Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Close on Falling Fed Rate-Hike Odds, US Debt Flight to Safety Hopes, More Massive US Deficit Spending Expectations, Energy/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.15% +35.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.7 -1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.0 -.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.86 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.9 -2.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.20 +56.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.29 -.92%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.98 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 380 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.54 +1.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 330.0 +.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 206.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.8 -.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.9 +.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 93.10 +57.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.69 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.5 -6.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 82.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.51% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.6 USD/Metric Tonne  -1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.9 euros/megawatt-hour +15.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.3 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.4 +2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.0 -2.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +3.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.11 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 17.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.19% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.69 +.36: Growth Rate +60.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.6 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .7 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.10 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -28.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% -1.0 basis point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 74.9%(+17.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 69.1%(+12.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Airlines -3.0% 3) Disk Drives -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DDOG, HRL, MKC, NICE, INMD, MNDY, DAL, AAL, NUVL, MRTX, CAMT, MBLY, SEDG, TSEM, UAL, ALNY, AEHR, PERI, NEP and XPEV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RILY 2) MDLZ 3) VFC 4) PACW 5) RF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EVA 2) CCL 3) LEVI 4) DDOG 5) LESL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.0% 2) Defense +3.9% 3) Energy +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NOC, WW, LHX, GD, HII, KTOS, LMT, HASI, CNQ, OKTA, VET, MEOH, HNRG, DRS, RTX, ZS, IMO, PLTR, AVAV, DUOL, OXY, CAG, TS, XOM, PBR/A and FRO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LMT 2) SHEL 3) XLC 4) CTRA 5) PXD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRZO 2) PTEN 3) LMT 4) GD 5) ZS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NEOG)/.03
• (PEP)/2.15
  

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/1.08
  

Economic Releases  

6:00 am EST:

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 91.0 versus 91.3 in Aug.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in July.
  

11:00 am EST

• NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations report.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, China CPI report, 3Y T-note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Maxim Tech Conference, (HPQ) analyst meeting and the (ADBE) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -16.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 +.3
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 51.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.7% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 33.9%(-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 +8.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.8 -3.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,992.1 -.87%
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.5 -18.9%
  
• Vix 18.8 +7.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -5.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +48.7%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Israelis Taken Hostage Were Ripped From Everyday Activities.
• Israel Latest: Over 1,100 Dead; US Sends Warships to Region. 
• Attack on Israel Is Calculated and Ruthless — And That’s Hamas.
• Hamas Attack Prompts Blame Around Israeli Intelligence.
• US Sends Warships, Aid in Show of Force as Israel Strikes Back. 
• China Markets Face Choppy Return From Holidays as Risks Abound.
• China’s Rich Entrust Total Strangers to Sneak Cash Out of the Country.
• Stocks Sink Across Mideast as Israel Goes to War With Hamas. 
• Global Markets Face New Geopolitical Risk, View Oil as Guide.
• Oil Soars as Hamas’ Attack on Israel Fans Middle East Tensions.
• Air Travel Is Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels With New Turbulence Ahead.
• Wall Street Is Worried the Bear Market Has ‘Unfinished Business’.
• House GOP Sees Speaker Vote on Track as Israel Adds to Urgency.
• Gen Z Will Carry the Deepest Psychological Scars From Inflation. 
• Profit Warnings to Hit S&P 500 as High Rates Pinch Consumers.

Zero Hedge:

• Iran Helped Hamas "Plot Israel Attack Over Several Weeks", Gave Green Light, WSJ Reports
• "Oil Could Spike Well North Of $150": Here Are The Main Implications For Oil From The Israeli War
• Rubin And Tribe Under Fire For Using The Massacre In Israel For Bizarre Attacks On Political Figures.
• "This Is Unacceptable": Blue States Blast Biden Over Border Blunders As Backlash Intensifies.
• Strike To Start At 4 Prime Healthcare California Hospitals.
• "Sellers Exhausted, HF Short Covering Begins": Goldman Prime's Top Weekly Report Of What Traders Are Doing.
• As "Most Important Election Of Our Lives" Looms, Trump Blasts "Weak & Ineffective" Biden For Hamas Attack On Israel.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Dollarization Puts Foreign Economies At The Mercy Of The US Regime.
• Most Americans Oppose Corporate Political And Social Campaigns; New Poll Finds.
• Schumer Meets Shanghai Party Chief In Bipartisan Senate Trip To China.
• Israelis Question "Catastrophic" Intelligence Failure.
• WEF: Somebody Has To Be In Charge Of Rationing Freedom.
• Spiraling Toward A "Debt Crisis"?
• The Bottomless Swamp Of Regulatory Capture.
• Corporate Coverup? Whistleblower Doctor Alleges Shire Pharmaceuticals Neglected ADHD Drug Monitoring . 
• Germany: Fresh Call To Ban AfD Comes From CDU Politician.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Top Stock Funds Over the Past Year Had One Thing in Common: Nvidia.
• Wall Street Isn’t Sure It Can Handle All of Washington’s Bonds.
• Big-Company Bankruptcies Hang Over Economy.
• Earthquakes Kill More Than 2,400 in Afghanistan.
• Meatpacking Plant Closures Cut Deep for Small-Town Economies.

CNBC:

• Germany’s conservatives set to win state elections with far-right making gains.
• ‘Knee-jerk surge’: Oil experts predict market impact of Israel-Hamas conflict.

Reuters:

• Middle East conflict adds new risks to global economic outlook.

MarketWatch.com:

• Bristol Myers Squibb to buy Mirati Therapeutics in deal worth up to $5.8 billion.
• ‘Fear trade’: What Israel-Hamas war means for oil prices and financial markets.
• Egyptian police officer opens fire on tourists, killing 3, including 2 Israelis.
• Q3 earnings are here: S&P 500 heads toward a year of profit declines as JPMorgan, and Delta report this week.

NewsMax:

• Intelligence Failed to Predict Hamas Attacks Years in Works.
• Sen. Ted Cruz: State Dept. Warning Israel 'Disgraceful'.

Fox News:

• Hamas, Hezbollah say Iran helped plan deadly attack on Israel: report.
• Terrorists holding dozens of Israeli-Americans hostage.
• Passengers are gambling with their lives flying on major US airline planes: lawsuit.
• Massive gun manufacturer ditches liberal Massachusetts, moves HQ to the South.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: Death Toll from Hamas Terrorist Attack Rises to Over 700 – At Least 260 Young People Were Slaughtered at Dance Party in Desert. 
• Sunday in NYC: Democratic Socialists of America – The Party of Ilhan Omar, Cori Bush, Rashida Tlaib, AOC and Jamaal Bowman – Hold Pro-Palestinian Rally After Historic Hamas Mass Murders. 
• DEVELOPING: Several Americans Reportedly Slaughtered and Abducted by Hamas Terrorists in Israel According to Antony Blinken (VIDEO) UPDATE: DOZENS of American Hostages Being Held by Hamas Says Israeli Ambassador.
• HEARTBREAKING: Father of Terrified Israeli Girl Noa Who Was Kidnapped and Pictured on Back of Motorbike Cries in Pain as He Speaks to Media.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei Posts Video of Terrified Israeli Partygoers Running from Hamas Killers in Desert – Cheers the Annihilation of Israel.
• Democrat Rep. Rashida Tlaib Breaks Silence on Saturday’s Hamas Mass Murder of 600 Jews – Blames Israel for the Violence, Accuses Israel of Apartheid Policies.
• US Moving Carrier Group to Eastern Mediterranean Sea in Response to Hamas Attack on Israel.
• HORROR! New Video Shows SHOCKING HAMAS ATTACK on Peace Concert at Kibbutz Urim — Partygoers Run for Their Lives As Hamas Flies in on Paragliders, Opens Fire – Several Hostages Taken (VIDEOS).
• Code Pink Endorses Hamas Attacks on Israel; “Anti-War” Groups Announce Pro-Hamas Rallies in US. 
• Biden NSC Spox Goes Into Damage Control, Claims $6 Billion in Funds Joe Biden Sent to Iran Have “Absolutely Nothing to do With” Hamas Attacks Against Israel.
• Woman Whose Lifeless Body Was Seen in Back of Truck Identified as German Citizen Shani Louk – She Was Attending Peace Concert Near Gaza Border When Murdered by Hamas (GRAPHIC VIDEO).
• Hezbollah Fires Rockets into Israeli-Contested Areas in ‘Solidarity’ with Palestinians, Threatens Escalation if Israel and U.S. Will Not Stop Its “Foolishness” (VIDEO).
• WATCH: 2022 Video of Budget Director Shalanda Young Claiming Joe Biden Used $1.9 Billion Border Wall Funds For “Community Consultation” Resurfaces.
• Israel Releases Names and Photos of the Dozens of Beautiful Young Women Who Are Missing Following Saturday’s Hamas Attack.
• Hamas Brags and Posts Photo of the Paragliders They Used to Breach Israeli Border and Murder and Kidnap Innocent Kids at Rave Party.
• “Brings to Mind Reeducation Camps” – RFK Jr. Blasts Hillary Clinton’s Call For “Formal Deprogramming” of Trump Supporters.
• Watch the Greg Gutfeld Monologue About Crime That’s Causing the Left to Freak Out (VIDEO).
• Joe Rogan Says Woke California Schools Tried to Turn His 5 Year-Old Child Into a Left Wing Political Activist (VIDEO).
• Taliban Releases Statement Following the Israel-Hamas War — Urges Islamic Nations and International Community to Act Against Israel.
• Carjackings in Washington, DC Have Spiked 111 Percent in the First Ten Months of 2023.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP May Resort to Covert Warfare to Take Taiwan: Experts Warn.
• China's Economy Is 'Running out of Road': Report.

Twitter:

• @LauraLoomer - HAMAS literally paraglided into a rave in Israel today where they slaughtered people who were just dancing with their friends. Imagine dancing & then seeing terrorists paragliding toward you with military grade weapons. (video)
• @Tr00peRR - More footage of the Hamas fighters infiltrating Israel using paragliders. (video)
• @OliLondonTV - Viewer discretion advised. Child: “Daddy why are your hands full of blood.” “My sister, my sister, my sister died” Young Israeli boy reacts after Hamas militants who took his family hostage executed one of his sisters. (video)
• @MrAndyNgo - Hamas released a video showing their political leadership praying to thank their god for the successful deadly attack on Israeli civilians, police and military. (video)
• @salammohammadk2 - Happening Now in Turkey, huge demonstration by Turkey supporting Hamas operation. (video)
• @TPostMillennial - Don’t allow mainstream media to whitewash the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. This is what Hamas has done to innocent civilians. (video)
• @DonaldJTrumpJr - How is it possible that I’ve seen more videos out of this war in Israel in a few hours than I have from Ukraine in almost 2 years???
• @GenFlynn - @VDHanson and I did not coordinate our positions today but we run in similar veins of thought: Is there not a pattern developing here?
• @JamesOKeefeIII -  JUST IN: I received a cease and desist from Protect Democracy's lawyers. For the sake of full transparency, I'm sharing it with you.
• @Travis_in_Flint -  #Breaking News: Iowa has caved to the DNC and will switch a process that has been in place for over 50 years. Instead of being the first vote in the nation, Iowa will now have a months long mail in vote process. Even more shocking, this rule only applies for 2024 and will switch back for the 2028 election! It looks like the sElection season is beginning!
• @Wideawake_media - Dutch political commentator, Eva Vlaardingerbroek, on the communist nature of the globalist war on farmers being waged around the globe, under the banner of UN Agenda 2030: (video)
• @michaeljohns - How much do you know about the police stations that China's Communist Party brazenly operates inside the U.S.? (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.25 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 87.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.1 +.2%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +4.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.31%.
• S&P 500 futures -.70%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.