Stocks Closing at Session Lows on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.7 +2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .98% -15.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.9 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.0 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.7 +5.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +5.1%

• NYSE Arms .77 -28.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.57 +2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.5 +2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 354 -18
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.71 +2.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 306.9 +1.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.3 +3.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 242.8 +.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.8 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.13%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 16.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 185.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% -3.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.17 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.3 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.7 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +1.9% -4.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.35 -.30:  Growth Rate +9.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.12% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9%
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.66 +.14: Growth Rate +57.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.11 -11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.92 -79.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -18.25 basis points (2s/10s) +13.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +7.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 75.2%(+14.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 62.7%(+10.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -3.4% 2) Disk Drives -2.2% 3) Biotech -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHYF, AA, ARR, HP, AMAT, CAMT, ALB, REXR, LRCX, CCI, BIDU, EH, FUTU, EXLS, ZION, GOOS, ACMR, ENOV, MMYT, IRDM, DFS, VERV, VMW, TSLA, ROL, BEAM, GPC, WNR and SMTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DM 2) OZK 3) HCP 4) PTEN 5) KEY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DFS 2) ORGN 3) LRCX 4) PCT 5) NSSC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks +1.9% 2) Airlines +1.1% 3) Restaurants +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PTCT, NFLX, SAVA, SUM, LBRT, T, RARE, RGEN, SPR, CVBF, KEY, LVS, EFX, UNP and AAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) QD 2) AEO 3) SMTC 4) DVA 5) LRCX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NFLX 2) MDAI 3) T 4) SUM 5) PODC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXP)/2.95
• (ALV)/1.79
• (CMA)/1.69
• (IPG)/.73
• (RF)/.58
• (SLB)/.77
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

9:00 am EST:

• Bloomberg Oct. US Economic Survey.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (MLI) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The PBOC rate decision could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 -.2
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 30.5% of Issues Advancing, 66.7% Declining
• 10 New 52-Week Highs, 202 New Lows
• 31.9%(-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 -4
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 -1.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,009.6 +.12%
  
• 1-Day Vix 16.2 -8.3%
  
• Vix 19.7 +2.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -2.0%
• TRIN/Arms .75 -30.6%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Biden’s Israel Trip Fails to Calm Fears of Wider Conflict.
• Israel Latest: UK Prime Minister Sunak Is About to Begin Visit. 
• How Iran’s Role Risks Widening the Israel-Hamas War.
• Biden Says Egypt Will Allow Up To 20 Aid Shipments Into Gaza.
• Why China-Russia Ties Worry America.
• Emerging Markets Under Heavy Pressure as Conflict Escalates.
• Japan Exports Rise First Time in Three Months, Aiding Recovery.
• Ringgit Falls to 25-Year Low on Dollar Gains, Widening Rate Gap.
• Asian Stocks to Slip, Australia Bonds Join Selloff: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Holds Gain After Iran Calls for Crude Embargo Against Israel.
• Tesla Tempers Expectations on Cybertruck’s Nov. 30 Debut.
• OpenAI Is in Talks to Sell Shares at an $86 Billion Valuation.
• Wall Street Concerns Over Swelling US Debt Put Fed in Tight Spot.
• Bezos-Backed Startup Convoy Prepares for Sale, Slashes Jobs.
• Lam Slides After Revenue Declines for Third Straight Quarter.
• Zions Shares Decline as Deposit, Borrowing Costs Soar Tenfold.
• Amazon Tests Humanoid Robot in Warehouse Automation Push.
• California Has an Electric Big Rig Mandate. Manufacturers Will Struggle to Meet It.

Zero Hedge:

• Insurrection? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Occupy Capitol Building.
• US Vetoes UN Resolution For Gaza Ceasefire As Biden Visit Fails To Calm Fears Of Wider War.
• HSBC Restricts Employee Texting On Work Phones As Private Messaging Probe Escalates.
• FDA Finds 'Signal' For Seizures Among COVID-19 Vaccinated Toddlers.
• Putin, Xi In Beijing Pitch For 'Alternative World Order' As Biden Departs A Burning Middle East.
• Our Public Schools Are A National Disaster.
• These Are America's 10 Most Dangerous Cities.
• Top Republican Threatens To Subpoena DHS Secretary If Friday Deadline Missed.
• Photos Of Hamas Hostages Torn Down At NYU.
• US stocks declined amid earnings releases and geopolitical risks - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Troops In Iraq Under Fresh Drone Attacks After Iran Said "Time Is Up".
• 'Back To The Future' Morphs Into Dystopia.
• Bonds' Parabolic Panic.
• Sperry: Leaker Of Trump Taxes Worked For Biden Beltway Donor That Just Won Big New IRS Contract. 
• Will The Resumption Of "Hate-Selling" In Bonds Shift Economy Into "Hard Landing" Contraction; Nomura.
• Biden Admin Drafts $100 Billion Ukraine-Israel Foreign Aid Package.
• Haven demand favours Buck and Gold as stocks and bonds dip - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Stocks Purged As Bullion & Bond Yields Surge On Biden, Beijing, & Banks.

Wall Street Journal:

• Netflix to Raise Prices as Password Crackdown Boosts Subscriber Growth.
• Map Shows Labyrinth of Tunnels Made by Hamas Under Gaza Identified by Israel.
• Biden Says Egypt Will Open Border Crossing for Gaza Aid.
• Gaza Hospital Blast Reverberates Across Muslim World.
• Ten-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Closer to 5%.
• Come in Three Days or Just Quit: Some Companies Give Remote Workers an Ultimatum.
• Dostoevsky Knew: It Can Happen Here. Some people who cheer Hamas’s atrocities would surely be capable of committing similar acts if given an opportunity.
• Health Inflation’s Big Hike This Year.
• China Economy Faces Deepening Troubles in Years Ahead.
• U.S. Lifts Broad Sanctions Against Venezuela for Six Months.

CNBC.com:

• Costco CEO Craig Jelinek to step down Jan. 1. COO Ron Vachris will take over.
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk sounds pessimistic note about economy on earnings call
• Netflix flips the streaming script again with a return to growth mode
• Disney gives investors a look at ESPN’s financials, including recent revenue declines
• Google cuts dozens of jobs in news division
• Pfizer to price Covid drug Paxlovid at $1,390 per course
• Fed Chair Powell to deliver key speech Thursday. Here’s what to expect
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Netflix, Tesla, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands and more

MarketWatch.com:

• Rite Aid is closing these 154 stores as part of its bankruptcy
• Tesla earnings miss the mark, stock gains evaporate as Elon Musk tempers Cybertruck expectations
• Forget stocks! Gold enjoys a moment over the past year as it hurtles toward $2,000.
• Wall Street warns of ‘Black Monday’ repeat just in time for 36th anniversary

Newsmax:

• IDF Releases Audio of Hamas Admitting Hospital Strike.
• DeSantis Endorses Jordan for Speaker, Rips Chaos.

 Fox News:

• Biden addresses Israel's response to US pledging aid to Gaza, West Bank.
• Top law firm yanks job offers from Ivy League students over anti-Israel letters.
• 'Squad' Rep. Tlaib ignores US intel about Gaza hospital, sides with Hamas over Biden admin.
• SEE PICS: Prostitutes wander popular California city in broad daylight after law takes effect.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• INSURRECTION! Screaming Far Left Protesters Storm Capitol, Shut Down Rotunda – Demand Israeli Ceasefire in Gaza (Video). Pelosi Launches Vicious Attack on Jim Jordan, Calls Speaker Vote an “Assault on Democracy” (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Israeli Surveillance Drone Video of the Fully Intact and Undamaged Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza after Rocket Hits Parking Lot – NOT the Hospital.
• BREAKING: Jordan LOSES Second Bid to Become Speaker – Here are the 22 Turncoat RINOS Who Voted Against Him and Defied We the People.
• Victor Reacts: Trump Supporter JAILED For Memes!
• Karine Jean-Pierre Cuts Off Reporter After Biden Gets Snarky, Struggles to Answer Questions About American Hostages (VIDEO).
• INSURRECTION UPDATE: Far-Left Protesters Storm US Capitol and RIP DOWN Pro-Israel Sign Outside GOP Rep’s Office – Arrests Made.
• VIDEO: Radical Ted Cruz Senate Challenger Colin Allred Angrily Threatens to Have Journalist Arrested for Asking Tough Questions About His Record Including on Hamas and for Lawfully Filming Him.
• RINOs Ask For Third Vote on Speaker “Immediately” in Effort to Stop Jim Jordan From Shoring Up Support.
• Another One: UPenn Donor “Deeply Embarrassed” by University Over Pro-Hamas Support but Apparently Not Over a 6’1 Male Beating Women.
• BREAKING: BIDENOMICS: 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Hit 8% For First Time Since 2000.
• Vigilant Fox :Trump Unleashes on ‘Corrupt’ World Health Organization in Viral Truth Social Video.
• WORLD WAR III WATCH: Terrorist Group Hezbollah Calls for “Day of Unprecedented Anger” Against Israel amid Biden’s Visit.
• Biden’s Border ‘Security’ Takes Aim at Christians.

The Epoch Times:

• CSIS Chief Joins Five Eyes' Warning of Beijing's Threats to Universities, IP Theft.
• Putin Hails Deepened Ties With China as Xi Outlines His Vision for New World Order.

Twitter:

• @EndWokeness - The hospital wasn’t hit. It was a parking lot. How is this not the top story right now?
• @AlertChannel - NBC News Richard Engel in Israel: "Real and growing concerns tonight that this is headed toward a regional war".
• @rawsalerts - #BREAKING: Large group of anti-israel protesters have taken over inside US Capitol rotunda. (video)
• @OliLondonTV - Breaking: Palestinian supporters take part in an insurrection by storming the Capital building in Washington D.C. (video)
• @kylenabecker - Two legacy media outlets — The NY Times and BBC — and two Democrat media darlings — Rep. Ilhan Omar and Rep. Rashida Tlaib — are all guilty of spreading terrorist 'disinformation.' I don't want to hear from such people that they need to censor the Internet ever again. (pic)
• @JackPosobiec - A meme is a modern-day political cartoon. The US govt just threw a guy in jail for a political cartoon. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - DOJ WANTS JAN 6er MOTHER OF 8 TO RECEIVE 8 YEARS IN PRISON. (pic) BIDEN’S DOJ IS UNHAPPY WITH 10-22 YEAR SENTENCES FOR 5 JAN 6ers AND WILL APPEAL THE DECISION TO INCREASE THEM TO 20-33 YEARS.
• @theinformantofc - #London: #SadiqKhan signs up Londoners to the ‘planetary health diet’ by 2030. A Balanced and nutritional diet, with meat reduced to #WorldWarII levels of 44g per day.
• @Breaking911 - Journalism 2023. NY Times. (pic)
• @songpinganq - China is integrating Central Bank Digital Currency into its Social Credit System. To shop at China's unmanned grocery stores, you'll now need a minimum Social Credit Score of 550. Thanks to Alipay and WeChat, two Chinese digital wallets, for making it happen! (video)
• @John_Rossomando - The FBI under Bob Mueller and Barack Obama dismantled the Muslim Brotherhood unit that kept tabs on Hamas's extensive network inside the US due to George Soros's web of NGOs. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 987,217 Reports(+1,799 from prior week) Through September 22nd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.75 +5.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 83.5 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.09 -.04%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.9 +2.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.06 -7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.