Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Presidential Election Credibility Worries, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +6.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 +57.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.9 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.80 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 +.29%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -.76% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 -2.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +32.1%

• NYSE Arms .79 -50.9% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$103.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.78 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.86 +.73%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 315 -17
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.5 -1.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.0 -4.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.2 -.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.75 +.23%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.4 -7.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.59 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 839.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.4 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.7 euros/megawatt-hour -5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.3 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(335 of 500 reporting) +5.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.36 +.21:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.27% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 304.40 +1.02: Growth Rate +42.7% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .91 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 58.9% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.94% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 52.1%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 43.5%(unch.) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +557 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -1.0% 2) Road & Rail -1.0% 3) Cyber Security -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PINS, FROG, CYBR, GTLB, EMBC and MNDY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MAT 2) EXPE 3) TEVA 4) AVTR 5) DT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RIVN 2) MNDY 3) BIG 4) IVVD 5) BIVI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.4% 2) Regional Banks +2.8% 3) Networking +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CBAY, ARM, IGMS, AMSC, VFC, VIAV, BEAM, CLSK, MARA, MDGL, SBGI, GOOS, FANG, NTGR, MSTR, AI, RIOT, TEVA, OI, FVRR, GCT, NOVA, HPK, UPST, ENPH, MHK, VERV, SNAP, PCTY, IONQ, ABNB, YETI, SBOW, DOCS, SAH, PR, CMRE, SAH, AAOI, CENTA, TWST, HELE, TRMB, TOL, ACMR, EXPE, FSLY, ZI, TTD, FSLR, TOST, PETQ, CPNG, MC, GOLF, ASPN, BHF, HOOD and GNRC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LSCC 2) TEVA 3) MAT 4) FROG 5) EXPE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TTOO 2) VFC 3) VIAV 4) SOL 5) CASS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AN)/4.89
• (BIIB)/3.18
• (KO)/.49
• (DDOG)/.43
• (HAS)/.66
• (HE)/.49
• (HRI)/3.46
• (DNUT)/.13
• (MAR)/2.12
• (TAP)/1.12
• (MCO)/2.33
• (ZTS)/1.32
  

After the Close: 

• (ABNB)/.65
• (AKAM)/1.60
• (AIG)/1.64
• (DVA)/1.63
• (IAC)/-.18
• (CART)/-.07
• (LYFT)/.08
• (MGM)/.71
• (PAAS)/.11
• (QDEL)/2.04
• (HOOD)/-.01
• (UPST)/-.11
• (ZG)/.11
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 92.1 versus 91.9 in Dec.
  

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, (FICO) annual meeting, (CENT) annual meeting, Wolfe Research Semi Conference, TD Cowen Aerospace Defense Conference, American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons Conference and the Stifel Transport and Logistics Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 -1.7
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 78.4% of Issues Advancing, 19.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .70 -56.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$165.8M
  
• 205 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 62.6% (+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 70.0 +6.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.4 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.5 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,633.3 -.51%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 79.0 (Extreme Greed) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -4.1%
  
• Vix 13.6 +4.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.19 +46.9%

Monday Watch

X:

• @Pro_Trading - HUGE crowd of almost 11 people is on hand as @NikkiHaley rolls into South Carolina. (video)
• @simonateba - DEVELOPING: In Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina, young people are out in great numbers chanting, "WE LOVE TRUMP." WATCH. (video)
• @TPostMillennial - 'Gender affirming therapy' does not help youth mental health: American College of Pediatricians.
• @JunkScience - Sea level lying: 1. Satellite sea level measurements have an error just as large as the trend they claim to measure. 2. Climate scammers hide this by using a different color scale in their error maps. (maps)
• @Thekeksociety - ARE WE LIVING IN CRAZY TIMES OR WHAT? (video)
• @DrEliDavid - China is emitting more carbon than the entire developed world combined, but you will save the world with your paper straw. (graph)
• @catsscareme2021 - This is terrifying. Causes of Death for 15-49 Year Olds in the US(1991-2019). (graph)
• @ImMeme0 - This lady is spitting hard facts and she is FED UP!! (video)
• @JamesMelville - “If this treaty goes through, you can bury democracy altogether.” - European Parliament Member Christine Anderson on the WHO Pandemic Treaty. (video) Top 10 REASONS TO OPPOSE THE WHO "PANDEMIC TREATY". (list)
  
• @bambkb - NHS whistleblower, Dr. Tess Lawrie - “The #Covid #Vaccine is NOT fit for use in human beings” : “I’m a doctor and scientist - I’ve been an honorary researcher for the NHS for the last 10 years and I’ve served as an external consultant to the #WorldHealthOrganization since 2012” (video)
• @WallStreetApes - This Should Be The Most Viral Video On X. It’s INSANITY That The US Government Is Trying To Pass Another $95 Billion Spending Bill For Foreign Countries & NOTHING FOR AMERICANS, NOTHING FOR MAUI. Maui, Hawaii is NOT Forgotten!! (video) Please Do Yourself A Favor & Watch This. This Is Extremely Serious. Just Imagine How Far This Technology Has Come Reporting Like This Disappeared From The Media, Everyone Needs To Wake Up. (video)
• @RealJamesWoods -  'Migrant' walks through a subway station ruthlessly attacking everyone he passed. (video)
• @AgentTruthTell3 - Meanwhile: Yale Xiao Brad Raffensperger's CHINESE CAMPAIGN Manager, TIED to CCP LEADER Xi Jinping. ALERT DOMINION VOTING MACHINES COVER-UP IN #Georgia #Election2024.
• @Real_RobN - 25% of all 2020 mail-in-ballots, equaling 420, 987 CONFIRMED to have NO signature match. And this is just in Maricopa County alone. (video)
• @VigilantFox - Tucker Carlson’s 5 Key Takeaways from the Putin Interview. (video) RFK Jr. Wins the Day With an Epic Response to Being Called a "Conspiracy Theorist". (video)
• @BGatesIsaPsycho - Irish Farmer breaks down the Climate Scam Agenda & attack on farmers & agriculture. “Big Pharma aren’t being asked to cut product production”. (video) Wow - looks like the Farmer protest has spread as far as Turkey. Who had the farmers down as the ones fighting back against Globalist communism in 2024?
• @WallStreetSilv - "You see that guy in Canada?" "A 50 year old man that identifies as a 15 year old girl". "And got to change in a young girls locker room". "And got to compete with these young girls". "It's utter complete insanity". (video)
• @DiedSuddenly - They are developing plant-based 'vaccines' intended to be seamlessly integrated into the food supply, all without the public's awareness. (video)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,003,176 Reports(+2,451 from prior report) Through January 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 unch.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 127.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.4 +.01%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.7 -.05%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.7 unch. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.