lawmaker Who Pulled Fire Alarm To 'Open Door' And Totally Not Disrupt The Democratic Process.
• For Some, Open Border Chaos Is The Goal.
• Canada To Create Registry Of Podcasters In Potential Censorship Initiative . 
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 20th Busload Of Illegal Immigrants Arrives In Downtown Los Angeles.
• Trump Receives Cheers From CA Crowd After Arguing In Favor Of Shooting Looters.
• "Who Do Americans Think They Are?" Charles Nenner Warns "It's Over, They Can't Rule The World Anymore".
• "Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere": Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring.
• Over 277,000 'Vaccinated' COVID-19 Cases Hidden By CDC In 2021: Newly Obtained Files Show.
• "These Morons Are Pushing Us Towards WW3": Sunak Backtracks After UK Defense Chief Wants To Send British Troops To Ukraine.
• Trump Sues Christopher Steele Over Hoax Dossier.
• Smart Borrowing Has Made Mo "Path Of Least Resistance Is Higher": Hedge Fund Short Selling Ends As Stocks Are Bought For First Time In 4 Weeks: Goldman PB netary Policy "Laggier".
• Homes Are "Unaffordable" In 99% Of US Counties.
• RFK Jr. Could Make Announcement On Run As Independent On Oct. 9.
• Class-Action Lawsuit Filed Against Remdesivir Manufacturer Over Alleged Deceptive Practices.
• Slovakia May Stop Backing Ukraine War After Populist Election Win.
• Hunter Biden's Daughter Was Living In White House While Representing Peruvian Government.
• Russia's Military Budget Set To Rise By 70%.
• "More Deceit": Gaetz Rages Over McCarthy-Ukraine Side Deal To Pass Stopgap.
• Anthropology Session On Importance Of Biological Sex Canceled To Appease LGBT Advocates.
• US Dominates World University Rankings.
• A Climate Of Fear.
• 11 Assumptions About The Future.
• Is The US Military Laying The Groundwork To Reinstitute The Draft?
• Victor Davis Hanson Blasts "The Most Politicalized & Weaponized 4-Star Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Ever".
• What Is The Top Priority Or Number One Concern Of Most Americans?
• Satanic Pedophile Extortion Cult Uncovered By FBI After NY Arrest.
• TME Weekend: Some things are as neutral as they get.
• Time To End The Fed And Its Mismanagement Of Our Economy.
• Turley: Ten Reasons Why The Biden Impeachment Inquiry Is Justified. 
• GM, Ford CEOs Blast UAW Boss As Strikes Expand.
• 10 Numbers Which Prove That The US Economy Has Hit A Major Pivot Point. 
• COVID-19 Vaccine Found In The Hearts Of Dead People: Study.
• Parents, Teachers Start Winning Court Battles Against Secret Gender Transition Policies.

Wall Street Journal:

• The U.S. Military’s Weighty Challenge: ‘Skinny-Fat’ Recruits
• How ‘Preapproved Narratives’ Corrupt Science. Especially in climate and Covid research, abuse of peer review and self-censorship abound.
• New Interest-Rate Regime Rewrites Investing Playbook.
• PG&E’s $6 Billion Plan to Prevent Wildfires Is in Peril.
• Why Consumers Are Mad About Inflation Even as It Has Fallen.
• Does China’s Property Bust Make a Financial Crisis Inevitable?
• Children Are Dying in Ill-Prepared Emergency Rooms Across America.
• The Star Witness at Sam Bankman-Fried’s Trial: His Top Deputy and Ex-Girlfriend.
• Another Tesla Cybertruck Sales Launch Date Comes and Goes.
• Small Business Bankruptcies Rising at Worst Pace Since Pandemic.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (GD) and (SOFI).

CNBC:

• Biden signs 45-day funding bill to keep government open
• Amazon customers report false email confirmations for gift cards
• Bill Ackman would ‘absolutely’ do a deal with X with his new funding vehicle
• Big Food vs. Big Pharma: Companies bet on snacking just as weight loss drugs boom.
• Biden says there’s ‘not much time’ to keep aid flowing to Ukraine and Congress must ‘stop the games’.
• Student loan bills resume for 40 million Americans. How it could shake the economy.
• How much money you need to make to be in the top 1% in every U.S. state.
• JetBlue raises flight attendant pay, union agrees to support merger with Spirit.
• Is the party over? New data suggests revenge travel may be ending soon.

Reuters:

• South Korea Sept exports fall at mildest pace in 12 months.
• China new home prices tick up in Sept, ending four-month decline - survey.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stock-market history suggests a potential fourth-quarter rally. Why this year looks different.

NewsMax:

• Speaker McCarthy Says 'Bring It On' After Rep. Gaetz Vows Notice to Vacate.
• GOP Outraged Over Bowman Pulling House Fire Alarm.

Fox News:

• Liberal policies accused of causing innocent people to be ‘hunted like prey’.
• Iran regime official reportedly admits Tehran role in terror attack that killed 241 Americans.
• Americans aren't shying away from their stance towards the new COVID vaccine.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden’s America: Illegal Immigrant Gang Kidnaps Three Girls, Including 11-Year-Old, in Northern Minnesota and Rapes and Tortures Them – Not Making Headlines.
• Breaking: Smer Party Wins Slovakian Elections – Russia-Friendly Robert Fico to Be Next PM – NATO Country Now Expected to Curtail Ukraine Assistance.
• NaziGate: Former SS Fighter Yaroslav Hunka’s Family Is in Hiding, Following Controversy Over His Honoring by Canadian Parliament. 
• House RINOs Reportedly Looking to Expel Matt Gaetz Based on the Findings from the Ongoing Ethics Committee Investigation: “We Want Him Out”. 
• The Border “Is Too Open”: Democrat New York Governor Kathy Hochul Becomes Immigration Hawk; Calls for Limiting Number of Migrants and “Doubling or Quadrupling” Border Patrol Agents. 
• Pope Francis Chooses 21 New Cardinals – Globalist Leader of Catholics Wants His Successor to Keep Church in the Controversial ‘Progressive’ Path He Chose.
• Michigan High School Student Faces Felony Charges After Throwing Metal Chair at Teacher (VIDEO).
• McCarthy Says He Doesn’t Want to Part of Republican Team After Passing Continuing Resolution.
• Justin Trudeau Moves to Regulate Podcasts and to Analyze and Track Content and Subscribers.
• Biden Lashes Out After People Begin Doubting COVID Shots.
• Dr. Scott Atlas: Politicians and Doctors Still Pushing COVID-19 Vaccines Are a Complete Disgrace (VIDEO).
• 75,000 Healthcare Workers Set to Go on Strike – Biggest Healthcare Strike In U.S. History.
• Greg Gutfeld Dings FOX and RNC for Including Univision in GOP Debate: ‘Worst Partnership Since Bud Light Hired Dylan Mulvaney’ (VIDEO).
• “Our Voters Deserve to Know Who is Selling Them Out” – Donald Trump Jr. Calls Out and Exposes “Senate RINOs” for Pushing Billions More in Ukraine Funding.
• Senate Votes 88-9 to Avert Shutdown, Only 9 Republican Senators Vote Against Stop-Gap Spending Bill that Funds All of Democrat Policies to Destroy America.
• Tennessee Will Airdrop Vaccines from Helicopters and Small Planes to Combat Spread of Rabies.
• The Definition of Gaslighting: Old Joe Biden Lays Out Democrat’s Tyrannical Plan for America – Then Blames It on Republicans and Calls MAGA the Greatest Threat to Our Nation (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Wuhan Institute of Virology's 'Batwoman' Shi Zhengli Says Another COVID-19 Outbreak 'Highly Likely’.
• Japanese Companies Are Leaving China to De-risk.
• Communist China's Orwellian 'Global Community With a Shared Future'.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 986,103 Reports(+2,130 from prior week) Through September 15th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 82.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.0 +5.8%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 +3.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 -2.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.
• S&P 500 futures +.54%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.71%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,338.1 -.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,507.5 -1.3%

• NASDAQ 13,219.32 +.06%

• Russell 2000 1,785.10 +.48%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,369.9 +.49% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 32.07 +1.89%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 139.05 +2.1%

• Wilshire 5000 42,788.59 -.54%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,678.44 -.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,497.60 -.97%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 727.36 -2.1%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,220.4 +1.08%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,600.92 +.89%

• Transports 14,968.77 -.13%

• Utilities 816.55 -6.3%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 87.04 +.54%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.12 -.79%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 191.67 +.04%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.65 -.13%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 455,679 -.48%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 +4.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -585 +350
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -37.7 -5.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 328,426 +.48%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,692,990 -5.5%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -13.9%

• OEX Put/Call 1.16 -12.8%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 +6.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.21 +7.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.6 -.83%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -23.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -73.0 -79.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.30% +51.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 26.7 -.42%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.1 +4.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.6 +4.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,764.4 -3.0%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  43.0 -14.3
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.644 Trillion +.11%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$10.119 Million

• AAII % Bulls 27.8 -11.2%

• AAII % Bears 40.9 +18.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 287.06 +.37%

• Crude Oil 90.57/bbl. +1.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 243.57 -4.5%

• Natural Gas 2.96 +11.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.9 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
  

• Heating Oil 336.5 +1.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 161.3 (1,000/metric ton) +1.9%
  

• Gold 1,847.9 -3.9%
• Silver 22.15 -5.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 414.57 +.46%

• Copper 372.85 +1.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.6 USD/Metric Tonne +3.9%

• CME Lumber  502.0 +4.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,550.95 -1.8%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.5 USD/Short Ton +3.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +4.92% +6.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.4% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.86 -11.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 106.5 +97.3%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +1.5% -8.0 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.50 -.05:  Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 18.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 263.91 +n/a: Growth Rate +59.2% +n/a, P/E 27.8 -.1
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.1 -9.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.0 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 +.3 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 82.7%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 17.3%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  

• US Dollar Index 106.19 +.55%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,665.31 -.53%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,838.2 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.95 +.02%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -48.5 +19.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +13.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.966 Trillion -.27% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.250 Billion +2.1%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.57 -3.2%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 204.54 +2.98%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 +8.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.1 +1.98%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.3 +3.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 186.11 +1.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.57 +14.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.66 +1.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.9%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 77.41 -6.4%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.9% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.3% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% -22.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% -3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.5 +2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.5 -24.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.3 +.99%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 185.0 +.34% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342.0 +24.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 91.34 +3.7%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 302.57 +3.1%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 224.78 +5.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 907.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,194.9 +.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,000 -2.9%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.4 +.18%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.77% +2.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 189,600 -1.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% +2.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $107.2M -22.1%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.83/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,716.0 +7.7%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 851.96 -2.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 40.6 -6.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 258,419 +5.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,594,802 +25.7%
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Leading Sectors

• Retail +2.4%

• Regional Banks +2.2%
• Semis +1.8%
  

• Energy +1.7%
  

• Video Gaming +1.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Insurance -2.1%
  

• REITS -2.1%
  

• Computer Services -3.7%

• Gold & Silver -6.6%
  

• Utilities -6.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• GPCR, NKE, CCCS, WBA, DUOL, KSS, PLNT, EAT, BMBL and TRMB
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• BEPC, NEP, MDGL, NAPA, MTN, CCL, SNDX and CORT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change