Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Declining Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Escalating Mid-East Regional War Concerns, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 +3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59% -20.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.3 -5.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.4 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.15 -.12%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.4 +6.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +8.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +11.8%

• NYSE Arms .91 +13.8% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$219.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.7 +2.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 358.05 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 250 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.4 +5.7% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 220.0 +3.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.24 +6.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 182.2 +3.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 111.92 +.39%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 966.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.32 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 141.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.80 euros/megawatt-hour +7.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .4 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.0 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.42 +.06:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 19.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 289.62 +.07: Growth Rate +35.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.1 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .44 -30.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.03% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.8% -1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 68.1%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 60.6%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -249 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +159 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -3.1% 2) Alt Energy -3.0% 3) AI/Robotics -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LSPD, CUZ, UBS, RTO, SEMR, WD, SATS, BLBD, CCL, CUK, RYAAY, BRBR, APG, RKT, MSTR, LBPH, GCT, XPOF, INSP, LTHM, AEHR, XRX, HLIT and FLEX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UBS 2) HUN 3) IOVA 4) BE 5) AAL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOFI 2) SCYX 3) TMNA 4) PAYC 5) AMC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.8% 2) Pharma +1.3% 3) Oil Service +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SIDU, VYGR, DYN, AGIO, COLL, ARWR, PSTG, CORT and PGTI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DISH 2) ARQT 3) MSOS 4) PSTG 5) UBS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SASI 2) DYN 3) UTZ 4) PSTG 5) CELU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CAG)/.68
• (LW)/1.42
• (LNN)/1.27
• (RPM)/1.23
• (SMPL)/.40
• (WBA)/.63
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Dec.
  

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for Dec. is estimated to rise to +121K versus +103K in Nov.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 216K versus 218K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1881K versus 1875K prior.

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US PMI reports for Dec.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,406,000 barrels versus a -7,114,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -194,000 barrels versus a -669,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -112,000 barrels versus a +741,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.32% versus a +.9% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Balance Sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Energy/Clean Tech/Utilities Conference and the Goldman C-Suite Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.0 -.8
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 24.1% of Issues Advancing, 73.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 +16.3% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$208.4M
  
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 64.3%(-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.0 -8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.5 +.03%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.9 -.86%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,067.4 +.31%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.8 -6.9%
  
• Vix 13.8 +4.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.10 +18.3%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

X:

• @WallStreetSilv - These are the words of Andrew Jackson when he vetoed the Bank of the United States (first version of the Fed, our central bank): … "Is there no danger to our liberty and independence in a bank that, in its nature, has so little to bind it to our country?" "Should its influence become concentrated in the hands of a self-elected directory whose interests are identified with those of the foreign stockholders?" "Their power would be great whenever they might choose to exert it" "They might put forth their strength to influence elections". (video) "Is Nancy Pelosi a stock-picking genius?" "No, she has to be operating on information that's not public". "Joe Biden, I think, is great at laundering money". "We're living in an alternative universe right now where people on the left can almost operate with impunity" "It's inconceivable that someone could have that high return when everyone else can't do it". (video) Europe is importing millions of military age men who think this is normal. They honestly believe there is nothing wrong with what they are doing to the women of Europe. Why does Europe continue to do this? (video) Germany's population replacement strategy is proceeding on schedule as planned. (video)
  
• @RahamimoffTamar - @MichalGreenspan spells it out for those who have yet to realize the implications of failing to condemn the widespread rapes and sexual assaults of Israeli women and girls on #Oct7. Rape apologists or antisemites- which one is it?
• @FatEmperor - Covid was an utter scam, and anyone who still believes otherwise is a propagandized moron. Explained simply in 4 minutes flat: (video)
• @TheChiefNerd - Whitney Webb on Why Intel Agencies Are Running ‘Election Simulations’ . “They basically conducted these simulations of what types of hacks and events could trigger the cancellation of a U.S. Presidential Election…It’s very likely there’s going to be some sort of cyber 9/11 style event next year [2024] and that’s unsettling.” (video)
  
• @wideawake_media - "For god's sake, stop complying. Start rebelling. They are out to get you if you do not resist." German MEP, Christine Anderson: The so-called "pandemic" was a beta test—conducted by unelected globalists—to see how easy it would be to seize totalitarian control, under the pretext of a global "emergency". "The goal, ultimately, is to transform our free and democratic societies into totalitarian societies. (video) Author of 'The Great Reset', Marc Morano, on Klaus Schwab's recent B20 speech: "He's talking about us essentially giving up national sovereignty, giving up individual freedoms, and turning over rule to experts... This whole agenda is to make it so we have no choice on some of the biggest questions of our lives." (video) Fox News guest PERFECTLY summarises the World Economic Forum's 'Great Reset' agenda, in just one minute: "They want to create feudalism 2.0, in which we are serfs, and they are the lords ruling over us… That's what they're aiming for." (video)
• @songpinganq - JUST IN -- Beijing is turning quarantine camps in the city into cheap rental houses. The monthly rent for one isolation pod is 1,200 yuan (US＄167). (video) Now, in China's Xiamen city, authority only allows people with a 584 or higher social credit score to seek medical treatment in hospitals, without a huge deposit in advance. (video)
• @Outkick - UPDATE: the @NBA has no comment on one of its broadcasters, @MarkJonesESPN, calling conservative women "skanks." Nor would the NBA say those comments do not represent the league.
• @Fxhedgers - CALIFORNIA TO OFFER 700,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS FREE HEALTHCARE AS DEFICIT SOARS AND POPULATION SHRINKS (Fox Business).
• @YaariCohen - Important - Mia Shem’s full interview to @channel13il. Worth every minute of your day, listen to her story. (video)
• @CitizenFreePress - Bill Clinton to be unmasked as ‘Doe 36’ and identified more than 50 times in Jeffrey Epstein doc dump. FIFTY TIMES. A former US President. The American government is beyond controlled and it always has been.
• @nypost - DOJ accused of covering for ‘deep state’ by not holding second SBF trial on illegal political donations: ‘Disgrace’.
• @AvivaKlompas - Of the 1,200 people murdered by Hamas on Oct 7: 800 were civilians 37 under the age of 17 6 under the age of 5 25 people over the age of 80 The oldest victim was a 94-year-old woman This is the "resistance" that people celebrate and support.
• @matttttt187 - 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟. 𝐀𝐫𝐧𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐭 𝐬𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐲. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐛𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐥𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐯𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. (video)
• @Libsoftiktok - Buckle up for extreme censorship from big tech heading into the elections. They think we’re stupid. Thanks again @elonmusk for giving us a free speech platform!

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 997,917 Reports(+9,212 from prior week) Through November 3rd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 +3.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.0 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 143.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.4 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.4 -.2%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.2 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.